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000
FXUS63 KAPX 110454
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1254 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES STARTING TOMORROW...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE MODERATING
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH
OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES IN NRN LOWER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (A FEW BREAKS THERE). NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1044 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING WELL IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS THICKEN.
DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...WEAK CAA OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

ONLY CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF REMAINS SOME SCT/BKN CIRRUS ACROSS
OUR CWA THIS EVENING WELL IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL REMAIN
THE CASE THRU THE NIGHT...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE SUN
SETS. DESPITE TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TODAY...
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30 AS
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR IS PULLED INTO NRN MICHIGAN IN RESPONSE TO
THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT AHEAD AND NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

...OUT-AND-BACK-IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT/ABOVE NORMAL LOWS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO...SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE NORTH CHANNEL/GEORGIAN
BAY.  FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN...DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS WELL WHILE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER/FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUN FILTERING THROUGH AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSHING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S WITH SOME 50+ DEGREE READINGS (INCLUDING
UP HERE ON THE HILL AT APX).

SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE 3-4MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS
OCCURRING.  PASSING SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE
WEST WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...SHOULD A CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT AS LAST OF THE MID
CLOUDS DEPART.  GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS SHOW THEIR TYPICAL WEAKNESS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SNOW COVER...WITH POOR MIXING IMPLYING A
GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON (GFS QPF PROGS TRYING TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON).
ANY CONCERN AREA FOR LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL BE
ALONG SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE U.P. WHERE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE
STILL RATHER SMALL (THERE WILL BE SOME WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
HELP OFFSET THIS).  OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE PLAINS DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...WILL START WITH UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WHICH
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

...QUICK HITTING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MID-WEEK...FOLLOWED BY MORE
FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

ROCK-STEADY LARGE SCALE PATTERN INDICES/SIMPLE MULTI-MONTH TRENDS
LENDS INCREASINGLY CONFIDENCE FOR A CONTINUATION OF A BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE THEME RIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BACKGROUND FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS...WITH PERSISTENT NOAM RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST
CONFIGURATION...ALLOWING AN AVENUE FOR COLD CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SLIGHT EAST ADJUSTMENT OF NOAM LONG WAVE
TROUGH SUGGESTS COLDEST ANOMALIES...AT LEAST INITIALLY...WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...AS HINTED AT VIA WPC LONG RANGE
DISCUSSION MENTIONING RECORD COLD NORTHEAST TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY. SLIGHT NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DOES
SUPPORT QUICK HITTING SHOTS OF MODIFICATION (LOOK NO FURTHER THAN
TODAY!)...BUT NO DOUBT NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE FORECASTABLE FUTURE. NOT
ALL IS DOOM AND GLOOM...WITH SAID SUBTLE REALIGNMENT ALSO FAVORING A
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO ACTIVE CLIPPER PATTERN...ALL THE WHILE
KEEPING ANY NORTH/SOUTH STREAM INTERACTION AND SIGNIFICANT STORM
DEVELOPMENT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS FAVORS A RELATIVELY
QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER...WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING
SNOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: FEW...AND WHAT THERE ARE CENTER ON
TEMPERATURE TRENDS (ESPECIALLY JUST HOW COLD TO GO WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT) AND PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

NOTHING TOO EXCITED TO START TUESDAY AS A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MAKES IT WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. POST-FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...AND SHOULD BE PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY INCREASINGLY ROBUST MARCH DIURNAL CYCLE. REALLY LIKE
INHERITED HIGHS REACHING NEAR/INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH IS A TOUCH WARMER THAN MOST
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING HEADING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NICE MID
LEVEL FGEN SIGNATURE NOW NOTED IN ALL PROGS EXPECTED TO SLICE RIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER PART OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTION BECOMES
JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS FEATURE MAKES IT...GIVEN EXPECTED DECENT
WARM SIDE LIFT/SHARP COOL SIDE SUBSIDENCE. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT
PRIMARY AXIS OF ATTENDANT LIGHT SNOW/MIXED PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. DO NOT WANT TO GET THIS SPECIFIC JUST YET...
MAINTAINING LOW POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF M-55 TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT. STILL EXPECTING RATHER IMPRESSIVE OHIO VALLEY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING OUT OF THE PLAINS. SOME NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ON MOST 12Z PROGS...BUT EVEN THE
FURTHER NORTH DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS KEEP NEARLY ALL THE ASSOCIATED
SNOWS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT GETTING CLIPPED BY SOME LIGHTER SNOWS DOWN NEAR
SAGINAW BAY WEDNESDAY IF FURTHER NORTH TREND CONTINUES...BUT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. AS MENTIONED PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BIGGER STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASINGLY STRONG CAA...WITH THERMAL PROGS
SUGGESTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES A GOOD 10 OR MORE DEGREES COLDER IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETS THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME OF THE
COLDER LOCALES ONCE AGAIN MAKING A RUN AT THE NEGATIVE TEENS. SLOW
MODERATION BEGINS THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST ON BACKSIDE OF
RETREATING HIGH...BUT READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

REST OF THE FORECAST (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY): MID RANGE
AGREEMENT IS EXCELLENT THAT NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY WILL SIMPLY
FOLLOW THE PATH OF ITS PREDECESSORS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO...ONCE AGAIN KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW OFF TO OUR NORTH. MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH
ARGUES FOR AT LEAST SOME LOW END LIGHT SNOW MENTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HARD TO FIND A COMPELLING ARGUMENT AGAINST SUCH. AREA
WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN GET BRIEFLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...BEFORE
POST-CLIPPER CAA AND PATTERN AMPLIFICATION BRINGS TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
SURE WISH I HAD BETTER NEWS FOR THE WINTER-WARY!

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON ACROSS ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME SCATTERED STRATO CU
TONIGHT...AS COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN OVER THE MOSTLY ICE-COVERED
LAKES. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL SHIFTING TO THE N/NW TUESDAY
AND REMAIN AOB 10KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
SYNOPSIS...NS
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD