Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 280718
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A PRETTY TRANQUIL LATE AUGUST FRIDAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY. SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
WI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SHIELD WILL MAKE IT WITH THIS FEATURE.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT JUST THE FAR SOUTHERN U.P. WILL BE BRUSHED WITH
THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME THE
DISTURBANCE IS PASSING BY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CANADA IN WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

WITH MOST OF THE U.P. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE LONG TERM...FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. A SHORTWAVE IS SET TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE 00Z/27
ECMWF IS DEEPEST AND FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WITH RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE 12Z/27 GFS IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER AND
FARTHER S...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA DRY. THE 12Z/27 GEM AND 12Z/27
NAM MATCH CLOSER TO THE GFS...BUT DO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE SRN
CWA. WILL TEND TO FAVOR A GFS/NAM/GEM CONSENSUS GIVEN HOW MUCH OF AN
OUTLIER THE ECMWF IS. THIS RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS OVER SCENTRAL UPPER
MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 00Z SUN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM SUN
THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION WED OR THU IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROUND
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. THE AIRMASS WILL BE ON
THE RISE...HOVERING AROUND 20C FROM LATE MON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS BEING 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FROM MON ON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL GET INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE.
LOOKS LIKE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRES RIDGE MORE FIRMLY IN CONTROL.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...MZ


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