000
FXUS63 KMQT 282016
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
416 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 415 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over nrn
Indiana and a ridge from the wrn plains into nrn Ontario. At the
surface ne winds prevailed between a ridge into nw Ontario and the
low over IN. Although the deeper moisture had departed, radar showed
isold/sct -shra over the n and w portions of the cwa as 850 mb temps
around 5C,,daytime heating, and cyclonic flow with low level
moisture supported the light pcpn.

Tonight, expect that abundant moisture below 850 mb, and 850 mb
temps remaining around 5C (water temps from 11C-15C) will be enough
to sustain some isold -shra into the north and west, downwind from
ene to ne flow off the lake, mainly over the Huron Mountains and
from IWD to Ontonagon. Otherwise, temps will drop into the mid and
upper 40s inland and around low to mid 50s near the Great Lakes.

Thursday, mostly sunny skies over the east half and decreasing
clouds over the west as the sfc ridge builds into the area will
allow temps to climb into the mid 60s west and to near 70 south and
east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

Dry wx accompanying sfc hi pres wl dominate the the beginning of the
medium range period. But as the closed lo pres responsible for the
recent pcpn lifts fm the OH River Valley back over Lower MI btwn a
deepening wrn trof and a bldg rdg off the e coast, some showers may
return as early as Sat and linger thru the weekend, especially over
se Upr MI. Any weekend showers wl give way to dry wx early next week
as another hi pres rdg dominates under a bldg upr rdg to the e of
the slow moving wrn trof. Although Thu ngt could be chilly
especially over the interior w under the initial hi pres rdg, above
normal temps should dominate the medium/extended range period.

Thu ngt...Sfc hi pres rdg axis stretching fm near James Bay into the
Upr Lks and area of mid lvl dry air to the n of nearly stnry closed
lo in the OH River Valley wl bring tranquil wx to Upr MI. Expect the
lowest min temps that may dip into the 30s at the interior cold
spots over the w under axis of lowest pwat arnd 0.5 inch/light
winds. Tended aob the lo end of guidance in this area for the lo
temps. A steadier e wind under the tighter pres gradient btwn the hi
pres rdg and the lo pres to the s as well as perhaps some hi clds
closer to the closed lo wl limit the diurnal temp fall over the se,
especially near the warming influence of Lk MI.

Fri...The closed lo to the sse is progged to move slowly to the n.
Although the deep lyr forcing associated with this disturbance wl
remain to the se, expect some incrsg hi clds as h5 hgts fall slowly.
The area from Ironwood to the Keweenaw wl see the most unfiltered
sunshine. h85 temps fcst arnd 10C wl support max temps climbing at
least near 70 away fm the moderating influence of the lks in a slowly
incrsg ene wind.

Fri ngt into Sun...As an upr trof deepens over the w and an upr rdg
blds in the wrn Atlantic Ocean, the sly wind component btwn these
larger scale features is progged to lift the closed lo back nwd and
over Lower MI. The medium range guidance is in good agreement
showing incrsg mid lvl rh but hints the most sgnft deep lyr forcing
wl tend to remain to the ese of the cwa. Since the initially dry
llvls associated with the slowly retreating sfc hi pres rdg wl have
to be overcome, suspect pcpn wl have a hard time overspreading the
area, especially the nw. Plan to go with no more than chc pops, hiest
over the se cwa closer to the closed lo center. Although the clds wl
tend to hold max temps not too far fm normal, min temps on Fri ngt
and Sat ngt should run well above avg.

Sun ngt thru Wed...The closed lo is progged to exit to the e on Sun
ngt/Mon as an upr rdg blds over the Great Lks to the e of the
deepening Rockies trof. Any lingering pcpn should diminish late on
Sun as the closed lo/mid lvl mstr exit to the e and a sfc hi pres
rdg axis to the se of Hudson Bay hi pres blds over the wrn Great
Lks. Then expect dry wx on Mon into at least Wed as the sprawling
sfc hi center blds toward New England/the Cndn Maritimes. The incrsg
sly flow btwn this hi and falling mslp in the Plains ahead of the
deep wrn trof wl advect unseasonably warm air into the Upr Lks. h85
temps are progged to reach as hi as 10-12C by Tue. Showers ahead of
the sfc lo pres/cold fnt ahead of the slow moving wrn trof may
arrive by Wed.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 142 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

East to northeast winds north of departing low pressure system will
keep some showers going along with lower cigs across the area into
this afternoon. Cigs may be as low as LIFR at IWD before trending
MVFR. At CMX MVFR cigs will trend to lower VFR late this aftn.
Clouds may scatter out this evening at CMX and SAW but should stay
bkn-ovc at IWD. Overall looking at MVFR conditions tonight but could
even dip to IFR or lower at IWD. Although clouds should move out
late tonight, There is some uncertainty when the cigs will give way
to VFR at IWD Thursday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected at CMX/SAW by late evening.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 415 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

Weakening low pressure will result in 15-25 kt winds late this
afternoon diminishing to less than 20 kts tonight. A general weak
pressure gradient lingering into the weekend should keep east to
northeast winds at 20 kts or less.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-
     006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB