Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 240102
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
802 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA
THIS MORNING. THE NAM TAKES THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW NORTHEAST TODAY
AND ACROSS THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON. A 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WED. NAM SHOWS A NEW 500 MB CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THIS
TROUGH OVER SW MISSOURI 12Z WED THAT HEADS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z THU.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS TRY TO
SHOW SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE RETURNING TO THE EASTERN CWA BY 00Z
THU. GFS IS THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM WITH THE
NAM...ECMWF AND CANADIAN FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE GFS HAVING THE LOW OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH
THE HEAVIEST PCPN AND DID NOT USE. 12Z ECMWF CAME UP FURTHER EAST
WITH NEXT STORM...SO AFTER THE SNOW WINDS DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW...DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES. HEAVIEST SNOW HAS MOVED OUT AND CUT BACK POPS THIS
AFTERNOON. DID KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BELTS WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE HELPING TO AID IN THE
SNOW AND KEPT HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF QPF IN. MIXED PCPN OF RAIN AND SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AND ALSO
FOR WED. OVERALL...ONLY MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO SPEED UP DIMINISHING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND DID NOT CHANGE PCPN TYPES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

OUR BUSY PERIOD OF WX CONTINUES FOR THE HOLIDAYS.

SOMEWHERE OVER E UPPER MI AND N LOWER MI WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY WET
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TRICKY
PART OF THE WHOLE THING IS THAT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF EACH MODEL
HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD. EVER SINCE THE 18Z GFS CAME IN YESTERDAY WITH
A MORE W PUSH OF THE PRECIP BACK INTO THE E HALF OF UPPER MI
/QUICKER AND MORE W SOLUTION/. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUT OFF BETWEEN LIGHTER LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP AND A STEAD BAND
OF AROUND 0.5IN OF LIQUID AND NEARLY NOTHING. CONTINUE TO HEDGE THE
FCST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...00Z THURSDAY. BY
THIS TIME THE 23/12Z RUN OF THE GFS ALREADY HAS THE LOW OVER THE
HURON NATIONAL FOREST /NE LOWER MI/. THE OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE MORE
CLUSTERED AROUND THE 23/00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF HAVING IT AROUND
FLINT. WPC IS ALSO GOING WITH A NON-GFS SOLUTION. WILL HAVE ABOUT
1IN OVER LUCE COUNTY...WITH CLOSER TO 4IN FARTHER E DEPENDING ON
PRECIP TYPE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS.

EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP
LOCAL ROAD CREWS KEEP TABS ON THE AREA ROADWAYS...WITH MAINLY WET
CONDITIONS OUT OF ANY QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW /PARTICULARLY ON PRIMARY
ROADWAYS/. STILL KEEPING THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH
THE SFC TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT ON. THE SFC LOW
ITSELF WILL SWING ACROSS CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI AROUND 00Z SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY AS A LARGE
RIDGE OVER W CANADA BEGINS TO FILL IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. 850MB
TEMPS OVER THE NW WILL BE -15 TO -20C BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND MAY GET
DOWN TO -20 TO 025C AT 850MB BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT A
COOL END TO THE WEEKEND...AND START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TOPPING TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F ON
SUNDAY WILL BE 5-10F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL
BE QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE REST OF THE MONTH SO FAR. IN FACT...THE
LAST TIME NWS MQT RECORDED DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES WAS THE
BEGINNING OF DECEMBER /HIGH OF 8F ON DECEMBER 1ST/. THE LAST TIME WE
WERE IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHS WAS DECEMBER 3RD. MAY HAVE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NW WIND LES LATER INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE START OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS THE 500MB TROUGH SWINGS SEVERAL SMALLER
DISTURBANCES OUR WAY IN COLD MAINLY NW FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

WITH THE SNOW DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT IFR CIGS TO LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD AT ALL TAF SITES UNDER A CONTINUED MOIST AND
WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LVL NORTHERLY FLOW. THERE MAY BE EVEN A PERIOD OF
LIFR TO VLIFR AT KSAW AND KIWD TONIGHT WHERE UPSLOPE NNE FLOW MAY
FAVOR SOME LOWER STRATUS/FOG FORMATION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY SET UP ACROSS WI AND THE E HALF OF UPPER MI/E
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MI/E LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS ACROSS E LOWER MI AND LAKE
HURON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND CENTRAL QUEBEC BY MID
DAY THURSDAY. N-NNE WINDS OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD
GUST TO AROUND 30KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
TO 35KTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A CENTRAL PLAINS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL EJECT NE ACROSS N
LAKE MI/E UPPER MI/FAR E FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING INTO S QUEBEC
SATURDAY. THIS COULD BRING BACK ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 30KTS OUT
OF THE NW-WNW SATURDAY OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SW CANADA WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF





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