Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 250722
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
222 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Still wading through the myriad of differing model solutions to try
to figure out convection initiation and potential movement of
ongoing systems. Several rounds of convection can be expected for
the remainder of the work week with west southwest flow continuing
with shortwaves moving through, coupled with persistent warm, moist
and unstable southerly low level flow. Several of the short term
models are hinting at the current MCS over Kansas and convection
over OK to eventually head in our direction (or maybe remnant
outflow boundaries) by later this morning or this afternoon. We`ll
see. To go ahead and trust any one model solution at this point
would probably not be too smart given how all over the place their
solutions have been. Keeping lower end POPs and maintaining a
watchful eye and remaining vigilant for signs of incoming or
developing batches of convection looks to be the way to go here at
least in the short term. Most of the better upper level support for
convection is going to pass us by to the north. So whatever passes
overhead today that might aid in any local storm development will be
rather weak, hence the smaller type POPs. With hardly any flow
aloft, any storms may be slow movers, like yesterday and could
produce some heavy rainfall/flooding issues.

Looking at instability parameters and lapse rates...would think that
any convection that could develop early today would be in our
western counties. However, that changes during the afternoon, when
the entire area is fairly primed. Dewpoints climb to near 70 this
afternoon.

There are some signs that tonight may be like last tonight was,
fairly dry. But there are hints that another complex of storms might
take aim on us again on late tonight and into Thursday. Models have
just so much noise at times though, it is hard to really discern
what is real. However, we will be watching the evolution and
progress of an upper level low currently over southern CA. Chances
for convection will continue Thursday night into Friday as the mid
level flow backs as this upper low digs into the four corners region
and eventually into the central Plains. Again, with no synoptic
scale features to latch onto, precipitation chances will be
dependent on small disturbances not resolved by models or outflow
boundaries or MCV type circulations. So, unfortunately, those will
plans this week will have to make sure they keep a close eye on the
weather, as specific forecast details will not be nailed down too
far out in time.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Above average confidence in the long term due to little change in
the synoptic pattern through the period.

Unsettled weather continues in the long term. With some exception,
the surface and upper air patterns show very little change through
the period. Synoptically, upper level low pressure remains over the
southwest US putting our region in southwest flow aloft with a
series of upper level disturbances ejecting from the low and passing
across or just north and west of the mid Mississippi valley. In
addition, surface high pressure over the southeast US will keep a
southerly wind component in the lower levels producing a moisture
rich environment (dewpoints in the low to mid 60s), thus increasing
boundary level instability.

The combination of moisture, instability, and the lift caused by the
impulses of upper level energy will no doubt produce multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms. Although there is mention of
precipitation over all or part of our CWA every period, probabilities
for the most part will decrease each night due to lack of heating
and lowered instability, especially Saturday night and Sunday night.

High temperatures in the long term period will generally top out in
the mid 80s with overnight lows bottoming out in the low to mid 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Little change to previous thinking. The TAFs are VFR and dry.
South winds will prevail through the period, and a few gusts into
the teens can be expected through the day. A large area of
convection over central Kansas is forecast to approach our area by
18Z, so if it holds together, some precipitation and possibly TS
will need to be added most likely to KCGI and KPAH for the
afternoon. Confidence in the evolution of this system is too low
to mention anything in the forecast at this time.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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