Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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293
FXUS63 KMQT 240736
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
336 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 601 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

Bumped up pops for showers/TS over the far wrn CWA where latest SPC
mesoanalysis indicates MUCAPE up to 1000 j/kg under sharp gradient
of pwat. Still looks like the more numerous showers/TS wl stay over
wrn Lk Sup. With effective lyr shear no more than about 25-30kts,
severe TS are not likely.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over southern
Saskatchewan with a trough in the northern rockies, a closed low
along the mid atlantic seaboard and a 500 mb ridge over the upper
Great Lakes. A shortwave will eject out of the central plains this
afternoon and will head northeast and affect the area tonight and
bring with it some convection. This shortwave will also help to
flatten the ridge over the area. Nam brings in some weak 850-500 mb
q-vector convergence with a narrow ribbon of deeper moisture moving
through the western cwa tonight and then across the ern cwa on Tue.
Overall, the going forecast has things pretty well in hand and did
not make too many changes to the going forecast. Kept temperatures
about the same. One thing I did do is cut back the pops a bit and
moved them further back a couple hours as the airmass is very dry
and will take a while to moisten up.

As for fire weather, will continue to let the red flag warning
continue through 8 pm as winds will finally die down and
temperatures will fall a bit, so relative humidities will slowly
increase this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Challenging forecast in the long term as almost every period will
see chances for convection sparked by multiple shortwaves ejecting
out of the upper trough over the western CONUS. As is expected in
this scenario, models disagree and have worse than normal
continuity. Leaned heavily on consensus blends given limited
confidence in any one model. No chances for severe weather can be
pinpointed at this time.

Wed morning starts the long term in a quiet way as ridging is
overhead. Convection may move in along all or a portion of the WI
border in the afternoon or evening depending on shortwave
timing/track and resulting convective trends.

After Wed just stuck with the blends given aforementioned limited
confidence.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 128 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Since CMX/IWD wl be on the ern edge of a moister airmass ahead of an
aprchg cold fnt, some SHRA and even a few TS wl impact those
locations at times thru the ngt. As the front moves toward the area
this mrng and thru the sites by this aftn, some sct showers wl
impact SAW toward daybreak but tend to diminish at CMX/IWD late in
the aftn. Although VFR conditions wl prevail ahead of the cold fnt,
the arrival of a shallow moist airmass in its wake wl cause some lo
clds and MVFR/IFR cigs following its passage at least for a time.
The best chc for LIFR conditions wl be at SAW after sunset tngt with
an upslope flow off the moistening influence of Lk Sup in the
presence of nocturnal cooling.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 223 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

Southerly winds of up to 25 knots are expected through this evening
as a low pressure trough approaches from the west. The trough will
stall over the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday through Friday, bringing
winds generally under 20 knots.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07



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