Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 240713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
313 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

High impact weather potential: none.

Low-level cold advection is underway, between deep low pressure over
eastern Quebec, and high pressure building into the northern plains
and upper MS valley. Lake effect rain showers are seen downwind
of Lakes Superior and MI. This overall pattern will not
fundamentally change today or tonight. Precip trends are the main

Today/tonight...the high will advance eastward with time, pushing
into far western Ontario/WI/IN by Tue morning. A nw low-level flow
today will veer nnw tonight. The close approach of the high will
eventually relax 1000-850mb winds tonight, though we will still hang
onto cyclonically curved flow here, thanks to lake-induced troffing.
850mb temps will settle in at -3 to -5c by daybreak, stay there
today, then lower further to -4 to -7c tonight. However, MBL area
will be on the edge of the 850mb thermal trof, and thus be a little
warmer. A reasonably vigorous 500mb shortwave will dive across the
region this morning, mainly early (colder cloud tops over Superior
are a reflection of this). Otherwise, there are no forcing
mechanisms of note into tonight.

Models are rather unenthusiastic about precip in this forecast area.
That appears unrealistic, given delta Ts in the upper teens, and an
airmass that is not prohibitively dry. This is similar to the
scenario we saw 2-4 days ago, where lake effect had upticks and
downturns, but took forever to actually go away.

Will maintain sct pops in nw lower thru the period. The focus today
will be between TVC and GLR, migrating back toward TVC tonight as
winds veer a bit. Sct pops also in order in western Chip/Mack today,
diminishing tonight as the fetch becomes less favorable. Some very
small pops will also work for the Rogers City/APN area. With cooler
air moving in, might be an outside chance for a few snowflakes to
mix in over high terrain locales (like we saw early Sat morning).
Would feel better about that possibility if lake effect precip was
focused more on the GLR area tonight, deeper into the cool air. Down
by TVC, not so much. Might also warrant a snowflake mention tonight
in far western Chip/Mack, though pops will be quite small.

Outside of lake effect regimes, skies will generally be partly
cloudy. Max temps today mid 40s to around 50f. Min temps tonight in
the low/mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Tuesday through Wednesday night...

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis/Expected evolution: Fairly progressive pattern
continues across the CONUS for the foreseeable future with ridging
centered over the Intermountain West, leaving northern Michigan in a
transition zone as upper-level trough axis sits over the eastern
seaboard. The next feature of note is a a wave that exits the
Intermountain West by the middle of next week with cyclogenesis
ongoing, impacting portions of northern Michigan by Wednesday-

Tuesday - Tuesday night: Surface high pressure settles overhead, in
theory keeping northern Michigan precip-free despite lingering H8
air bottoming out around -4 C. Will continue the inherited dry
forecast as it`s hard go against with such paltry moisture fields.
Partly cloudy skies will be the rule, most prevalent near Lake
Michigan/Superior early in the day with more sun prevailing for the
afternoon. Temperature trends Tuesday night remain a bit of a
challenge with higher level clouds perhaps spreading in across
southwestern locations as an area of low pressure approaches, but
will continue to trend toward a cooler solution away from the big
lakes...thus have bumped min temps down a couple degrees below
guidance in those areas.

Wednesday - Wednesday night: Fairly decent guidance agreement that
by 12z Wed., low pressure is centered over central Iowa with
isentropically driven precip just off to the southwest of the CWA.
Northern edge of the precip shield is expected to ever so slowly
shift north and east throughout the remainder of the day as the
system`s center tracks toward Chicago Wed. afternoon and eventually
into southern MI by Thu. morning. Cool enough air through the column
certainly could support a mix of rain and snow, despite surface
temps just above freezing, in the 33-35 degrees across portions of
northern Lower into eastern Upper Wednesday night. For both
geographic locations, would expect any mixed precip to be limited to
inland locations, away from the big lakes prior to low-mid level
temperatures warming above 0 C by early Thursday morning as the sun
rises and the system continues to shift east.

Extended (Thursday through Sunday)...

Low pressure continues to shift off to the east throughout the day
Thursday with scattered rain showers lingering across a portion of
the area through the afternoon hours. Could continue to see a few
snowflakes mix in across eastern Upper early Thursday morning before
transitioning to all liquid as an October diurnal cycle would render.
Several additional precip chances continue through the remainder of
the period, both of the lake effect and synoptic system varieties.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1118 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Colder air continues to dive into the region via increasing
northerly winds behind a departing sfc low. Temperatures getting
cold enough for periodic scattered light lake effect rain showers
to roam the airports, mainly TVC, for most of the TAF period. No
vsby restrictions expected. CIGS will primarily be low end VFR
with only temporary, and probably infrequent MVFR within the

Gusts kicking in tonight across NW lower downwind of Lake Michigan,
and all airports Monday.


Issued at 314 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Gusty nw/nnw winds continue today, between low pressure in
eastern Canada and high pressure in the northern plains. Winds
relax tonight, as the high moves closer. Advisories already issued
for all waters into early evening. After a relatively quiet
Tue/Tue night, stronger east to se winds may develop on Wed.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.



LONG TERM...Gillen
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