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000
FXUS63 KMQT 151137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
737 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE TROUGH IS CROSSING CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN. JUST A FINE LINE OF SHRA DEVELOPED AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER
EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...ALL IS QUIET AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR
HAS OVERWHELMED ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH. HARDLY ANY
CLOUDS ALONG THE TROUGH AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
REGION FOR TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...MAINLY WHAT TO DO WITH CURRENT FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...IS THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM. SUNNY SKIES RESULT IN
DEEP MIXING WITH BLYR BUILDING TO H8-H75 EARLY-MID AFTN. EXPECT UPR
30S TO LOWER 40S DWPNTS EARLY THIS MORNING TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPR
20S TO AROUND 30F. HIGHER DWPNTS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF NW FLOW COMING
OFF LK SUPERIOR. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RISE TO AT LEAST AROUND 70
DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA AWAY FROM LK SUPERIOR.
GIVEN DEGREE OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING...KEPT THEME OF PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S ALONG WI BORDER AND OVER
SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. IN WAKE OF TROUGH EXPECT STEADY PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE DAY. BUILDING BLYR AND
DEEPER MECHANICAL MIXING AND 950MB-850MB WINDS UP TO 35 KTS SHOULD
RESULT IN FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 20 KTS THIS AFTN FOR MOST CWA. ALREADY
COORDINATED WITH FIRE WEATHER USERS ON TUESDAY REGARDING THE CURRENT
STATUS OF FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER AND DECIDED ON A WATCH. SINCE ALL
THE CRITERIA /WIND/TEMPS/HUMIDITY/ SHOULD BE REACHED LATER TODAY
HAVE CONVERTED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING. WILL KEEP THE
WARNING GOING THROUGH 01Z WHEN LESSER MIXING LEADS TO LIGHTER
WINDS AND CLIMBING HUMIDITY VALUES. WARNING DOES NOT INCLUDE FAR
EASTERN CWA AS DWPNTS/HUMIDITY VALUES ARE HIGHER FOR THOSE AREAS.
SHOULD NOTE THAT EVEN IN THESE AREAS THAT IF ANY FIRES ARE ALREADY
ONGOING/SMOLDERING...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT
QUITE TO CRITERIA...STRONGER/GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL RESULT IN FIRE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

TO START THE LONG TERM...AT 12Z THU...SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NW...STICKING AROUND THROUGH FRI. THIS
WILL CREATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART THU THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THE WORK
WEEK.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN CONUS AND DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL DRAW A FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD
TO NEAR THE CWA FOR SAT AND SUN. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE CWA...BUT MOST MODELS SHOW PRECIP EITHER N OR S OF THE CWA OR A
COMBINATION THEREOF. DECREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS
HAVE POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE EVER VOLATILE
CONVECTION. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO THU AND FRI IN THE 60S AND
70S.

MON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM CLOSING
OFF OVER MN AND EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA...BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH GIVEN POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND POOR RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. CONVECTION IS
ESPECIALLY HARD TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME FRAME...FURTHER DECREASING
CONFIDENCE. TEMPS SHOULD COOL DOWN A BIT MOVING INTO MID WEEK IF THE
UPPER LOW DOES INDEED MOVE TOWARD OR OVER THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY AT SAW...BEFORE
DEEPER MIXING RESULTS IN STRONGER GUSTS MAKING IT TO SFC BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT WNW WINDS TO GUST OVER 20 KTS AT ALL THE SITES
TODAY...STRONGEST AT KCMX AND KSAW. AS INVERSION FORMS TONIGHT...
HAVE BROUGHT BACK MENTION OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KSAW. ONLY SKY
COVER WILL BE SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST. EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE DAY
IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS GREAT LAKES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT OR BLO 25 KTS. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY LATE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHING IN
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
     EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-004>006-009>014-084-
     085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA