000
FXUS63 KMQT 260845
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THIS
MORNING...AND REVISIT THE POTENTIAL OF CANCELING IT EARLY LATER
THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP AS IS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHTER WINDS
ARE KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS FROM GETTING INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT/S
STILL COLD WITH WAKEFIELD COMING IN AT AROUND 08Z WITH -29 AND
WATERSMEET NOT TOO FAR BEHIND AT -24F. CLOSER TO THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 5MPH...AND A LES CLOUDS
ROLLING IN...TEMPERATURE ROSE SLIGHTLY AND WIND CHILLS OF
-10 TO -20F HAVE BEEN MORE COMMON.

IT/S AMAZING HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE COLD NIGHT LAST NIGHT AND
COLD DAY YESTERDAY HAD ON THE ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AND AS A
RESULT THE INTENSITY/EXTENT OF LES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR JUST FEW
STREAMERS OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS...FAR N LAKE SUPERIOR...JUST E OF ISLE ROYALE...AND
JUST S OF MICHIPICOTEN ISLAND. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND
COLD AIR...EXPECT MORE ICE/THICKER ICE TO FORM. EVEN ONCE LES HAS
BEEN ABLE TO SLIDE ONSHORE...THE INLAND EXTENT HAS BEEN MINIMAL
THANKS TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/NE MT/W ND WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WENT CLOSER TO THE MAV
GUIDANCE FOR WIND DIRECTION THIS MORNING...AS IT WAS BETTER KEYED
INTO THE MORE N FLOW...AND NOT THE MORE NW FLOW COMING OUT OF MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. ATTEMPTED TO TRACK THE STREAMERS OF LES
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WINDS SLOWLY TURN MORE OUT
OF THE NW. EXPECT MAINLY SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY...WITH A FEW
HIGHER READINGS POSSIBLE S CENTRAL.

FOR TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL SINK TO E NEBRASKA AND IA WITH THE RIDGE
/ALBEIT FLATTENED/ STILL COVER UPPER MI. A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE S HUDSON BAY LOW WILL ALSO BE A NEAR-PERMANENT FEATURE OVER
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE -20 TO -
25C RANGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. CONTINUED ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO -20F AGAIN OVER E GOGEBIC AND
IRON COUNTIES. WITH THAT A COUPLE OF SITES MAY GET CLOSE TO -25F FOR
WIND CHILL/APPARENT TEMP READINGS...BUT NOT AS MANY AS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A QUIET END OF THE WORK WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND IS IN STORE
FOR UPPER MICHIGAN...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS
THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
SATURDAY. WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES MODERATING ALOFT (RISING FROM
-20C THURSDAY EVENING TO -14C ON SATURDAY)...EXPECT BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS TO BEGIN TO TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY NEARING 20 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATING
850MB TEMPS...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A GENERALLY ICE
COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY (ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL CU ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON).

FOR THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUICK DUSTING OF
SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW. BEHIND THIS WAVE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO ANOTHER QUIET
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THE AREA WILL BE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO EJECT SHORTWAVES
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KSAW AND KCMX FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KCMX COULD SEE A BRIEF HOUR OR TWO OF
LOWER LAKE CLOUDS MOVE IN UNDER A NW FLOW BUT AT THIS POINT WL KEEP
THE PREVAILING CONDITION VFR. JUST ENOUGH OPEN WATER NORTH OF KIWD
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THERE OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. WINDS BACKING WNW THU AFTERNOON
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

DUE TO THE COLD AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS...MUCH OF THE AREA OF OPEN
WATER FROM THE GUSTY SW AND THEN NW WINDS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
HAS FROZEN AGAIN. WAVE HEIGHTS/FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MINIMAL...GIVEN THE SMALL FETCH OF ANY OPEN WATER.

HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER S SASKATCHEWAN AND E MONTANA WILL SINK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE TIME. EXPECT A LOW OVER N
HUDSON BAY ON SUNDAY TO SLIDE ACROSS N QUEBEC MONDAY. THIS WILL DRAG
A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM YET ANOTHER HIGH SETTLING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF