Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 140857
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/PV
ANOMALY UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN. PV ADVECTION AND 290-295K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED NARROW LINE OF SHRA FROM
WRN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND THEN EXIT NE OF THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PV ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS SUGGEST MUCH OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL STAY ALONG AND NORTH OF PROJECTED VORT TRACK. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI WITH
HIGHER CHC POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.

TONIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING ALREADY NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT SHRA OVER ERN COUNTIES TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS
EVENING FOR ERN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING/PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOW
TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE WRN INTERIOR AND
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE ERN INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FOR MON...A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE BEHIND A SFC
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS AHEAD ON SUN NIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
A 1022MB SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS NOSES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED ON MON. COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OR RIGHT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH PASSES...WHICH MAY PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND MOVES SLOWLY E THROUGH MID WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TUE THROUGH THU WILL BE MAINLY N/NE OF THE CWA...BUT
SOME LOWER LEVEL FEATURES MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN. MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE N/NNE TUE NIGHT
AND THEN STALL OVER THE AREA WHILE DIMINISHING WED INTO THU. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED SINCE A
SFC HIGH MOVES JUST N/NE OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU...RESULTING
IN A DRIER AIRMASS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FRONT MON
NIGHT AND WED NIGHT.

THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FRI INTO SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR JUST A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W ON
SAT. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS FOR FRI AND SAT...WHICH IS
TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/TRANSITIONAL FLOW. GENERAL
CONSENSUS DOES SHOW WAA FRI INTO EARLY SAT...BRINGING A WARMER
AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 13C-15C. PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN THE WAA...POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HINTED AT BY
MODELS...AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC LOW OR TROUGH. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT
OF CLEARING...MAY SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE 70S IN SPOTS BOTH
DAYS...BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD COOLER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...WHICH HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
70.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UNDER RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ON SUN...AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
TROF SHOULD BRING SCT -SHRA INTO NW UPPER MI BY AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED
A VCSH MENTION AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A LOW PRES TROF OVER NRN MN WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS
S TO SW WINDS OF 10-20 KT SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS TO 25 KTS LATE MON NIGHT THRU EARLY
WED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN BE THE RULE LATER WED THRU THU
HAS HIGH PRES MOVE SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS





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