000
FXUS63 KMQT 081026
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
526 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING FROM NRN
CA INTO NEVADA. AT THE SFC...WRLY WINDS PREVAILED THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN LAKES. VERY COLD AIR REMAINED
WITH MID AFTERNOON READINGS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 5F TO 15F RANGE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. VIS SATELLITE INDICATED BACKING WINDS OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE LES BANDS BECOMING ALIGNED FROM SW-NE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT LES BANDS INTO THE KEWEENAW TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATED
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONV AND LES FROM AT LEAST CMX
NORTHWARD...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER GIVEN THE SATELLITE TRENDS. SO...THE
ONGOING HEADLINES WERE RETAINED FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BE LIFTED
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. IF A DOMINANT BAND CAN REDEVELOP AND
BRUSH THE WRN SHORE OF THE KEWEENAW...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

WITH A PERIOD OF FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN INTERIOR RANGING TO AROUND ZERO
OVER THE INTERIOR EAST. WINDS INTO THE 5 T0 10 MPH RANGE TIL LATE
TONIGHT CAUSED WIND CHILL READINGS TO DIP TO NEAR 25 BELOW...SO THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS RETAINED. THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT COULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF A BIT OR RISE
SLIGHTLY TOWARD 12Z SUN.

SUN...ANY REMAINING LES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF KEWEENAW
AS WINDS BACK IN THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN. A BROAD AREA OF
280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW FROM MN/WI INTO
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS IN
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS
BY 00Z/09 WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA WILL BRING
REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN AFFECT LOCATIONS THAT SAW PLENTY THE LAST FEW
DAYS AS W TO WNW FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY CONTINUOUS. A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY REAL SHOT OF VERY LIGHT SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE
DEEP EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE
MAIN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT.

THE NEXT INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
CWA BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. H8 TEMPS FALLING
TO -21 TO -23C BY THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
RISING TO 7KFT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FAIRLY PERSISTENT DOMINATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AFFECTING NORTHERN
HOUGHTON AND SOUTHERN KEWEENAW COUNTIES. BLUSTERY WEST WINDS OF
20-30MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS POOR...BUT IF
THE BAND REMAINS ANCHORED IN ONE AREA FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WARNING CRITERIA SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF THIS
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH POSSIBLE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR NORTHERN HOUGHTON
AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...SO BLOWING SNOW
WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM. OVERALL...EXPECTATION IS THAT SOME LOCATIONS
COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
EVENING...WITH EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THE BAND REMAINS IN PLACE.
THROUGH...WITH A SLIGHT VEERING OF THE ABOVE-SFC WINDS AHEAD OF A
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE BAND WILL LIKELY
WAVER SOMEWHAT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SUFFICIENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD LEADS TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE GOING FORECAST. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT OTHER THAN MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND
QPF. THE SECOND OF MULTIPLE WAVES ON THE DEEP TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
CROSS UPPER MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
WILL BE PRESENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SO ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH
OF THE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT LES OFF ON THE KEWEENAW FOR
AT LEAST A SHORT TIME FRAME TUESDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT HAVE A HIGH COMPONENT OF
VARIABILITY WITH THEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE CWA WHILE HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF TUESDAYS SYSTEM FILTER INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH
COLDEST TEMPS TO AROUND -10F INTERIOR CENTRAL AS THAT AREA LOOKS TO
HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF UNINTERRUPTED COOLING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...YET ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM...THIS TIME WITH H8 TEMPS PUSHING
-25C BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS WEST ALONG THE
WI BORDER FAIL TO GET ABOVE ZERO ON WEDNESDAY. VERY COLD TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS TO -30F
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTERIOR WEST. WINDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL HEADLINES MAY NOT BE NECESSARY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN THROUGH THIS
STRETCH...ONLY THIS TIME WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LES TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE KEWEENAW AND LOCATIONS EAST OF
MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SETUP LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DOMINATE BAND
AFFECTING BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES QUICKLY AT THIS
POINT...WITH THE ECMWF PULLING DOWN ONE MORE ARCTIC AIR MASS WHILE
THE GFS TRENDS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. EITHER WAY...A BRIEF ROUND
OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TO EMPLOY A CONSENSUS FORECAST AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

WITH A DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE AREA...AN OFFSHORE WIND
DIRECTION AT KSAW WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING
HRS. AT KIWD...WINDS HAVE VEERED JUST ENOUGH OFF THE DECK TO BRING
LAKE STRATOCU (MVFR CIGS) INTO THE AREA. AS WINDS BACK AGAIN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS...STRATOCU WILL CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
CONTINUING THRU THE MORNING. AT KCMX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE EARLY MORNING AS WINDS WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO VARY GENERALLY BTWN IFR AND MVFR THRU
THE NIGHT THOUGH BRIEF LIFR POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.
WITH LOSS OF ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WINDS
BACK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. IN THE AFTN...NEXT DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW. EXPECT -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO SPREAD NE TO
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. WITH KSAW
CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE...IFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP THERE IN THE EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

EXPECT BRIEF BREAK IN STRONGER WINDS OVER LK SUPERIOR LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 25 KTS. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...EXPECT
THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND WEST GALES TO DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE GALES FROM
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ012-013.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ264>267.

  GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA