Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 251048
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
648 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

ALL REMAINS QUIET ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY SOME
LOW AND MID CLOUDS DRIFTING THRU AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 70 ATTM. JUST UPSTREAM...AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER...AS BOTH THE 850 MB
THETA E RIDGE AXIS AND AN INSTABILITY AXIS LEAN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN
AND NRN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MAIN QUESTION FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND TODAY IS IF THIS CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO
REACH OUR CWA AND PROVIDE US WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SWINGS THRU MICHIGAN TODAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
(850 MB THETA E AXIS) AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LEAN INTO OUR CWA
TOWARD DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM NW
TO SE THRU THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED (GENERALLY
AROUND 500 J/KG) WITH FROPA OCCURRING AT OUR DIURNAL INSTABILITY
MINIMUM. WIND FIELDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK STILL KEEPS MOST
OF OUR CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER THRU TODAY...WITH JUST A SMALL SLIVER
OF OUR WRN CWA IN MARGINAL. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

AS FAR AS POPS...STILL EXPECT OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE THRU
15Z FOR WRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA FROM ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU FAR NRN
AND NW LWR MICHIGAN WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. CONVECTION MAY EXPERIENCE SOME BOOST FROM INCREASING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TOWARD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FROPA OCCURS
FOR ERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO A DRIER AND GENERALLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESS. WILL LEAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS AREA THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE
CONVECTION EVOLVES ONCE SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP
RIGHT AS FROPA OCCURS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY
GIVEN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

(7/26)SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN MOVES TO S
LOWER BY 00Z, THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS TRIES
TO PRINT OUT SOME RAIN AROUND UPPER MICHIGAN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
REMAIN DRY, SO WILL ALSO GO DRY. THIS SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN DURING
THE NIGHT. AGAIN, THE GFS IS SHOWING MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT, AND THEN
EARLY ON MONDAY BEFORE ALL THE RAIN RETREATING WEST AGAIN INTO
WISCONSIN. SO THINK THAT THE GFS IS A LITTLE TOO WET, WITH THE ECMWF
IDEA OF DRY WEATHER GOOD. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY LOOK OKAY, BUT
A LITTLE WORRYING, AS THE ANALOGS ON THE CIPS PAGE, SHOW THAT THE
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 85F IS < 30% EVEN THOUGH THE MET/MAV
NUMBERS BRINGS MID 80S UP TO GLR.

(7/27)MONDAY...THE BETTER DAY FOR THE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE 85F,
IS MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST A BIT TO LAKE ERIE,
AND THE RETURN FLOW GETS GOING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE NEAR 90F FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRY, AT LEAST
EARLY, TO PRINT OUT SOME RAIN BEFORE FORCING THE RAIN TO THE WEST.
IT`S GOING TO DEPEND ON WHICH MODEL IS RIGHT WITH RESPECT TO HOW
AMPLIFIED THE 500 MB RIDGE IS. THE ECMWF AND THE NAM PREVENT ALL
RAIN FROM GETTING OVER THE RIDGE. WHILE THE GFS HAS A FLATTER
RIDGES, AT LEAST TO BEGIN WITH, AND CONTINUES THE RAIN BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z. THINK THAT THE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN WEST AS
THE ECMWF SHOWS SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THE GFS CONTINUES THE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THAT THEY DON`T COME IN UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT, WHICH IS THE GOING FORECAST. BOTH THE MODELS AGREE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS, THEN DRYING OUT
OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS, AND
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 10C BY 00Z. SO WE WILL SEE
THE TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 80. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING DOWN THE NW FLOW AT 500 MB ON FRIDAY WITH
THE WARM FRONT THAT PUSHES OUT OF THE PLAINS. SO WILL EXPECT THAT
THE ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU NRN LWR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THIS MORNING FOR NW
LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES (PLN/TVC/MBL). LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU MIDDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SUNDAY NIGHT
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU OUR NEARSHORE AREAS...BUT
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR


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