Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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050
FXUS63 KMQT 262352
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
752 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Still seeing drizzle and isolated-scattered rain shower along a SFC
trough oriented from eastern to north-central Upper MI. Will see
these showers diminish over the next few hours.

Definitely have seen a trend for precip to be mainly confined to the
SE-E portions of the CWA late tonight and Saturday as shown by all
models except the NAM (which brings the main area of precip right
over the central CWA). The NAM was not incorporated into the
forecast since it was an outlier. Some subtle shortwave energy
coupled with FGEN forcing looks to result in showers moving into the
southeastern CWA late tonight. That precip then should spread over
mainly the south to southeastern CWA through the rest of the day.
Also see some potential for light rain or drizzle over north-central
Upper MI as southeasterly flow upslopes into the area. Should see
showers move in or approach the far western CWA late in the day as
a strong shortwave moves into NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 449 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Beginning Sat night, shortwave over the Dakotas on Sat is forecast by
models to shift ene across the Upper Lakes Sat Night while reaching
Quebec Sun evening. Q-vector convergence and isentropic ascent ahead
of the shortwave will support lingering showers through Sat evening
mainly over the east half of Upper Mi. Transition to q-vector
divergence/subsidence from the west behind the shortwave later Sat
night should put an end to the showers. Limited instability will
keep thunder potential low.

There should be some lingering morning low clouds Sun, especially if
the NAM is correct, but developing confluent flow aloft and arrival
of larger scale drying/subsidence in the wake of shortwave will
result in increasing sunshine thru the day. 12z GFS remains an
outlier with its aggressive/quick development of a stronger WAA
pattern into the western Great Lakes already in the aftn, resulting
in pcpn developing across the w half of Upper Mi Sun aftn. This
solution was discarded in favor of the dry solution of majority of
models.

Next shortwave tracking from south central Canada Sun night to
northern Ontario by Tue morning will push a cold front across the
area, probably Mon night. While there could be some isold/sct
convection west in the waa pattern ahead of shortwave on Mon, better
chc of shra/tsra should occur Mon night in vicinity of cold front
and in combination with weak dynamics from passing shortwave.
Max temps Mon will rebound to 80F or above for much of the
area.

Models still trending toward greater pattern amplification for mid-
late next week with trof digging into New England and ridge
amplifying over the central conus. It appears most of 12z models have
front pushed far enough s with sfc high pres building more strongly
into the Upper Lakes to allow dry weather to prevail for Tue/Wed and
probably much of Thu. The 12z GFS and ECMWF then show a shortwave
rippling through the mid-upper level ridge in the Thu night/Fri time
frame. The developing waa pattern could lead to generation of sct
shra/tsra far west Thu night into Fri, spreading across much of the
rest of the CWA on Fri night.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 751 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

High pressure sliding overhead tonight will keep conditions VFR at
all the TAF sites. Mid to high clouds will increase late tonight as
the high center slides east and winds turn south southeasterly ahead
of another system. This next system will bring rain and lower
ceilings toward the end of the TAF period, especially near KSAW
where upslope southeast winds will help produce lowered ceilings.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 355 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Expect winds through this weekend and early next week to remain at
20 kts or less as the overall pressure gradient will remain weak.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Titus



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