Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 181225
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
725 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Models show a weak upper level trof moving across the PAH forecast
area this afternoon. GFS keeps us dry, while ECMWF and HRRR generate
some light QPF mainly west of the Mississippi River this afternoon.
Included some slight chance pops for showers for a portion of our
southeast Missouri counties from 17z to 23z to account for it.
Despite northerly winds and some cloud cover, temperatures will be
a bit above seasonal normals today and tonight. Highs will be in
the lower to middle 80s with lows in the 60 to 65 degree range.

For tonight into Monday, surface high pressure will be sliding
east across our region. Winds will shift back to the south, and
temperatures will warm a few more degrees for Monday into Tuesday
night. Models show a weak cold front moving into the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio River valleys Tuesday and washing out
Tuesday night. Models keep us dry, and the only result will be
light winds shifting to the north Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Above average confidence through most of the period, then average
to below average at the very end due to slight model inconsistencies.

Still very little to discuss and very few changes synoptically
through most of the long term period. High pressure at the surface
and ridging aloft is forecast through most of the long term period
producing dry, warm, and humid conditions.

Friday night the GFS continues to weaken and suppress the upper
ridge slightly southward allowing a back door cold front to sag into
the far northern and northeastern sections of our CWA on Saturday.
In the process it also cranks out a few hundredths of QPF over the
same areas.

During the same time frame the ECMWF weakens the ridge but shows
deeper moisture and small precipitation chances over the southern
and western sections of our CWA on Saturday. The latest Superblend
model run appears to be picking up on that so will just go with
that which indicated slight chances area wide.

Temperatures will remain at or above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 725 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Any lingering LIFR cigs/vsbys will improve to VFR by 14z. VFR
conditions are then expected through 08z, then MVFR vsbys are
possible. Winds will be light and variable, becoming calm after
00z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RST



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