Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 280833

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
433 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 433 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Today: A much quieter and more comfortable day is expected across
the Upper Peninsula. The shortwave that brought showers and
thunderstorms to the area Wednesday and Wednesday night will
continue to depart to the east today. Early this morning, there are
still a few rain showers lingering over the eastern U.P. and over
the south central U.P.; however, the trend will be for this to
diminish throughout the day as drier air continues to slowly work in
from the north. Subsidence and the dry air associated with high
pressure building south out of Canada will act to keep the drying
trend in place throughout the day. The only real caveat will be
another 500mb shortwave expected to slide southeastward from central
MN this morning into southern WI this afternoon. The only impact
expected from this may be lingering cloud cover near the WI border,
but that should be about it. High temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal with highs topping out around the low to mid
70s, coolest along Lake Superior with a north to northeasterly wind.

Tonight: A quiet cool night expected across the CWA. The drier air
will become more firmly in place across the Upper Peninsula tonight
as the high pressure center slides into the western CWA. This will
allow winds to become light and variable causing temperatures to
drop well below normal for much of the U.P. and especially the
inland west locations, where winds will be lighter. Otherwise, skies
will be mostly clear, except for some mid to high clouds possible
across the far south central areas as the aforementioned shortwave
slides slowly to the south and east. Where winds become light and
skies clear, temperatures could drop into the low to mid 40s, which
would be most likely over the inland west. Locations along the Great
Lakes will be a bit warmer as Lake Surface Temperatures in the near
shore are running in the mid to upper 60s for many locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a trough over the upper Great Lakes
00z Fri with embedded shortwaves in the trough. One is over southern
Lake Michigan, another over the western Dakotas and another over
Nebraska. These shortwaves do not have much moisture to work with
and will go dry for now from Thu night into Sat. Did not make too
many changes to the going forecast overall.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the Pacific
NW 12z Sun with a shortwave over the upper Great Lakes. The trough
moves into the northern Rockies and Northern Plains 12z Mon. A 500
mb ridge will build back into the central plains 12z Tue with the
trough topping the ridge over the northern plains. More troughing
moves into the northern Rockies 12z Wed with a cold front moving
through the area. Temperatures look to stay above normal for this
forecast period. Will have some low chance pops starting on Tue as a
warm front approaches the area and continue these into Wed as a cold
front moves towards the area.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 131 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Expect VFR conditions to prevail at all 3 TAF sites this fcst period
with a drying NE wind predominating ahead of hi pres bldg thru NW
Ontario toward the Upper Lks.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 433 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

High pressure, building into the Upper Great Lakes Region today,
will linger across Lake Superior into the upcoming weekend. This
will keep winds around or less than 15 kts into the weekend. The
next chance of winds approaching 20 knots would be early next week
as a cold front approaches the Upper Great Lakes region.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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