Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 240851

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
451 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

Despite main sfc low being over IN this morning, upper trough close
enough by along with sufficient mid-level moisture is leading to
showers lifting across central and eastern forecast area early this
morning. In general where rain is occurring it is light with only a
few hundredths but have seen around 0.20 inch at MNM and 0.10 inch
at ESC. Skies have remained cloudy and that has kept temps uniform
in the 40s. H7-h5 upper trough over eastern IA per RAP settles
southward to MO-southern IN through midday. Swath of mid-level
moisture h7-h5 over roughly east half of forecast area along with
weak lift in that layer should continue to support some showers from
MQT to IMT to the east this morning. As the upper support drifts
farther away from the area this aftn expect most of the showers to
taper off. Some hint that stratocu/cu left over may try to yield a
few showers this aftn over same areas and perhaps over far inland
areas of western forecast area, but pretty low chance in terms of
both probability and coverage.

Northeast winds btwn the low over the Ohio Valley and high pressure
nosing in from Hudson Bay and northern Ontario will keep temps well
below normal today. Temps will especially be cool near Lk Superior
where temps may have hard time reaching low 50s in some spots. Even
inland locations away fm Lk Superior modification will struggle to
reach much past 60 degrees. Normal highs for late May are in the low
60s near Lk Superior and near 70 along the WI border.

For tonight, upper and sfc lows over Ohio Valley may come far enough
north to bring chance of showers back over at least eastern forecast
area and possibly as far west as Munising to KI Sawyer and Escanaba.
High pressure over the western area could lead to skies partially
clearing. However, since Td through today are only forecast to drop
to around 40, seems risk of frost would be lower but there could be
some fog instead. Kept mins in the 37-39 range at the lowest and put
fog in forecast. Clouds and any rain will hold up temps in the 40s

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

Fairly active but low impact weather is expected through the long
term. Beginning Thu, a lingering trough, cyclonic flow and weak low-
level instability should lead to isolated to scattered showers
diurnal showers over mainly the east half of Upper Mi. A mid-level
ridge finally builds in from the west and pushes the broad trough
and closed low east of the Great Lakes setting Upper Mi up for brief
period of drier weather Thu night into Fri morning. As the ridge
axis shifts e later on Fri some isold showers could return at least
to portions of the western cwa Fri afternoon into Fri night.
Expect shower chances to increase into the weekend as another
broad mid-level trough approaches from the west. This trough will
linger over the Upper Great Lakes for at least the early part of
next week leading to another period of below normal temps along
with continued periods of showers as a series of shortwaves pass
through the region. &&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 139 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

MVFR cigs will continue at IWD and CMX overnight with LIFR cigs at
SAW due to upslope. With the arrival of drier air on Wed and daytime
heating/mixing, cigs wl rebound into the VFR range with the last
place to see them at SAW by Wed evening.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 343 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

Expect winds under 20 kts into this coming weekend as a relatively
flat pres gradient dominates the Upper Lakes.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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