000
FXUS63 KMQT 280821
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
321 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP
TROF ALONG THE E COAST. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS JUST
UPSTREAM OVER NRN ONTARIO. SO...THERE IS NO PCPN OF NOTE TODAY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES OFF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
MENOMINEE COUNTY...AND RECENTLY FLURRIES HAVE APPEARED ON KMQT RADAR
IMAGERY IN CNTRL UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER
SRN QUEBEC WITH RIDGE EXTENDING BACK THRU THE UPPER LAKES. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN A SUNNY DAY OVER ERN UPPER
MI...ROUGHLY E OF A MUNISING-ESCANABA LINE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW UPPER
MI DID HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLIER TODAY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THE BIG IMPACT
THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON TEMPS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
TO START THE EVENING...THE ERN FCST AREA WILL BE COLDEST TONIGHT.
LOWERED MINS TO AROUND 0F IN THAT AREA...BUT IT COULD BE 5 OR MORE
DEGREES COLDER IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THRU THE WHOLE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS
STREAKING SE WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY FROM LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING NE IN
DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THIS WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON COOLING AND PROBABLY
LEAD TO TEMPS RISING SOME OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA...THE EXPANSE OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING W...SW AND S OVER MUCH OF
MN AND WI SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNDER
LOW-LEVEL S TO SW WINDS. EVEN IF LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME
AREAS...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-20F RANGE.

ON WED....ONE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO
THE DAKOTAS/MANITOBA WHILE A SECOND MOVES FROM WY/CO TO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE NRN WAVE...WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ESE THRU THE DAY UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET. WITH THE FOCUS OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT JUST TO THE N
AND WITH DRIER AIR HOLDING ON AT LOW LEVELS...THE MAIN STREAK OF
SNOW WILL REMAIN N OF HERE WED AFTN. MODEL AGREEMENT IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER THE SRN EDGE OF THE SNOW MAY CLIP THE AREA. BASED ON
STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILES ON FCST
SOUNDINGS...THE KEWEENAW AND FAR ERN FCST AREA MAY GET CLIPPED BY A
LITTLE -SN. INCLUDED ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS TO REFLECT THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LWR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA.
THUS...EXPECT GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THREE PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE SOUTHERN TWO WAVES WILL BE SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE INVERTED TROUGH CROSSING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TIED TO THE NOSE OF THE
850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
THINKING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE POCKET OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 925-750MB.
THEN AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT SNOW TO QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THAT INITIAL PRECIPITATION
STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LAND AREA INITIALLY...HAVE TRENDED
QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL (1-2IN).
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HOUGHTON TO MANISTIQUE...HAVE AMOUNTS IN
THE 2-3.5 INCH RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO FOR
THOSE AREAS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TERRAIN INFLUENCE TO HELP KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SNOW BELTS UNTIL THE COLD AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASES DELTA-T VALUES TOWARDS THE LOW 20S
BY THURSDAY EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS OF LIMITED ICE CRYSTALS (AND
THUS FREEZING DRIZZLE) OVER THE WEST AS THAT DEEP MOISTURE
DEPARTS...BUT THINK IT IS TOO MARGINAL TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

WITH THAT COLD AIR ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL TREND POPS UP TO LIKELY/DEFINITE VALUES
FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE
SNOW IS EXPECTED...THERE ARE A COUPLE LIMITING FACTORS FOR HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. FIRST...THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
KEEP THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 5KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE
MUCH OF THE CLOUD WILL BE IN OR JUST ABOVE THE DGZ...THINK THE
FRACTURING OF THE FLAKES FROM THE GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SNOW RATIOS
LOWER (BUT BE BETTER AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES). THUS...HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-4 INCHES IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELTS DURING THAT
PERIOD. AS THE HIGH MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
WINDS TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AND LOWER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TOWARDS 4KFT. THEREFORE...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING WITH
THIS FEATURE...SO WILL GO WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK DUSTING OF
SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE. BEHIND THE TROUGH...COLD AIR WILL FILTER
BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. ONCE AGAIN...THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 5KFT AND KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. ONE ITEM TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT
THIS MAY RAISE INVERSION HEIGHTS TOWARDS 7-10KFT...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT. WHEN THAT
OCCURS...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO THE
MID -20S) THE CLOUD WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE DGZ AND SUPPORT SMALL
FLAKES THAT ARE HIGHLY EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITY. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY MORNING TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS FOR THE FAVORED WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY (WINDS NEAR
WESTERLY BY TUESDAY EVENING). WON/T MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS
POINT...AS AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT MAY NEED TO ADDRESS
THE END OF THE WEEK LAKE EFFECT AND THE SUN-TUE LAKE EFFECT IN THE
FUTURE DUE TO THE LIKELY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE STRONGER BANDS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF WI AND MN AND ALSO MID CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FROM ONTARIO...MVFR CLOUD DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FCST PD AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR BY WED AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING
FROM SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN FROM ONTARIO WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA WED EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL BE AT KCMX WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING WITH DISTURBANCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH N-NNW GALES OF 35-40KTS.

EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO THIS MORNING TO SHIFT E AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE N PLAINS WILL MOVE TO AROUND CHICAGO ON THURSDAY...AND INTO N
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW MOVES FROM S SASKATCHEWAN
TO N LAKE SUPERIOR AND QUEBEC. IN THEIR WAKE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
OVER S CENTRAL CANADA TO FOLLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY...USHERING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY...A LOW
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL THEN PUSH
OVER SE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. N WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-30KTS
SATURDAY-SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER W CANADA ON
SUNDAY...AND EXTEND A RIDGE INTO ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF