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000
FXUS63 KAPX 172012
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM NE WI THROUGH UPPER MI THIS
EVENING THEN INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF LOWER MI THIS EVENING. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM
IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME SUN AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. RAIN IS THEN LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

TONIGHT...MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC WEAKENING SFC LOW WILL LIFT NE
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND PCPN ASSOC WITH
SYSTEM SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ONE OTHER THING
TO WATCH TONIGHT WILL BE THE WHETHER A SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
SOME OF THE MODELS BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE THUMB REGION LATE
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...LEFT THESE COUNTIES DRY AS MODEL SNDGS SUGGEST
LOW-LVLS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM TONIGHT
SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S OVER ERN UPPER MI TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE THUMB REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY

500MB LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SWING INTO QUEBEC BY 6Z
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIP INTO MANITOBA...WITH THE
SUBSEQUENT OCCLUDED SFC LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...THE OCCLUSION EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO UPPER UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE WARM FRONT DRAPES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER
MI...WITH MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REACHING
INTO THE EASTERN U.P. THIS WILL SUPPORT ONGOING PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NIGHT IN THIS AREA. WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S...EXPECT PTYPE TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN UPPER MI
AND EASTERN NORTHERN LOWER MI MAY SEE SNOW MIX IN TOWARDS LATE
MORNING WITH SFC LOW TS DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI BY SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO...SHIFTING
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD WHERE IT ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT
THROUGH ROUGHLY 12Z MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A RAINY ONE...WITH SURFACE TEMPS LOOKING TO BE IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SNEAKS IN OVER UPPER MICHIGAN/LAKE SUPERIOR
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW ON MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
CROSSES ONTARIO/THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER
AS TO THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF BOTH THE RIDGE AND THE
DISTURBANCE...WHICH IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT FOR
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY EVENING FORECAST. THE GEM/GFS SHIFT THE FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA...AS THE RIDGE AND THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ARE MUCH STRONGER. THE ECMWF FAVORS A WEAKER RIDGE AND WEAKER
DISTURBANCE...WHICH HOLDS THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH
TUESDAY AM. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS
CURRENT SOLUTION...SO HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. ALSO
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
MONDAY...AS ROUGHLY 200-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS IMPACT TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH SHOWERS
GENERATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI BY THE GEM/GFS
DURING THE DAY. AGAIN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY LIKE THE ECMWF...WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE CWA.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVOURS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS AN
AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI AND FAR
NORTH-NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
AREA.


&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 153 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY...POSSIBLY TURNING MVFR TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE WI WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT.
PRECIP WITH THE LOW SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TAF SITES.

AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
COOLER AIR BLEEDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS
WILL LIKELY BE AT MBL AND TVC IN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE WNW FLOW.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...VOSS
SYNOPSIS...VOSS