Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 151942

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
342 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

After seeing 40-50mph wind gusts along the Lake Superior shore from
roughly Marquette to the east this morning and early afternoon,
along with waves up to 16 ft and coastal erosion and lakeshore
flooding, conditions are subsiding and will continue to do so this

A shortwave will move through tonight, which should only act to
enhance any lingering showers over NE Upper MI and perhaps lead to
some isolated to scattered showers over the Keweenaw.

Partly cloudy with highs in the mid 50s for Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

Overall, the weather through the extended looks quiet with a warm up
on the way through the middle/end of the week, with the next best
chance for rainfall chances returning later next weekend. Therefore,
the main forecast concern will the magnitude of this warming.

Monday, forecast soundings show just enough lingering cold air and
low-level moisture to foster the development of diurnally driven low
clouds. This cloud cover and lingering cool air aloft will promote
seasonable temperatures. Monday night into Tuesday, a weak shortwave
is progged to dig across the Upper Great Lakes, pushing a weak cold
front across the region. Not expecting any precipitation to develop
along this frontal boundary, but the surface pressure gradient will
become enhanced allowing for breezy winds. These breezy winds should
lessen the impacts of radiational cooling a bit, and allow
temperatures to only drop down into the upper 30s and 40s.

Tuesday through Friday, the weather is expected to remain dry and
with above normal temperatures as warm air advection increase across
the region. Right now it looks like temperatures will climb into the
60s each day, with a few pockets of lower 70s in locations that see
downsloping winds. Overnight low temperatures will remain fairly
mild, generally drop into the 40s and 50s.

The next best chance for precipitation will arrive next weekend as
de-amplifying longwave troughing tracks across the region. There is
some disagreement among the medium range models, with the ECMWF and
GFS bringing the next system across the region Saturday night
through Sunday; whereas, the Canadian is much faster with this
system as it tracks east across Upper Michigan on Saturday.
Depending on the arrival of this system, it will not only impact
precipitation chances, but also how warm temperatures will get.
Ahead of the cold front, if the GFS and ECMWF solutions come to
fruition, temperatures in the current forecast package would need to
be adjusted upwards. Even though mixing to around 850mb may be
challenging this time of year, the potential will still be there for
temperatures to climb nearly 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this
time of year.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 154 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

Rapid improvement at all sites will occur as the low pressure system
moves away from the area. All 3 terminals will be VFR by evening, if
not sooner.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 339 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

As the system exits the region, winds will continue to diminish to
around 15 knots tonight; however, expect the winds to ramp back up
to 20 to 30 knots Monday into Tuesday morning. No gales seen after
that as winds look to remain in the 15 to 25 knot range mostly.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ221-248-250.



LONG TERM...Ritzman
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