Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 301922
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
322 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE DEPARTING RAIN SHOWERS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS OF 4AM...RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO MUNISING. TO THE WEST...HAVE SEEN AN
OCCASIONAL REPORT OF DRIZZLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 8-10MI AT KIWD...LEADING TO
THE EXPECTATION OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FOG. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z KINL ARE
STARTING TO NEAR THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WITH CEILINGS RISING TO
VFR VALUES AT KCMX THIS PAST EVENING AND IN NW WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE THE OVERALL PUSH IS TO
THE SOUTHEAST (AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN). THUS...WILL SHOW CONTINUED DECREASING POPS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE SHOWERS
OUT OF THE U.P. BY MID MORNING. BEHIND THE SHOWERS...THAT LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR (ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING HIGH) WILL EAT AWAY AT WHAT
REMAINS OF THE LOW CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND PRODUCE
SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE
CENTRAL/EAST BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED
SUNSHINE...THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE U.P. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. DUE TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AREAS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. SEEING HIGHS IN
THE MID-UPPER 40S.

THE HIGH TRIES TO NOSE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS LEADS TO LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND PRODUCES CONCERNS ON HOW
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLEAR SKIES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.25IN (NEARING RECORD LOW VALUE
FOR KGRB SOUNDING ON 5/31 AT 12Z OF 0.23IN) WOULD LEAD TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BUT WITH THE HIGH STAYING TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT FLOW TO (925MB WINDS OF 20-25KTS) TO LEAD TO SOME MIXING
AND KEEP THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING.
THAT BEING SAID...STILL THINK AREAS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE
NORMAL COLD RAWS SITES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH GRB...ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/IRON AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES
FOR TONIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S (WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BOUNCING OF
VALUES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE IN SOME
LOCATIONS). HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL U.P. AND
THE KEWEENAW FOR THE EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND FROST. DID LEAVE
OUT SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTY FOR NOW...SINCE FORECASTED LOWS ARE IN
THE MID 30S AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER. THAT LED TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE
FINAL LOOK.

FINALLY...THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE MICHIGAMME RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL
FALLS CONTINUES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VALUES STAYING STEADY
ABOUT 0.1FT ABOVE ACTION STAGE OVER THE LAST 18-20HRS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

FAIR AGREEMENT IN GENERAL LOOK OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. DEEP TROUGH THAT IS OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND MOVES
EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN SHOULD DROP ACROSS NW ONTARIO ON
MONDAY WHILE DEEPENING A TOUCH. ONLY IMPACT FM THIS TROUGH WOULD BE
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY
AFFECT FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. DID NOT RAISE TEMPS TOO MUCH FM
PREVIOUS FORECAST THOUGH SINCE PWATS ARE STILL LOW AROUND 0.30 INCH
AND WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WOULD FALL OFF INTO
THE UPR 20S OR LOWER 30S AS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD.

TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS AND HEADS EAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL STILL BE BLO NORMAL ON MONDAY. COOLEST READINGS IN THE 40S AND
50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE WINDS ALL DAY. WARMEST READINGS
INLAND WEST WHERE TEMPS REACH MID TO POSSIBLY UPR 60S. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY/FROSTY
NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BTWN DEPARTING TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND STRONGER TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLOWLY
FORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. PRIMARY MODELS SHOWING DISAGREEMENT HOW
QUICK A WEAKER SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG IN WSW FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGS
RAIN BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY.

GFS BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE AND H85-H7 AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVEGENCE
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MAINLY WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND NW CWA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTN. ECMWF IS FARTHER EAST WITH THE MOISTURE. LINGERING
WEAK SFC GRADIENT COULD SUPPORT LAKE BREEZES ON WEDNESDAY AFTN...BUT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN AT
THAT POINT. OVERALL SOME ISOLD SHRA MAY MAKE IT INTO WEST UPR
MICHIGAN WED AFTN AS THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WELL
AHEAD OF THE WAVE /MORE SO ON THE GEM-NH/...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
TSRA. THOUGH INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON WED
NIGHT THERE ARE HINTS ADDITIONAL WAVES MAY BE LIFTING IN DUE TO
UPSTREAM SHRA/TSRA OR JUST BECAUSE REGION IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
LARGER WEST CONUS TROUGH. HARD TO TIME...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TYPICALLY
WILL SHOW UP IN THE WSW FLOW AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. INCREASING H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA AS IT INTERACTS WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY /1000-700MB MUCAPES 500-1000J/KG SLIDING IN FM
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/. H85-H7 FLOW IS
FM WSW SO THIS COULD PROPEL SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM CLOSER
TO HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN CWA. PWATS UP TOWARD 1.5 INCHES
AND WEAKER CORFIDI VECTORS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IF
SHRA/TSRA OCCUR. GEM-NH IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH FARTHER EAST SOLN
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOW THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SLOWER. POPS
WILL BE KEPT IN THE CHANCE RANGE...PRETTY SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS. DID
LOWER POPS INITIALLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED BASED ON SLOWER TRENDS.

LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND A SFC LOW REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEST-EAST FRONT SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LK SUPERIOR AHEAD OF COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. CONVERGENCE OF THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARIES PROBABLY KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES GOING
ON THURSDAY. STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY IS OVER MID
TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...H85/H7 WINDS FM SW COULD PULL MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE BACK OVER UPR MICHIGAN. LIKELY THE POPS THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE CANADIAN FRONT SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THE PLAINS LOW MOVES OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ALL WHILE DEEPER FORCING FM MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE REGION. SEEMS THAT GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AT ITS
MAX POINT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THAT
WILL SHAKE OUT. GFS NOT AS AGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. ECMWF WAS
MUCH MORE BULLISH...LIKELY DUE TO STRONGER SHORTWAVE IT RIDES OVER
THE EAST TO WEST FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF ONLY HAD
THIS STRONGER SHORTWAVE SINCE 12Z RUN ON 29 MAY...AND LATEST RUN
NOW IS QUITE WRAPPED UP WITH WAVE...AND HAS MORE OF A WRAPPED UP SFC
LOW TRACKING WEST OF LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN AS LATE AS FRIDAY
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS NEW TREND CONTINUES OR THE ECMWF
GOES BACK TO A WEAKER LOW. TEMPS FOR LATE WEEK WILL TREND ABOVE
NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE HELD DOWN DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES. NO MATTER...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS H85 DWPNTS
SURGE ABOVE +12C ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEST-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN NEXT
SATURDAY. AT LEAST AT FIRST GLANCE...AIRMASS NEXT WEEKEND DOES NOT
APPEAR AS COLD AS THE ONE AFFECTING ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY NEXT
SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT IT. LOWERED TEMPS OVER CONSENSUS CLOSER TO LK
SUPERIOR WITH STIFF NE WINDS FLOWING OVER THE CHILLY LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS /UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S AS OF THIS MORNING PER MTU AND
NOAA BUOY DATA/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT IWD AND SAW ARE QUICKLY MOVING BACK TO VFR AT THE
THICK CLOUDS SINK SE OF THE SITES. AFTER...LOOK FOR VFR CEILINGS/VIS
TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE N WINDS GUSTING
18-25KTS AT CMX AND SAW WILL BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR W ONTARIO PUSHES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS LAKE SUPERIOR IS BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT AND A HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM MANITOBA. EXPECT
NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25KTS THIS MORNING (AND MAYBE SOME GUSTS TO
30KTS AT THE HIGHER PLATFORMS) BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS HIGH
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS (LARGELY UNDER 15KTS) THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

FINALLY...WILL ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TO EXPIRE AT 5AM THIS MORNING DUE TO THE DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR ARRIVING WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE LACK OF FOG ON SHIP
OBSERVATIONS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     /7 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003>006-011>013.

  FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     /7 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-009-010-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...SRF



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