Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 230626
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
226 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OVER THE EAST MOVES AWAY
AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WEST OF RAPID CITY SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. WITH LIGHT WIND
AGAIN TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE CWA AND LEFT
THAT IN THE FORECAST. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. PERSISTENCE IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THIS
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WHICH IS AROUND 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THE SFC...THE HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE NE
THIRD OF THE NATION WILL KEEP A RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER A
500MB RIDGE...WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT THE 500MB
LOW TO OPEN UP BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW...AND SETS UP A TROUGH ACROSS
MN ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE RESULT ACROSS UPPER MI WILL BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY FROM W AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE W HALF. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVERHEAD
ON FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR BASICALLY ALL BUT THE PACIFIC NW AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES.

WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND FEW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT...WENT TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF FCST GUIDANCE FOR MORNING LOWS. AND WITH
PREDOMINANT S WINDS EACH DAY...THE DOWNSLOPE WAS PLAYED UP A BIT
MORE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL SITES BEING
INCREASED 1-4F.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BECOME A BIT MORE TRICKY WX/WIND
WISE...WITH A SFC TROUGH SINKING IN FROM THE N. LIMITED MOISTURE
AGAIN MAY BE LIMITED. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS COMING BACK INTO THE FCST FOR MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THE WEEK AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HIGH STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS NO
HIGHER THAN 20 KTS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07






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