Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 261944
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SHORT
TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW TEMPS
INTO THE LOW 20S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND W. ELSEWHERE...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30 AT THE
SHORE. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE COOLEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR (DUE TO LIGHT
NE WINDS) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. SHARP TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN POLAR
JET STREAM PERSISTS OVER EASTERN CANADA MOST OF THE WEEK. STRONG
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ATTM
SHEARS OUT WED INTO THU AS IT PUSHES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ON WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND AS THAT SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD GREAT LAKES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. APPEARS COOLER
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS UPPER LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST CPC FORECAST THEN SHOWS
GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIP SETS
UP FOR MAY 3RD THROUGH MAY 8TH.

AS IT HAS LOOKED LIKE FOR A WHILE...MAIN SFC FEATURE THIS WEEK WILL
BE HIGH PRESSURE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS TODAY LIFTS TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU...SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH HALF OF CWA. WEAKENING FORCING ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH BLO 700MB INDICATES MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ON THU. WEAKENING SYSTEM DEPARTS THU NIGHT THEN
COULD SEE INCREASING MID CLOUDS AGAIN FRI AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SHEARS
OUT WHILE MOVING FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE. GRADUALLY WARMING H85 TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS INLAND TO
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE 50S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 60S BY FRI OR SAT.
GRADIENT NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR SHORE
MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH THE HIGH AND DRY AIRMASS IN VCNTY CONTINUE
TO PREFER NIGHTTIME TEMPS AT OR BLO FREEZING INLAND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO LOW TD/RH IN THE AFTN. WINDS
FOR MOST PART LOOK LIGHT SO EVEN THOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE INCREASING...THEY SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK.

CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD GREAT LAKES. PREVIOUS ECMWF
WAS SHOWING SYSTEM BEGINNING TO AFFECT AREA AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT
BUT 00Z RUN DELAYS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM UNTIL LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT/MON. GFS AND GEM-NH ARE SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTH...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING. OVERALL
NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAYBE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

ENE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING...STRONGEST
OVER THE W...WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO UNDER 20 KTS AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS S THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. E TO NE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20-25KT WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH SAT TO THE S OF PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



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