Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 051801
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
201 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.

WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.

COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.

NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S
POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX BY LATE MON MORNING IN SHRA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON


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