Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 270842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
442 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 439 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

Trends in regional radar loop over last few hours have shown a
diminishing trend to rain/snow across east half of Upper Michigan
well to the north of sfc low moving across far southern lower
Michigan. Based on obs and latest radar imagery, about the only snow
left is over far east cwa vcnty of Newberry. MDOT web cam images
early this morning showed snow coming down at good clip for eastern
cwa and vsby at ERY dropped blo 2sm for a time. Looks like roads
remained wet though with any snow accums staying mainly on the grass.

WV loop and RAP analysis show shortwave trough that caused the
rain/snow early this morning is centered over far eastern Upper
Michigan with shortwave ridging over western Upr Michigan. Even
though secondary shortwave trough is well to northwest near Lk
Winnipeg in Manitoba band of moisture and mid-level q-vector
convergence and a hint of steeper mid level lapse rates has supported
a batch of showers over northern MN this morning. Timing this out on
to the east, could see light rain/snow showers over far west cwa
before daybreak and over rest of northern half of cwa into the
morning before the primary forcing with the wave lifts north and
this precip fades away. Another area of possible precip today will be
over scntrl cwa as east-northeast winds on north side of h85 low over
northern Lower Michigan support scattered lake effect there this
morning as h85 temps of -3c flow over northern Lk Michigan water
temps of 15c. Ptype with the lake effect should be mainly rain due
mostly to near sfc temps well into the 30s or lower 40s over northern
Lk Michigan. Winds in blyr backing more northerly late morning into
early aftn should end the possible lake effect. After secondary
shortwave passes by early this aftn, weak sfc ridge quickly moves
across which allows winds to become more sw-s as area will be on west
side of the ridge and on the south edge of sfc low crossing northern
Ontario. Even with southwest winds, plenty of low clouds should keep
temps in the 40s for most areas today.

Quiet tonight with steady sw winds as low pressure moves over the
Northern Plains. Coolest temps tonight will be over far east where
it could dip blo freezing. Temps above freezing elsewhere with winds
keeping the temps up. With the developing warm air advection pattern
could be light precip try to form late across Lk Superior and maybe
over Keweenaw. Ptype all rain though as sfc temps for those areas
will be upper 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016

Made no significant changes to blended initialization as blends
handled low impact weather satisfactorily and accounted for
uncertainty in the extended. Only hazards of interest (with any
level of confidence) are potential for breezy southerly winds Fri
and gusty southerly winds on Monday, both of which the blends
represent well given the uncertainty.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 138 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

IFR ceilings continue at KSAW as easterly flow continues there. With
winds shifting a little more northeast and decreasing later
overnight expect light snow/rain to come to an end with ceilings
improving from IFR into MVFR during the early daylight hours. KCMX
will stay MVFR through the forecast while KIWD will start of MVFR and
perhaps IFR early on and then improve to VFR before 0Z Friday.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 439 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

SE winds mainly 20 kts or less today as pressure gradient briefly
relaxes. SW winds increase late tonight ahead of developing low
pressure system over the northern Plains. South winds will increase
to 20-30 kts on Fri, strongest on eastern Lk Superior where gale
gusts could be possible late Fri afternoon. The low is expected to
cross over or near Lake Superior Fri night, shifting the winds to NW
to 20-30 knots late Fri night into Saturday. Winds will gradually
diminish to under 20 knots through the day Sunday. Another round of
strong S-SE winds to 30 kts are expected on Mon out ahead of low
pressure tracking across the northern Plains. Gales may occur over
eastern sections Mon aftn into Mon evening. The low will cross Lk
Superior by Tue morning shifting the winds to W and there may be
gales during this time as well.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...
  Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for



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