Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 240005
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
705 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH COLD
READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXTENDED THRU 5 AM IN EASTERN UPPER. EARLIER
EXPECTATION WAS THAT INCOMING RAIN WOULD BREAK UP THE DENSE
FOG. BUT THAT NOT BEEN THE TREND IN EITHER MI OR WI...AND FOR NOW
KINROSS AND THE SAULT ARE BOTH AT 1/4SM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

OVERVIEW: AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING DUAL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ONE LOCATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND SECOND LOW
OVER OKLAHOMA. NRN MICHIGAN HAS REMAINED WITHIN A SOUPY AIRMASS AND
BROAD WEAK-ISH WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. BUT A BIGGER SURGE OF
WARM ADVECTION FORCING AND NARROW AXIS OF RAINFALL IS ABOUT
TO MARCH UP THROUGH THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ALOFT...STRONG PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE PROCESS OF PHASING WITH LARGER
SCALE TROUGHINESS DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS. AND AS EXPECTED...THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY CARVE OUT ANOTHER DEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BRING ANOTHER BIG COOL
DOWN ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE SNOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK.

TONIGHT...A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT
WAVE ENERGY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
PHASE WITH THE LARGER SCALE DEEPENING TROUGH...AND ROCKET UP THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND LIFT UP
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (MERGING WITH THE
NRN PLAINS LOW). FIRST NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SLIDES UP THROUGH
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT THEN...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
(NOW ROCKETING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY) UP THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT. FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL POPS (100 PERCENT) REMAIN ON TRACK.

HYDRO ISSUES: RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RUN LARGELY 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE. THIS WILL
OBVIOUSLY DO A NUMBER ON THE REMAINING SNOWPACK WITHIN THE SNOWBELTS
(ALREADY HAD BARE GROUND OVER THE E/S PART OF NRN LOWER).
RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH THE SNOW MELT MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN IS FORECAST
TO JUST REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY (USING 0.8 INCH QPF WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE). A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SLOPPY TRAVEL POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH A BURST OF SNOW AND SOME WIND...WITH GALES
EXPECTED ON MAINLY PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.
COULD ALSO SEE A SNEAKY PERIOD OF QUITE STRONG WINDS OVER LAND DOWN
TOWARD SAGINAW BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH WITH NO MAJOR SIGNALS
FOR ANY LARGE AMOUNTS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: BACK INTO THE HEART OF WINTER AS START
THE WORK WEEK AS REINFORCING PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS CARVE OUT
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THAT FEATURE MAY
SORT OF BOUNCE AROUND A BIT AS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL REINFORCING SHOTS
OF UPPER TROUGHING DROP INTO THE MEAN TROUGH...THOUGH THE OVERALL
TREND THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND IS FOR
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND PERIODIC SHOTS OF SNOWFALL -
ACTUALLY QUITE IN LINE WITH CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OF COURSE
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF VARIOUS
UPPER WAVES...WITH THE FIRST SUCH OCCURRENCE NOTED INTO MIDWEEK...AS
WELL AS JUST HOW COLD OUR AIRMASS MIGHT GET TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...
BUT THOSE SPECIFIC DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS.

LET`S LOOK AT SOME MORE "CONCRETE" DETAILS:

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: A PERIOD OF DRASTIC CHANGE (AKA - ENJOY THAT
WARMTH WHILE IT`S HERE!). INTENSE SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STRAITS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY
EVENING...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA INTO MIDDAY...WITH A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY ARRIVING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LATTER FEATURE
WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS H8 TEMPS
PLUNGE BACK TO THE -11C TO -14C RANGE. BEFORE THAT TIME...GIVEN
OCCLUDING NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE...EXPECT WARMTH WILL HANG
ON FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS...AS WILL PERIODS OF
RAIN BENEATH ELONGATING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/FGEN FORCING AND IN
BETWEEN A NICE AXIS OF COUPLED UPPER JET SUPPORT.

SECONDARY TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION LOOKS TO SUPPORT MORE
PERSISTENT DEFORMATION FORCING INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...JUST IN TIME FOR CRASHING THICKNESSES TO ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST AND LIKELY CHANGE RAIN OVER THE SNOW (FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST - DON`T SEE THAT TOO OFTEN)...WITH AN INCREASING LAKE
COMPONENT INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. SHARP CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW
ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR LOCAL "CHANNELS" OF EVEN FURTHER ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE...WITH THE MEAN WIND REGIME TARGETING THE TYPICAL
COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND MORE OF WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES FOR THE BEST ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE SNOW. THROW IN SOME GUSTY WINDS VIA A RATHER TIGHT
GRADIENT/EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MIXING AND CRASHING TEMPS BACK THROUGH
THE 20S...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR SOME MESSY TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
MANY AREAS DURING THE NIGHT.

AT THE MOMENT...STILL THINKING MANY SPOTS WILL PICK UP A GENERAL 4-
6"...PROBABLY HIGHEST NORTHWEST LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND NO DOUBT SOME SHORTER TERM HEADLINES
(ADVISORIES) WILL BE NEEDED. JUST A TOUCH TOO EARLY JUST YET TO
THROW THOSE OUT. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WILL REALLY NEED TO WATCH
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A CORE OF 50 KNOT WINDS IN THE
900-850MB LAYER BEING DRAGGED DOWN TO THE GROUND VIA STRONG POST-
FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE. SOME SIGNS OF RAPID TROP-FOLDING DURING THIS
PERIOD SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL IS INDEED THERE...THOUGH THERE ARE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ABOUT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE STRONG WIND
CHANNEL WILL RESIDE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TARGET FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALES WITH
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH THOSE
CONTINUING TO SPREAD A BIT MORE INLAND COURTESY OF STRONGER DEEP
LAYER FLOW. THOUGH THE THERMAL REGIME LOOKS TO IMPROVE A BIT
(BETTER OMEGA IN THE DGZ)...OVERALL CONVERGENCE DOES WANE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS DOES DEEPER MOISTURE. STILL...CAN ENVISION
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WANING QUICKLY INTO EARLY EVENING AS QUITE THE
SLUG OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE PICTURE AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. STILL...SHOULD SEE SOME
SOUTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT MAINLY
OF THE LIGHTER VARIETY GIVEN VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WARMING
THERMAL PROFILES.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: LOW CONFIDENCE INTO MIDWEEK WITH PLENTY OF
GUIDANCE STRUGGLES REGARDING A POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM TOWARD LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST GFS COMPLETELY WRAPS THIS
SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH...WHILE ECMWF/GGEM AND PARALLEL GFS (NEW
ONE TO BE IMPLEMENTED SOON) CONSISTENTLY CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH ON A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION. THIS NORTHERN SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE AS
THE PATTERN BRIEFLY RELAXES...SUGGESTING ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS WHERE
ENHANCEMENT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FEATURE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS
YET ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY CHILLY AIR DUMPS SOUTHWARD. COULD BE SOME
SLOPPY HOLIDAY TRAVEL IN SPOTS...BUT OF COURSE THAT IS PAR FOR THE
COURSE AROUND THESE PARTS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NEXT WEEKEND: CONFIDENCE VERY LOW WITH JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL
STICK AROUND...BUT GUT FEELING IS WE WILL MAINTAIN LAKE SNOW
CHANCES...WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...RECENT ECMWF RUNS
CONTINUE TO PEG SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR
ARRIVING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAINLY IFR TONIGHT AND MVFR MONDAY. LLWS EARLY TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE ACROSS MI LATE TONIGHT. WARM/MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN/FOG/STRATUS. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.
COOLER AIR STARTS TO ARRIVE MONDAY...CIGS WILL RISE AS THE LOW
DEPARTS BUT SHRA WILL ALSO OCCUR (MIXED WITH SHSN LATE IN THE
DAY).

SE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT...W TO NW MONDAY.
LLWS THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE DECK.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NEAR THE STRAITS OVERNIGHT...ENDING
UP IN WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY EVENING. A STRONGER PUSH OF SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A ROUND OF GALES TO
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA...WHILE WINDS MANY OTHER SPOTS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE IN THE WEAK GRADIENT ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE
GRADIENT ONCE THE LOW DEPARTS SHOULD DELIVER WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW END GALES POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.
HOWEVER...THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN LAKES THIS GO AROUND. A RETURN TO LIGHTER WINDS IS EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ008-015.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ345-347.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ348-349.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE


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