Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 241158
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
658 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TODAY. THE
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL PASS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...WITH QPF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING MUCH IF ANY ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN THAT REGION.

WOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION UNTIL CLOSER TO 03Z.
THE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PIVOT IN A NEGATIVE TILT FASHION
FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTHEAST TO THE LP OF MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
LOW.

FIGURE ON DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG I-64 LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY NOT BE ANYTHING TO FOCUS CONVECTION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. KEPT POPS AT LIKELY
LEVELS NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO WITH ONLY CHANCES OVER KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE...STILL FEEL THERE
IS SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF WIND
DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY WHERE LINE SEGMENTS DEVELOP. SPC`S MARGINAL
OUTLOOK AREA LOOKS GOOD.

THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS A
NEW WRINKLE IN THE 00Z MODELS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE.
THEY DEVELOP CONVECTION THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. IT APPEARS ALMOST AS WARM
FRONTAL ACTIVITY. SPREAD 30 PERCENT POPS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
FOR THAT ACTIVITY. WE MAY NOT BE AS DRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THOUGHT.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON WHERE THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SETS UP...WITH THE GFS AND NAM BEING THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST...AND
THE GEM AND ECMWF SUPPRESSING IT OVER WEST KENTUCKY. WILL SIDE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM FOR NOW. THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHEREVER IT
SETS UP...SHOULD FOCUS THE 1.3+" PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO QUITE A
BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE
ALONG THE TROUGH AND TRAVERSE MUCH OF OUR REGION BY 06Z THURSDAY.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL IN A BAND ALONG AND JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING. ONCE THE LOW PASSES...THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT. FOLLOWED THE HPC QPF THROUGH THE EVENT...WHICH
RESULTED IN A MAX OF NEARLY 2" OVER PERRY COUNTY ILLINOIS. OF COURSE
TODD COUNTY KENTUCKY WILL HAVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN...CLOSER
TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH.

THE NAM AND GFS GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FIGURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL
BE GREATEST...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

0-3KM SRH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WHERE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS DEVELOP...MOST LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EVENT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS...BUT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE LINEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THE 0-1KM
SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT AND COULD RESULT IN A FEW TORNADOES...REGARDLESS
OF THE CONVECTIVE MODE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WHEN THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION AND FINALLY DRY US OUT.

IT APPEARS THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED
PRETTY CLOSELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD ENDING
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

ECMWF MOVES ANY PRECIP EAST OF OUR REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY, WHILE THE
GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW A LAST BIT OF LIGHT PRECIP IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY. KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LIGHT RAIN IN A SMALL
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  MUCH COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THURSDAY
NIGHT, AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.
OUR COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.  LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES, WHICH WILL MAKE US 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  HIGHS SATURDAY WILL AGAIN ONLY
REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A LITTLE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH A WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY WHEN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN.  BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ECMWF AND GFS
DISAGREE IN TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.  FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THESE PRECIP CHANCES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
EXTENDED OR PUSHED OFF INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN NORTHWARD
INTO/THROUGH THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE
OVERALL TREND OF VEERING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IS STILL
VALID THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AT
KEVV AND KOWB FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT
MAINLY AROUND 06Z AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KEVV AND KOWB. FIGURE THE CONVECTION WILL STAY
NORTH OF KCGI AND KPAH. TRIED TO BE OPTIMISTIC ON CEILING
FORECAST. MVFR CEILINGS WERE LIMITED TO PERIODS OF FORECAST
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS


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