Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 252033
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
233 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

The primary forecast challenge in the near term is the Pre
Thanksiving Day system...and whether or not it will yield any
wintry pcpn (snow). Its timing is ideal for an all liquid event,
as is the maintenance of lower trop southerlies thru the duration
of the pcpn event. Both these scenarios would suggest an otherwise
melting of falling pcpn to liquid by the time it reaches the
ground largely in the 15z Wed thru 03Z Thu time frame.

In concert with this thinking, WWD graphic shows 1" approaching
but not intruding into our northwest CWA, and then, departing but
not expanding from our southeast CWA.

The key will be if there is any change to the current modeling in
timing of the system that keeps it all (or mostly all) liquid for
us. If this occurs, or the track goes a little further south, then
we would anticipate a light dusting possible, esp for northern,
and far eastern (northeastern) counties mainly Wed evening.
However again, the trending of the models suggests this scenario
playing out is trending the opposite direction (i.e. not playing
out).

As a result, we`ll keep a nearly all liquid event but be mindful
of the aforementioned and monitor its progress and subsequent
modeling. Before and after the event are apropos with little
change to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
long term, thus confidence is higher than average through Monday.

The period will start off cold Friday morning with northwest flow
between an upper level trough in the east and ridging out west.
However, a substantial modification in temperatures will transpire
Friday into the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and
low level winds shift to southerly. Unfortunately, the weekend looks
to be shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening
of the atmosphere below 800 mb. With the abundant low level moisture
and weak isentropic lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will
be possible Saturday night into Sunday. Highs will average in the
upper 50s to lower 60s both weekend days.

A somewhat better chance of rain enters the scene Sunday night and
Monday as a cold front makes passage. Even with the focus of the
front, rain totals should remain on the light side. Forecast models
agree that temperature profiles during this time will be too warm to
support anything other than liquid precipitation.

Some uncertainty creeps into the forecast by Monday night and
Tuesday. The ECMWF indicates a brief return to dry weather while the
GFS suggests light rain or drizzle will continue to be possible.
Collaborative consensus with neighboring offices was to keep the
initialized blend in tact--retaining a slight chance of light rain
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will rule, though cigs will develop and lower thru
the mid levels again late tonight-early tmrw as a system takes
shape and approaches from the north/west. After w-nwlys today,
diminishing overnight, slys will return tmrw morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







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