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000
FXUS63 KAPX 201717
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
117 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A FAIRLY HEALTHY CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER LINING UP NICELY WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT
OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER AND MAKE A FEW SMALL COSMETIC CHANGES
TO EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...BEAUTIFUL ONE MORE TIME...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NE THROUGH ONTARIO WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
WEAKENING....AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SET TO RISE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN.
ONLY OTHER SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY ACTIVITY SEEN...AND REMAINING NORTH
AND WEST OF US ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. A BAND OF MOISTURE/SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD WAS DECAYING WHILE SCRAPING WESTERN CHIP/MACK. OUTSIDE
OF SOME OTHER SPORADIC HIGH CLOUD...ALL IS QUIET AROUND THE NORTH
WOODS. THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...ACROSS MN/DAKOTAS...AS EXPECTED DID
NOT DRAW ANYWHERE NEAR OUR AREA. THUS...MAIN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E
REMAINS WELL WEST...WITH AXIS OF DRIEST LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E
DIRECTLY OVER NRN MICHIGAN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
DAYBREAK/MORNING...AS WE TRANSITION TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CUMULUS. MAYBE JUST A BIT MORE AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAN
YESTERDAY...AS THERE IS ONLY A SHADE MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE
LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK AGAIN...UNDER 10 KTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL BECOME MORE
CONFINED AND PROLONGED WITHIN THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WELL INTO
THE INTERIOR OF EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER. HIGH TEMPS OUGHT TO BE JUST
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
80S...AND A SMATTERING OF MIDDLE 80S. THE CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DECAY
WITH SUNDOWN AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. EARLY ON...LITTLE TO NO
ADDED THETA-E ADVECTION...SO SKIES TURNING PRETTY CLEAR. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED THETA-E OVERNIGHT AND SOME SCT-BKN MID
CLOUD...BUT A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT EXPECTED. LOWS AGAIN A TOUCH
WARMER...MAINLY THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S...BUT LOW LYING AREAS
ACROSS NE LOWER SEEING SOME LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...SOME HEAT AND HIGHER HUMIDITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT
APPROACHES NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
ANOTHER RAINFREE DAY. IN ADDITION...CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE (CREST AT
ABOUT 590 DM TUESDAY MORNING). A SHORT WAVE WILL THEN BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LIKELY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO END THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FOR NEXT WEEKEND LEADING TO
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THURSDAY THEN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MUGGY 60S
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...COOLING OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
50S FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
AROUND 60 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE
DOMINATED FLOW CLOSER TO THE COASTS. SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU
FIELDS. DIURNAL CU DISSIPATES THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF SCT-BKN
MID CLOUD EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AFTER 06Z OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN MARGINAL LLWS AT PLN /WHICH IS INCLUDED IN
THE TAF/. PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z- 13Z...ESPECIALLY
AT APN. STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 15-20KTS BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN WITH AREAS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NEARSHORES. THE FLOW WILL TREND MORE S/SW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND
REMAIN S/SE ACROSS LAKE HURON. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE TREND TO TURN MORE SW ACROSS ALL
AREAS AND INCREASE IN SPEED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH LOW
END...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY
LAKE MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...SMD