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000
FXUS63 KMQT 150925
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

TAKING A LOOK AT THE WX MAP THIS MORNING...THE SFC HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS THE E HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. FROM THE WELL WRAPPED-UP LOW EXTENDS A TROUGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER
AN INCH AN HOUR/ HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER NORTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS UPPER MI REMAINS
IN AN SPC GENERAL RISK. WHILE THE RADAR HAS SHOWN ECHOES OVER THE
EAST HALF...THE PRECIP IS FALLING FROM HIGH CLOUDS...AND LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS NEAR 9.7KFT...WITH ML
CAPE VALUES RISING ABOVE 500J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE
CONTINUED S FLOW...AND INCREASED MOISTURE OVER WESTERN AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI...THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON /ACROSS WI/...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE 500MB RIDGE.

ALTHOUGH THE SFC LOW WILL ELONGATE AND WEAKEN AS IT STRETCHES ACROSS
S MANITOBA THROUGH S ONTARIO AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
REGION...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FAR E AROUND OR AFTER
06Z SUNDAY.

OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE QUICKER SHOWER AND TS ACTIVITY THAT
IS BEING POORLY PICKED UP BY THE MODELS...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED
THIS FCST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MOST OF THE LONG TERM AFTER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY NW
FLOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN A RIDGE DRIFTING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS AND A BROAD TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. COOLEST
WEATHER WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. THEN...DESPITE NW FLOW...TEMPS BEYOND
MON SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO NORMAL OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL SINCE COLDER TEMPS ASSOC WITH THE ERN TROF WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PCPN...NW FLOW WILL NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ON SUN...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER UPPER MI AHEAD OF SLOWLY
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE (REMNANT OF MID LEVEL LOW) FM NW MN SHOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WX OVER THE FCST AREA SUN. HOWEVER...NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500-700 J/KG TO PERHAPS
UPWARDS OF 1000J/KG IN THE AFTN. FOR THIS REASON...WILL MAINTAIN
SCHC POPS IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTN FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FM 30-40KT
...MIGHT EVEN SEE ISOLD SVR STORMS IF THE HIGHER SIDE OF INSTABILITY
RANGE MATERIALIZES. TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S/LWR 80S WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MANY
MODELS PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN NOW SHOW ONLY WEAK
FORCING ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS NOTED ON Q-VECT CONV FIELDS.
GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND TREND TOWARD WEAKER FORCING WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ONLY CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING SE OF UPPER MI MON...EXPECT
SHRA TO END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
FOLLOWING FROM THE W. IT WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...DUE TO BREEZY N WINDS AND CLOUDS DOMINATING FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY. COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MON NIGHT AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. WITH DRY AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE
WATER FALLING TO AROUND 40PCT OF NORMAL) AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO
LIGHT/CALM...CONTINUED TO FAVOR LOWER END OF MODELS GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE SFC HIGH PRES CENTER
WILL BE ARRIVING DURING THE NIGHT. WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...MAY SEE SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S.

UPPER MI WILL CONTINUE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. FOLLOWING NCEP FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN DECIDED TO
LEAN TOWARD DRIER FCST FOR TUE INTO WED TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH PRES
RDG HOLDS FIRM. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO FRI. SINCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
INCONSISTENCIES IN TIMING/STRENGTH AND TRACK OF WAVES...CONFIDENCE
WILL BE LIMITED ON PINNING DOWN ANY MINOR PCPN CHANCES. AS A RESULT
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA MENTIONED IN FCST FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS WORKING INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN /VCNTY OF
IWD/. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT AND WILL NOT PUT INTO TAFS FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SAT
MORNING INTO SAT AFTERNOON AT IWD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

OUTSIDE OF STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL KEEP A WEAKENING RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING. A LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL EXTEND A TROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH SHOULD EXIT
TOWARD SE CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A STRONGER HIGH SINKS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH...AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF