Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 010919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
419 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW COUPLED
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AROUND -18C TO -20C HAS ALLOWED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. INITIALLY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALLOWING BETTER SNOW GROWTH WITH A THICKER SNOW GROTH
AREA WITHIN THE DGZ. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
4KFT AND 5KFT THIS AFETERNOON WHICH IS ALSO VERIFIED BY THE MQT VAD
WIND PROFILE THIS AFETERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED GOOD SNOWFLAKE SIZE
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF FLUFFY SNOW ON A
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND. DRY AIR REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
FARTHER SOUTH AROUND 00Z/01 AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL TO
AROUND 3KFT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REDUCE SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECT
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SHIFTING THE SNOWBANDS TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS. AGAIN...REDUCED
MOISTURE...LOWERED INVERSION HEIGHTS ALONG WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WILL HELP TO KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS IN CHECK ACROSS THE U.P. WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FAVORED SNOW
BELTS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHERLY WIND
FAVORED LOCATIONS...WITH AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

GREATEST RISK OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED IN NW WIND
SNOWBELTS WED THROUGH WED NIGHT AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT. MAY SEE WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA THU MORNING.

MON MORNING WILL SEE ONGOING LES IN THE N TO NW SNOWBELTS AS 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -22C. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...BUT WILL BE PUSHED QUICKLY E AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES/DEVELOPS INTO THE AREA ON MON. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE RIDGE SUPPRESSES SOUTHWARD...W TO WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW RESULTS BY MON AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT
WHEN ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS ADDED TO THE TROUGH /PUSHING IT SLIGHTLY
SE/ AND FLOW VEERS TO A WNW DIRECTION. THE FLOW DIRECTION FAVORS THE
KEWEENAW FOR THE BEST SNOW...BUT EXACTLY HOW LONG THE STRONGER
BAND/S/ LINGER IN ANY LOCATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN. AT THIS
TIME...MODEL WIND FIELDS DO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SEEING A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW...ESPECIALLY THE NRN/WRN KEWEENAW...LATE
MON INTO TUE MORNING. THIS IS BACKED UP BY MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM
AND GFS. THE 00Z/01 NAM HAS UP TO 0.15 INCHES...WHICH WOULD BE
UNDERDONE IF THE SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...AND THE 00Z/01 GFS HAS 0.07
INCHES OF QPF...WHICH WOULD BE WELL UNDERDONE DUE TO MODEL
RESOLUTION.

WNW FLOW LES IS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH
LINGERS...BUT A COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN WITH A SYSTEM LATE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AND WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS PROBABLE ALONG THE FRONT WHILE IN
THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODERATE LES WILL CONTINUE
AT LEAST INTO WED NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AS LOW AS -27C. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN CONDITIONS MODIFY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF BRINGS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR WITH WSW FLOW BY
12Z THU WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER IN DOING SO. WITH
THAT COLD OF AN AIRMASS...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SMALL SNOW FLAKES
THAT ARE EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VIS. COULD SEE HEADLINE WORTHY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS.

LOOKS LIKE WSW FLOW AND WAA CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT...BUT MODELS
VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM RUN TO RUN AND FROM MODEL TO MODEL AFTER
THAT...SO WILL JUST USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR FRI THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PERIODIC AT SAW
AND CMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE WILL ALLOW A
FEW GUSTS TO REACH 35KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDA NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KEC


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