Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 301653

1153 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

Issued at 1153 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

Updated the aviation section.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 110 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

The synoptic pattern during the short term looks like it remains
muddied thru the period as an upper level low develops over the Tn
valley with time. Clouds wrap extensively across the Ohio valley
at this it looks like more clouds than not (overall)
is the way to go. That said...we could see some sunshine bleed
thru temporarily on some post frontal dry/cold advection during
the next 24-36 hrs...then as the tropical moisture works into the
Southeast U.S. and its extremities push as far northward/westward
as our Commonwealth...we get more clouds pushing in by Friday.
This could even lead to isolated showers working into our eastern
counties...but we`ll see where collab efforts go on its insertion
this package.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

The med range models have come together a little better on the mid
level pattern over the CONUS in the extended period. Two prominent
closed lows, one in the west and one in the sern CONUS with possible
tropical enhancement, should be around in one form or another
through the period, with a ridge in between gradually building by
Day 7.

Early on, it appears that some light showers are possible Sat night
and Sun in the far ern section of the PAH forecast area. This will
be due to the proximity of the sern CONUS low. There will certainly
be an increase in cloudiness for the ern half of our region through
the weekend. The low chance pcpn forecast is still subject to
change, so stay tuned. By Mon, whereever the low is, it should begin
to move farther east as the pattern across the CONUS becomes more
progressive. The rest of the region will have dry weather. A very
cool nrly to nwrly breeze will prevail for nearly the entire
extended period, slackening by Day 7 (Tue) in advance of large scale
mid level height falls and lowering sfc pressures from the west.

The departure of the low should result in fewer clouds and a gentle
rebound of below average temps. This will be more noticeable in the
daytime, where highs will range from the 60s early to the 70s later.
Lows in the frigid 40s should prevail.


Issued at 1153 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

MVFR cigs continue generally south of a KMDH-KAJG line with breaks
continuing to push south across southern IL. Will depict a gradual
improvement through 00z as drier low level air continues to filter
south across the region, with north winds around 10 kts

Models depict mid clouds may persist tonight. NAM-RAP models
advect low-level moisture in from the NE Thursday morning. We
introduced a SCT deck just below 3k/ft in case this comes to
fruition. Later shifts can adjust. North winds generally around 5
kts tonight will become NNE and gusty Thursday morning. Some gusts
may climb just over 20 kts.



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