Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 300806
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
406 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RA GIVEN TEMPS AOA 32F OVER THE W
HALF...ENHANCED CLDS SHOWN ON STLT IMAGERY INDICATING DEEP MSTR THRU
THE DGZ WITH STEADIER PCPN IMPACTING MAINLY THE E HALF AS WELL AS
SHORT TERM MODEL SNDGS THAT SHOW ABSENCE OF ANY ELEVATED WARM LYR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.

MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S

FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

GUSTY NW WINDS AT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE WITH APRCH OF
SFC HI PRES RDG. DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD THIS EVNG. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07



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