Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 010740
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF INTO
THE GRT LKS BTWN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND RDG OVER THE
ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROF IS OVER ERN LK SUP
AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE E. ACCOMPANYING AREA OF DEEPER MSTR AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING IS CAUSING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN
CWA. ALTHOUGH DNVA/SUBSIDENCE HAS ENDED THE LARGER SCALE PCPN OVER
THE W AND CENTRAL CWA...LINGERING NEAR SFC MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
INFLUX OF LLVL COOL AIR/INVRN SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND UPSLOPE
N FLOW OFF LK SUP TO THE S OF SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO HAS
MAINTAINED QUITE A BIT OF LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. BUT THE AIR
JUST TO THE NW OF LK SUP IS QUITE A BIT DRIER WITH SFC T/TD
DEPRESSIONS AT LEAST CLOSE TO 20F FM THUNDER BAY ONTARIO INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE ADVECTION OF THIS DRIER AIR IS TENDING TO BREAK UP
THE LO CLDS OVER THAT PART OF LK SUP. CLOSER TO THE SFC HI PRES...
THE 12Z PWAT WAS AS LO AS 0.35 INCH AT YPL OR ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LO CLD TRENDS INTO TNGT AND
TEMPS.

LATE TODAY/TNGT...AS SHRTWV OVER ERN LK SUP EDGES OFF TO THE E LATE
THIS AFTN AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING OVERSRPEADS
THE ERN CWA...EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE E TO END BY 00Z.
LINGERING DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY THE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP SHOULD
ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN WITH SOME LLVL DRY ADVECTION/IMPACT
OF DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WL ALSO TEND TO BREAK UP THE LO CLDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE LLVL FLOW WL TEND TO BECOME MORE
ACYC CLOSER TO CORE OF INCOMING DRIER AIR. AS THE SFC HI BUILDS OVER
THE W HALF OVERNGT...SKIES WL TURN MOCLR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF
INTO THE 40S. A MORE PERSISTENT CYC N FLOW OVER THE E SHOULD CAUSE
CLDS TO LINGER LONGER THERE AND LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL.

WED...AS THE SFC HI PRES EXPANDS SLOWLY OVER THE UPR LKS AND THE
LLVL FLOW TURNS MORE ACYC...EXPECT LINGERING LO CLDS OVER THE E TO
MIX OUT IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES OVER
THE W/SCENTRAL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LO 70S WITH H85 TEMPS
FCST NEAR 10C. PERSISTENT LLVL NW FLOW OFF THE CHILLY LK SUP WATERS
AND SOME LINGERING MRNG CLDS WL KEEP THE NEARSHORE AREAS OVER THE E
MUCH COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME SHORTWAVES IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU AND 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI WHICH REMAINS
OVER THE AREA INTO FRI NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO PUT IN
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR FRI AFTERNOON AS A FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES COULD COME INTO PLAY AND KICK OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DURING THE STRONG HEATING OF THE DAY. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
HAVING A MENTION OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THEN AND THEN
CARRY THIS OVER TO FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN FOR WHEN FRONT COMES THROUGH
FRI NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION 12Z SAT WITH A STRONG AND BROAD TROUGH OVER SW CANADA
THAT IS TOPPING A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS
ALSO A DIEING SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE U.P. ON SATURDAY AS DEPICTED
BY THE MANUAL PROGS AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THIS FOR
LAKE BREEZE PRONE AREAS. THE TROUGH IN SW CANADA MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z SUN AND THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND MOVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO TUE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND THEN WITH TROUGHING STILL OVER THE AREA
FOR TUE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN LAKE BREEZE ZONES STILL LOOKS LIKE A
POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK IS VERY
CLOSE TO KSAW...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FCST TO VEER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY HALT THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING...RESULTING
IN LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS LINGERING THRU THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AT KSAW SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. IF CLOUDS DO
LINGER LONGER...THEY WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS BACK.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LINGERING PATCHY FOG OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE ON WED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI
PRES BUILDING OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



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