Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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518
FXUS63 KMQT 072044
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MOST OF THE SITES /AND ESPECIALLY IWD AT MVFR CONDITIONS/ ARE IN THE
BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW AND THE MORE STEADY SNOW
NEARING FROM NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL BE SLIDING IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS W-E AT ALL
SITES...DOWN TO TO IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS...WITH VIS FALLING TO LIFR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTS OVER SAW BY
06Z...AND THE PREDOMINATELY S WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NNW TONIGHT AT
CMX AND IWD. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO FAR E UPPER MI BY
18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NNW AT SAW IN THE
MORNING...BRINGING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF



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