Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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079
FXUS63 KPAH 152340
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOIST SSW FLOW AND SUBTLE
SUPPORT ALOFT. THE RESULT SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA MOVING SW TO NE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUGGESTS ISOLATED GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND OVERALL CAPE SUGGEST A LITTLE HAIL POSSIBLE. OVERALL...ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE UNLIKELY. SHOULD BE A DOWN
TREND LATER THIS EVENING...THEN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
LATE TONIGHT PER THE NAM/GFS. NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER LULL SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREE
FOR SATURDAY GIVEN CLOUDS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL. SUNDAY SHOULD BE
VERY WARM...AND WITH THE FRONT OFF TO THE NW...SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY...WITH CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SETTLES SE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LESSENING LIFT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BY THE
EVENING. DECENT DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTION REGIME FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND RIDGING
ALOFT PUTS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA IN A DRY ZONE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY. THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA IS POISED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF FASTER ZONAL
FLOW...SUPPORTIVE OF A WEAK IMPLIED BAROCLINIC ZONE...ENOUGH FOR
WARM ADVECTION FLOW. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE FROM A SHARPENING FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORTS
A WEAK NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN AND SUPPRESSES MOIST FLOW FURTHER SOUTH.REDUCING
RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND WITH SOME EMPHASIS ON THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS...CANADIAN...NAM-WRF AND ECMWF FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM KPAH TO KOWB WILL DRIFT
EAST/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
KEVV/KOWB IN THESE STORMS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR
AT KCGI/KPAH. AFTER A SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION...ANOTHER
LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE KPAH/KCGI AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH KEVV/KOWB
AROUND 12Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL INDUCE IFR CIGS FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THE RAIN AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND MIDDAY AT KCGI/KPAH...AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND KEVV/KOWB. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR OR MVFR IN THE WAKE OF
THE RAIN.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...MY



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