Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 310551
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1251 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WARM/MOIST ENVIRON FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP/DISSIPATE/REDEVELOP IN
AFTERNOON HEAT...BUT NO STRONG DYNAMICAL ENERGY MEANS MAINLY PULSE
AND LINE SEGMENTS SUB SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN PRIMARY FOCUS. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WIND GUST HOWEVER.

THIS HIGH POP REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS UPPER
LOW OPENS OUT ON ITS MOVE ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEYS AND DRIVES COLD FRONT THRU FOR PASSAGE. BY
MIDNIGHT/THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM BEHIND
FRONT...AS IT SHIFTS EAST.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY DOES LIFT ACROSS MEAN UPPER TROF AND THRU
OUR AREA TMRW...SO WE`LL HAVE TO LINGER POPS THRU SUNDAY...BUT
THEY`LL BE ON THE DOWNTICK IN COMPARISON.

HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE MOVING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY AS
LOWS IN THE 60S RECENTLY NUDGE DOWN INTO THE 50S AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BECOME POOR. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE ALL SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH. BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS...THE TROUGH WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE MODELS KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW VERY WEAK UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THEY INDICATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP.

AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST IS A BIT WETTER LATE IN THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
CONTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE
MOISTURE POOLING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
THURSDAY. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEAK
AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TUESDAY AND AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES OUT...HIGH
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
CREEP UPWARD AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE
SURFACE LOW/STORM SYSTEM. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS IN THE NORTHEAST BEFORE DROPPING OFF SOME BEFORE
DAYBREAK. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY HELP THE
LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE AT KPAH AND POSSIBLY KCGI. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECIDED TO KEEP
CEILINGS NO BETTER THAN MVFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY AND
EVENING...BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS MAY DROP
BACK TO IFR LEVELS BEFORE 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS


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