Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 260706
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
306 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLDER AND SOME MORE SNOW FOR SOME...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE PARTS OF
THE CONUS. THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT IS RIGHT OVERHEAD WITH
00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG INVERSION WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE. THIS
IS RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
SPIT OUT A FEW FLURRIES/DRIZZLE AT TIMES IN NRN LOWER. ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...THERE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
NOT REALLY INTO ANY COLDER AIR DUE TO A REALLY LOOSE THERMAL
GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...VERY LIGHT RAIN AND
FLURRIES WERE MORE FREQUENT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE REGION.

COLDER AIR WAS SEEN UPSTREAM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAL COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...THROUGH ND. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE HERE ARE PRODUCING A GREATER
AREA/NUMBER OF SHOWERS...IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH SEEN FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH CENTRAL
MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH...AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL
IN TURN...PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. ALSO...COLDER H8
TEMPS WILL SINK INTO THE AREA...REACHING THE NEGATIVE TEENS TONIGHT.
WHILE WE ARE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO PRODUCE SOME SYNOPTIC SNOWS.
THE GREATEST FORCING AND ROUGHLY 0.25" PWATS WILL SCRAPE THE NE
CWA...BRINGING ROUGHLY 1-2" OF SNOW. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS MAYBE
MORE LOCALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NE LOWER DUE
TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE PLUME AND MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AT THAT TIME. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THEY REACH SUFFICIENTLY LEVELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE
EXITED...AND ONLY INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION. A
NNE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO SNOW THERE. A
NORTH FLOW ACROSS NRN LOWER WILL BRING NO MORE THAN AN INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS
MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER. ALTHOUGH WITH NORTH FLOW...SKIES ARE
LIKELY TO CLEAR...AND SOME LOWER LYING AREAS WILL CREEP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

DIMINISHING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND LINGERING OVER WATER INSTABILITY...TO KEEP SOME MENTION
OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER PCPN WILL BE LIMITED AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING (850/500MB RH DROPPING TO
UNDER 30 PCT). ALSO...ANY LAKE ENHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ELIMINATED
BY 18Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LVL INVERSIONS CRASHING TO
UNDER 2K FT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LINGERING SNOW
CONFINED TO FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...DEEP 500MB TROUGH FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST WHILE 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -
17C...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -9C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS CLIPPER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. A
NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...THE DEEP 500MB TROUGH WHICH
DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BREAK DOWN
AND MOVE EAST...WITH A MORE ZONAL AND WARMER FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND -4C BEFORE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND +2C WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER. OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING LIKE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MICHGIAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
FORECAST TREND OF SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NRN MI SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DUE TO PASSING CLIPPERS. WILL MENTION MAINLY RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE AS 850MB WARM TO AROUND +2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CIGS WERE UNDERGOING A RAPID EROSION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WILL CLEAR OUT AT TVC/PLN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS (~08Z).
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYBREAK...BEFORE THE LATE MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND SOME BL MOISTURE OUGHT TO DEVELOP SOME BROKEN MVFR/VFR
CUMULUS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND
LOWER INTO SOLID MVFR...AS DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOWFALL AND
MAINLY FOR PLN AND ESPECIALLY APN INTO THIS EVENING. CAN FORESEE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW...MAYBE A SHADE HIGHER AT APN. SNOWFALL
RATES LOW.

THIS BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CROSS PLN AROUND 05Z...THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL TEMPS
WILL COOL TO SUFFICIENT LEVELS FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TVC/MBL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...NORTH FLOW WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS AT PLN.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BEFORE
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR
VEERING WINDS OUT OF THE WNW/NW TO GUST BACK INTO THE 20-25 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY GRADUAL.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD


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