Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 030821
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
421 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A SHORTWAVE ENTERING WRN ONTARIO HAS AIDED IN FIRING CONVECTION OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD AND LOCATIONS W OF LAKE NIPIGON IN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONALLY...A STOUT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER
MI IN THE LAST HOUR AND A HALF. LATEST HRRR RUN NOW SHOWS SOME QPF
OVER FAR WRN AND FAR ERN UPPER MI...AND CAN NOT RULE THAT OUT GIVEN
HOW FAST AND THOROUGHLY THE CU OVER THE CWA AND CONVECTION UPSTREAM
DEVELOPED AND THE FACT THAT LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING
INLAND. ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE
SPOTS. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CONVECTION IN CANADA MOVING OVER
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE WEAKENING...BUT THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION (FORMING A LITTLE CLUSTER OF STORM
JUST E OF THE XDR RADAR IN ONTARIO) AND SHOWS CONVECTION SURGING TO
THE KEWEENAW BY AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS IT
RUNS OUT OF THE AREA OF INSTABILITY.

AFTER THE EVENING PRECIP MOSTLY DIMINISHES...ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO
THROUGH FRI. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT N TO S
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DEPICT PRECIP BEING FORCED BY THE FRONT AND
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEAKENING AS THE IT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM MORE FAVORABLE FORCING AND WILL BE REACHING NRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKEST.
MODELS THEN SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING/RE-DEVELOPING AS HEATING
ENSUES OVER UPPER MI AND LAKE BREEZES FORM...ALL WHILE THE FRONT
MOVES INTO UPPER MI BY FRI EVENING. THE SETUP DOES LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION AS MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE 1000-1300J/KG WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KTS AND 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 10KTS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE NW. THIS CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE
DUE TO MODELS OVERESTIMATING CAPE...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND 40MPH WIND GUSTS AS
THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDER AT KCMX LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS...BUT TS
CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. SCT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED OVER OR NEAR KIWD AND KSAW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND
LACK OF ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
LAKE. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED STABILITY WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS NEAR
OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT FORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS



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