Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 301851
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
151 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LARGE AREA OF SMOKE ESTIMATED TO BE 10-15K/FT THICK ACROSS THE
REGION SLOWING CU DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS STILL CLIMBING SO NOT ENOUGH
TO AFFECT THAT ELEMENT. CU SEEN BECOMING MORE PREVALENT IN WEST
KY. COULD BE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HERE. MEANWHILE ENERGY MOVING
SE MAY BRING CONVECTION AS WELL TO THE KEVV TRI-STATE REGION LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH LOWER POPS WEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLIM
POPS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK FROM SW IL INTO SEMO. STILL HAVE A
SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC FOR OUR NE COUNTIES. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS DECENT FOR LATE JUNE. QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY AS
BEST CAPES ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST KY AND TO OUR NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FAA
(FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH) PRODUCT. MODELS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY
PIN POINTING MCS DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION AND WHERE BEST QPF AXIS
WILL ACTUALLY END UP. SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES A WATCH AT
THIS TIME. THAT...AND WE THINK PROBLEMS WOULD REALLY NOT DEVELOP
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WE CAN STILL ACHIEVE SOME LEAD
TIME IF WE NEED ONE. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE GIVEN
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...SUPPRESSED CAPE/INSTABILITY GIVEN PERIODIC
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. CHANCE IS NOT ZERO...BUT NOT TOO HIGH. BEST
POPS WILL TRANSLATE SE THUR/THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS WILL KEEP
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SURFACE REFLECTION OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MEANDER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE GOOD THING IS
THERE IS LOW QPF EXPECTED WITH THE EXTENDED. OF COURSE WITH PW`S
RANGING BETWEEN 1.5" AND 2" ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. LI`S REMAIN NEGATIVE WITH CAPE`S REMAINING
1K AND 2K J/KG2...SO A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IN
ADDITION WITH A FRONT IN THE AREA ALONG WITH ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

AS FOR TEMPS THEY WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY BUT WARM TO
AROUND NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A BLANKET OF SMOKE OVER OUR REGION IS DUE TO WILDFIRES IN THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. PER TELEPHONE CONVERSATION WITH THE
KMWA AIRPORT MANAGER...THE BASE OF THE SMOKE LAYER IS AROUND 5K FEET
AND A PILOT REPORTED A TOTAL OBSCURATION. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE A
BROKEN DECK AT 5K FEET. THIS WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE SMOKE AS WELL AS
CUMULUS CLOUDS...WHICH WILL BE BASED ABOUT THE SAME HEIGHT.

VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WABASH VALLEY AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL
INTRODUCE VCTS FOR THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BYPASS THOSE SITES TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER
MISSOURI TONIGHT...AND MAY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN IL TO THE
KEVV/KOWB AREAS WED MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WILL BRING A MID LEVEL CIG
IN VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF ON PRECIP MENTION.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CN
AVIATION.....MY



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