Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 312346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
746 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ANOTHER GUSTY DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDER. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER THE CWA IS ALONG A LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE LINE FROM
NEAR SKANDIA TO NEAR MANISTIQUE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ANOTHER AREA OF
GREATER COVERAGE IS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THEN DIMINISH AFTER LOSS OF
SFC HEATING THIS EVENING. MODEL TRENDS FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN TOWARD
NO PRECIP...SO WENT ALONG WITH THAT IN REMOVING POPS TONIGHT. A SFC
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE W SAT...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED
TO THE ERN CWA AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES.

NW-WNW WIND GUSTS TO 21-23KTS ARE PRETTY STANDARD OVER LAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RH PERCENTAGES FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. HAVE
BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. SAT
LOOKS TO SEE SIMILAR RH LEVELS TO TODAY...BUT WINDS GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 3-5KTS LOWER THAN TODAY. WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SAT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE SRN FLANK OF
CLOSED LO OVER HUDSON BAY WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS AND BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/SOME TS TO UPR MI SAT NGT AND SUN. THE LAST SHRTWV
IS FCST TO AMPLIFY THE UPR TROF INTO THE GREAT LKS NEXT WEEK. SO
AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...NEXT WEEK WL FEATURE MUCH
COOLER WX.

SAT NGT THRU SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF INITIAL
SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW ARE FCST TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON SAT
EVNG. AS THE LLVL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WSW...THE GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...HINTS AT A RETURN OF HIER H85 DEWPTS UNDER
THE INCOMING DYNAMICS. SO DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...PLAN TO
ADD CHC POPS FOR SAT NGT. BASED ON EXPECTATION OF MORE MSTR RETURN/
CLD COVER...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CONCERNS THEN
SHIFT TO IMPACT OF DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHRTWV ON THE
STRONGER TRAILING DISTURBANCE THAT WL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON SUN.
THE 12Z NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING SOME LLVL DRYING/
NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE AND
FCSTS ONLY LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ARRIVAL OF ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. BUT EVEN THE DRIER NAM SHOWS MUCAPE INCRSG
TO 500-1000 J/KG...SO WL RETAIN CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUN. FCST
WL SHOW THE HIER POPS FOCUSED OVER THE SE CWA DUE TO GREATER
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC BTWN COLD
FNT/LK BREEZES OFF LK MI. EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH NW-SE LATER IN THE
DAY WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND DRYING FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA.

SUN NGT...ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHRTWV IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN
A DRY FCST. AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS INTO THE UPR LKS AND H85 TEMPS
FALL TOWARD 6-8C BY 12Z MON...MODELS SHOW SOME INCRSG SFC-H85 MSTR
IN MORE CYC LLVL NW FLOW. EXPECT INCRSG SC OVER MAINLY THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA WITH UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AS THE COOLER
PUSHES INTO THE CWA.

MON...WITH WEAKLY CYC NW H85 FLOW...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LLVL MSTR
FCST UNDER LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL INVRN AND INCOMING H85
THERMAL TROF...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF CU/SC WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A
NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT QPF...SO WL RETAIN SOME LO
CHC POPS MAINLY AWAY FM LK SUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION/SHOWERS. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C
RANGE AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER...EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY/BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.

MON NGT...ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW/NOCTURNAL COOLING UNDER
CONTINUED LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
DISSIPATION OF THE LO CLDS. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLRG...THE
COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL
INTO THE 40S.

TUE THRU FRI...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING THRU THE UPR LKS ON
TUE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...SO WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS. DURING
THE MID/LATE WEEK TIME...LARGER SCALE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST AROUND FAIRLY DEEP UPR TROF IN SE CANADA. THERE IS POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THESE
FEATURES...SO WL HOLD ON TO MODEL CONSENSUS POPS. LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHC FOR DRY WX IS ON WED. TEMPS WL RUN BLO NORMAL DURING THE
LONGER TERM PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS DRY. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE ON
SAT...WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT AGAIN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS



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