Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 190901
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

ANOTHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TONIGHT...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN VERY QUIET. THE DIURNAL
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING YIELDING ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MAY FILTER INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STAY AT 10 KT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH PAST THE MID 50S. IN FACT...DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE
NATURE OF THE FLOW...AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY STAY IN THE UPPER
50S AND EVEN LOWER 60S.

ON SATURDAY...THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH NW ONTARIO. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WEAK MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAILING END OF THE WAVE MOVING INTO
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...850MB AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE DECREASING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS LEAVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN 1/3
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS SPOTTY AT BEST. AS
SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REGIONAL GEM IS
CERTAINLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL OR UPPER FORCING...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY...AND EVEN THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
PESSIMISTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE 850MB
TEMPS BEING A LITTLE WARMER...MAINLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SUN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EVEN AS A FEW MODELS SHOWED SOME MINOR
QPF OVER PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG A PASSING VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINK
THAT SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME
DRY AIR.

SUN NIGHT/MON WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 22C. MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT RESIDUAL
CONVECTION MAY DECAY AS IT MOVES E INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ABOUT THIS OCCURRING. THINK THAT EVEN IF
DECAYING CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA...ENOUGH CLEARING WILL OCCUR
FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI AND IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE EAST HALF.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM OVER THE DAKOTAS ON MON TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT.
ALONG WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDUP OF
INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND A
40KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE CWA. GENERALLY...MODELS INDICATE OVER
2000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX AND COLD FRONT...WITH
PLENTY OF SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 9C/KM. THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A STOUT CAP OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...BUT IF A STRONG
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THE
CAP COULD EASILY BE OVERCOME. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH...THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING CONVECTION...AND THERE
IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER /LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY CONDITIONAL THREAT/.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A SFC HIGH SITS OVER THE CWA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS WELL W OF THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS. LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT
IWD AND CMX AS A WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE A SERIES OF LOW PRES
SYSTEMS/TROFS MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ONE TROF WILL FINALLY CROSS
THE AREA ON TUE BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WINDS THRU THE FCST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
OCNL PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS (15-25KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS
PLATFORMS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE...MAINLY AFTER SOME PCPN OCCURS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...MRD





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