Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 041918
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE IS STRETCHING FROM A HIGH OVER TX TO WRN UPPER
MI...WRAPPING INTO WRN QUEBEC AROUND A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
LOWER MI. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...WHILE SERN SECTIONS HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER. SOME CU IS BREAKING
OUT OVER ERN AND SCENTRAL UPPER MI...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IS
AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD MEANDERING DISTURBANCE. UP TO 500J/KG
OF CAPE IS BEING ANALYZED BY THE RAP OVER ERN UPPER MI...WHERE MANY
HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BREAKING OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIE OFF TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OVER THAT DIRECTION AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER. SHOULD
SEE FOG TONIGHT OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI AS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SE.

SAT LOOKS WARMER AS SW FLOW INCREASES AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM
AROUND 15C TODAY TO 18-21C BY 00Z SUN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE...AND EVEN 90 IN BARAGA. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING W OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN UPPER
MI. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES W OF THE AREA SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WRN UPPER MI. THE HIGH-RES WRF ARW AND NMM ALONG WITH THE GFS HAVE
THE MOST PRECIP...BUT THE GFS IS VERY MUCH AN OUTLIER AND THE WRFS
ARE MORE REALISTIC. OTHER MODELS ARE DRY FOR THE MOST PART. AS
ALWAYS IN THESE SITUATIONS...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP IS
MORE LIKELY. IF AFTERNOON CONVECTION DOES FORM...SOME OF THE STORMS
OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS MUCAPES
WILL BE 1000-2000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS. THINK
SEVERE CHANCES ARE LOW...BUT IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ON SATURDAY...DEEP TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS YEILDS BUILDING RIDGE
FM SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS REST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. SFC
FRONT WILL BE ON FRONT EDGE OF TROUGH...RUNNING FM GREAT BASIN INTO
SCNTRL CANADA. SW FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY ALLOW SHORTWAVE WITH SHRA/TSRA TO GRAZE
WESTERN CWA SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
CLOSER TO EDGE OF 1000+ J/KG MUCAPE AND WITH WSW STEERING FLOW H85-
H3. DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALSO LEAD TO BUILDUP OF MLCAPES...THOUGH
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARGINAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA FM DAYTIME
HEATING ALONE. SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE WEST WORK ATTM. MAX TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF PLAINS TROUGH AND H85
TEMPS 18-20C. SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY ON LOW SIDE AS EFFECTIVE
SHEAR STAYS MAINLY BLO 30 KTS...THOUGH IT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER
LK SUPERIOR.

SHORTWAVE WITH SOURCE TO THE NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN NEAR BAHA
PENINSULA FORECAST TO TRACK TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CONUS. QUITE THE JOURNEY AND PROBABLY WILL BE SOME AFFECTS
FM THE SHORTWAVE AND SMALLER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVES OVER
THE PLAINS AS MAIN SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH 0-3KM MUCAPES 1000-
2000J/KG. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...STEERING WINDS
COULD ADVECT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF UPPER LAKES OVER
AT LEAST PORTIONS OF CWA. HESITANT TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FINER
DETAILS...BUT APPEARS STRONGEST LIFT TRACKS MORE NORTH OF UPR
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY PER H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ALSO STAYS
MAINLY SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN OVER CNTRL PLAINS CLOSER TO H85 LOW-
LEVEL JET AND THETA-E RIDGE. MLCAPES BUILD UP TO OVER 1000J/KG BUT
HIGHER VALUES ARE MAINLY MN-WI...AND FAR WEST CWA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST CWA STAYING BLO 25 KTS THROUGH SUN AFTN. A
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED AS H85 TEMPS SURGE TO 20C BY 18Z-
24Z. UNLESS CLOUDS ARE MORE OF AN ISSUE...INCREASING S-SW WINDS SFC-
H85 AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES
MUCH OF THE CWA. COOLER UPR 70S NEAR LK MICHIGAN. GIVEN H85 DWPNTS
13-18C...EXPECT DWPNTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND PROBABLY LOW 70S OVER
AT LEAST WESTERN CWA. THANKFULLY THIS EXTENSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL
DECREASE INTO MONDAY.

DEEP TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING
OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND ANOTHER SFC LOW LIFTING OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO. THE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF
CWA AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THAT
IDEA. KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. PWATS UP TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR
RECORD VALUES PER SOUNDING PWAT CLIMO FM SPC. STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN VCNTY OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHRA AND TSRA. IN A
GENERAL SENSE...SEVERE CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG WITH
ELEVATED CAPES LESS THAN 1000J/KG AHEAD OF FRONT AND 30+ KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LAGGING WELL BEHIND SFC-H85 WIND SHIFT. GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND FREEZING LEVELS UP TO 14KFT AND CORFIDI
VECTORS UNDER 10 KTS AND SUGGESTING BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL...THINK
HEAVY RAIN IS GOING TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THE SHRA/TSRA THAT
OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SEVERE POTENTIAL COMPLETELY THOUGH AS 0-1KM SHEAR IS OVER 20 KTS AND
INCREASINGLY PERPENDICULAR TO FRONT MOVING THROUGH. STRONG H85 JET
NOSING IN AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE FLUX AND CONVERGENCE. OVERALL THOUGH THINK
THE SEVERE IS A LOWER CHANCE THAN HEAVY RAIN.

FRONT CLEARS KISQ AND KERY BY EARLY MONDAY AFTN. DRY AIR TAKES OVER
FOR THE WEST HALF AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. H85 TEMPS DROP OFF
SOME...BUT SOME AREAS OF CNTRL MAY STILL SNEAK UP TO AROUND 80. 70S
ELSEWHERE WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY WEST.

MINOR CHANCE OF RAIN LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT NOW
APPEARS BETTER CHANCES STAY SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN ALONG THE FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. MAIN STORY IN THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. LOW TO MID 70S FOR
HIGHS ON TUESDAY. DEEP TROUGHING ALOFT AND CORE OF COOLEST AIR MOVES
ACROSS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ALL AREAS. LOW 60S NEAR
LK SUPERIOR WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. STAYING COOL ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE 60S EXPECTED. QUITE THE DIFFERENCE FM THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EXPECT LOWERING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
IN...WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT KSAW WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING AS FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 20KT COMES ON MONDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE PATCHY ACROSS THE LAKE UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS


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