


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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433 FXUS63 KAPX 260525 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 125 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain/storm chances return late tonight, lasting at times through Friday. A stronger storm or two is possible, especially south of M-72 Thursday/Thursday night. - Locally heavy rain possible at times tonight through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Southeast U.S. centered heat dome remains in place today with more high temperature records expected to be broken in parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Northern Michigan lies on the "cooler" northern periphery with low amplitude ridging overhead. Expansive 1024mb high pressure sits over Ontario aiding to bring dry northeast winds locally and keeping more active weather focused to our south near a stationary boundary situated downstate into the Ohio Valley. Changes are in the offing, however, as that boundary gradually climbs northward through the end of the week. Combined with increasing low-mid level moisture and occasional mid- upper waves ejecting lee of the Rockies will bring a return of more active weather later tonight, and at times, through Friday. Forecast Details: Low chances for a rogue shower this afternoon near the M-55 corridor, mainly from Manistee to Cadillac where deeper moisture initially pools and beginning stages of increased isentropic ascent arrives from the southwest. Meanwhile, more robust shower/storm development is expected upstream across the mid and upper MS Valley, which should gradually make northeastward progress toward and eventually into northern Michigan later tonight as the LLJ veers with time and better forcing arrives locally. Initial rain chances generally arrive between 00-06z across the eastern U.P. and far northwest lower before those chances expand eastward into northeast lower. Some elevated instability also expected to fold in late tonight, mainly across the southern half of the forecast area, leading to at least low chances for a few rumbles of thunder. Some showers and a rumble of thunder expected to linger across parts of the area Thursday morning -- mainly northeast lower and perhaps near the M-55 corridor closer to that northward advancing frontal boundary. While many areas see some dry time during the day Thursday, additional shower/storm chances are expected to return late Thursday afternoon and especially Thursday evening/night. The latter of these two time frames is one to watch for an isolated severe storm with gusty winds as the primary threat as deep layer shear increases to greater than 40 kts and instability builds across the southern third to half of the forecast area. Locally heavy rain likely in any thunderstorms, as well. Both of these threats highlighted by SPC/WPC in their respective Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook and Excessive Rain Outlook. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Pattern Forecast: Low pressure continues to trek across the region Friday morning before exiting stage right Friday afternoon. High pressure to follow, at least briefly, to start the weekend. However, additional chances for unsettled weather return as early Saturday night - Sunday morning (unlikely), but more so late in the weekend into the start of next week. Forecast Details: Some showers/storms may linger Friday with uncertainty on just how long these chances last. Current trends would suggest at least a low-end severe weather threat continues through midday Friday, primary across northeast lower where instability lingers in advance of the eastward tracking surface low. By late Friday afternoon/evening, dry conditions are expected area- wide as high pressure sags in from the north. Little change to this for Saturday with a banner summer day that`s expected to feature increasing sunshine with high temperatures ranging from the mid-70s to mid-80s area-wide. While chances for active weather are low Saturday night/Sunday morning, they`re not entirely zero, as potential exists for upstream MCS development. Suppose there`s a possibility that if this development occurs, a decaying convective complex could make a run toward northern MI. Increasing heat/humidity expected Sunday across the upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes to help support higher chances for more numerous showers/storms late Sunday into the start of next week as a deeper mid-level wave carves across southern Canada and the northern tier of the CONUS. Lots of details to sort out over the coming days with respect to timing/coverage of potential precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 125 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Area of -RA to perhaps RA crossing northern MI overnight. A few embedded TSRA back in WI may approach MBL at least early this morning. Conditions will still be mainly VFR for a while, but cigs eventually lower to MVFR after sunrise. APN has the best chance of seeing IFR conditions for part of Thursday, with lower cigs thanks to east winds off Lk Huron. East winds becoming increasingly breezy at most sites, with MBL instead becoming more variable. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...MSB/JZ