Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 220208

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1008 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Issued at 1005 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Sfc low pressure was lifting through Lake Superior this evening,
while also lifting a cold front through nrn lower Michigan. This
has scoured out the earlier low clouds and sporadic showers that
were across the region. This front is currently still trying to
push through eastern upper, where there was some lingering low
cloud and fog, but over the next couple/few hours, this should all
be eroded out. Skies will not be clear however, due to deeper low
level moisture trapped under an inversion, within the cold pool
behind the front, that will continue to advect into nrn Michigan
through the night. Thus, skies will be cloudy. The next shortwave
arrives late tonight into Monday with even deeper moisture for
some additional showers that will primarily impact the NW CWA.
Clouds across the entire region will keep overnight lows in a
rather small range focusing on the middle 40s.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure center has reached Western
Upper Michigan this afternoon... with the associated cold front now
extending from the low thru Lower Michigan. Most of the shower
activity along and ahead of this boundary has pushed north and east
of our CWA...leaving our area mainly dry but still mostly cloudy as
residual low clouds hang over the area despite the arrival of the
dry slot behind the cold front. A look at upstream IR satellite
shows a large area of wrap-around moisture/low clouds extending
behind the nearly vertically-stacked low...all the way into portions
of the Northern Plains.  Area of wrap-around showers continues to
develop over the Arrowhead of Minnesota within the heart of the wrap-
around moisture...deep cyclonic flow under the upper low center and
under the upper level cold pool.

A few showers will linger across NE sections of our CWA into early
evening...with a break in the action expected late this evening and
into the overnight hours for our entire CWA. Additional clouds and
showers will spread into the western two-thirds of our area late
tonight and Monday morning as the wrap-around moisture and some
semblance of the upper level cold pool arrive. CAA will lend to some
lake contribution as well under the direction of W/SW low level
flow. All feature driving shower production will begin to exit our
area by Monday afternoon...bringing a temporary close to precip
chances before another stronger wave lifts into the Western Great
Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday.

Under low clouds tonight...temps will only fall into the 40s despite
ongoing CAA. High temps on Monday will range from the lower 50s in
Eastern Upper Michigan to the lower 60s near Saginaw Bay.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

...Remaining mostly cloudy, cool and showery...

A cutoff upper level low pressure system parked over the region
will send pieces of energy across the forecast area through midweek.
This will lead to additional showers at times as well as more cool
temperatures. The timing of individual vorticity maximum will be a
bit tough to call but the overall dismal and dark pattern should
remain in place over the next few days. There is a slight
chance for thunder across the southern forecast area Tuesday
afternoon as models indicate that we get a little unstable
(few hundred j/kg of mixed layer cape). Highs Tuesday ranging
through the 60s north to south. Highs Wednesday ranging from
the upper 50s north to the lower and middle 60s south. Lows at night
mainly in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Still a good bit of uncertainty towards the end of the extended with
a lot of model divergence. Good agreement for a quiet first half of
the weekend, much less so as we get into Sunday/Monday. Seems to be
trending toward more widespread showers Sunday, but things have
tended to be forecast a bit too fast recently. Wouldn`t be surprised
to see this slow a bit in the coming days as well, shifting most of
the precip chances to Monday. Weekend temperatures will run a bit
above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 756 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Low pressure was over western Lake Superior early this evening,
which pushed a cold front through nrn Michigan over the last few
hours. Skies were able to clear out briefly in spots which
resulted in decent mixing into gusty SW winds aloft. The clearing
has not lasted long, as deeper low level moisture within the cold
air behind the front is beginning to sweep across nrn Michigan.
This process continues through the night with CIGS falling back
into MVFR and holding there through Monday morning. Moisture
deepens further into Monday ahead of the next upper level
disturbance/shortwave, which is expected to bring some possible
rain showers to NW lower Michigan. Skies will then gradually turn
VFR through Monday afternoon, with some partial clearing and more
gusty SW winds.


Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Winds and waves will remain at SCA criteria thru tonight as low
pressure tracks thru Northern Michigan and into Ontario. SCA
conditions may persist into Monday for some locations as well.
Scattered showers will redevelop across much of our nearshore area
late tonight into Monday as wrap-around moisture arrives under the
upper low center and the upper level cold pool.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-


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