Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 121716

1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014

Issued at 1216 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

Aviation section updated.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 157 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

Short term forecast is still on track for Sunday night storm
system to move in. Will see pops shoot up to categorical/near
certainty after a warming/drying weekend.

Storms may contain heavy rainfall Sunday night. Forecast areal
average qpf for the event is 3/4" on average, with slightly higher
amounts south and slightly lower amounts north.

Pops linger thru Monday as the upper trof makes passage after the
surface system departs. Instability showers will remain the rule
as we transition thru the wetter environ to a cooler one as well.
70s and 50s will be supplanted by 50s and 30s, a notable drop
below climo.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

In the wake of the early week system, high pressure will build in by
Tuesday. This will result in a return to dry and unseasonably cool
weather during the mid week period. In fact, highs Tuesday are only
forecast in the lower to mid 50s. Frost will be possible Tuesday
night as clear skies and light winds allow temperatures to dip into
the lower and mid 30s by daybreak Wednesday.

The surface ridge will begin to shift east of the area on Wednesday.
Winds will back to the east and eventually southeast as a result.
This will yield a moderating trend as we head into late week. Highs
Wednesday will close in on the 60 degree mark, then surge well into
the 60s on Thursday.

The approach of upper level shortwave energy may result in our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday night and Friday,
however confidence is relatively low at this point. The latest GFS
and GEM are much more amplified with the upper level system, while
the ECMWF is faster and weaker. Prefer to maintain the going slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday for


Issued at 1216 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

CU field expanded rapidly across the area late this morning and
expect VFR sct CU deck to persist through the end of the day, with
gusty south winds continuing, gusts 25-30 kts expected.

CU diurnal in nature, so we expect some decrease tonight, with
higher clouds persisting. Wind gusts should taper down, but
sustained values still near or above 10 kts at times. SSW low
level jet forecast just off the deck, so introduced LLWS for the
nighttime hours.

Gusts should pick up rapidly Sunday morning, from the south, in
the 20-30kt range. Still higher clouds, and perhaps VFR few-sct
lower deck.



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