Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 180916
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
416 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM EST WED JAN 17 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a deep 500 mb trough over the ern U.S.
this morning and a shortwave over Alberta. This shortwave moves to
the east and affects the area late tonight into Thu morning.
Shortwave ridging then begins to build into the area Thu afternoon.
Deeper moisture and dynamics move through Thu morning. Moisture is
limited and will have slight chance to low chance pops as this moves
through with little snow accumulation expected. Overall, did not
make too many changes to the going forecast and looks quiet.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 416 AM EST THU JAN 18 2018

...Potential winter storm is still on track for Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday morning...

The early portion of the extended forecast, Friday through Saturday,
is set to be fairly quiet. There is a chance of mixed precip as a
shortwave slides through the area and temperatures steadily warm
during the day Friday. The precipitation would be fairly light the
shortwave will be fast moving shortwave  and is progged to slide
through the north half of the U.P. The best moisture/forcing will
likely stay north of the area; however, the Keweenaw and locations
along Lake Superior over the far east could see a quick dusting of
snow or possibly even a light glaze. It doesn`t take much in the way
of light freezing rain to make roads slippery, so travelers will
need to remain aware of changing road conditions. Temperatures will
steadily warm into the afternoon hours Friday so overall impacts
should be limited in areal extent and confined mainly to the morning
hours. Actually, it looks like high temperatures will warm above
normal with upper 30s to near 40 degree readings possible Friday
into Saturday.

Attention turns to the potential winter storm for late Sunday
afternoon possibly lingering through Tuesday morning. Models are in
agreement with the low developing over the Plains/mid Mississippi
Valley Sunday morning, and then lifting the low north and eastward
into the Upper Great Lakes. There are differences beginning to show
up in the model runs, with the EC being slower with the system and
farther east, while the GFS/GEM are now farther west. The exact
track will have a great impact on where the heaviest snow bands set
up. The system would likely have plenty of moisture to work with as
the southerly flow is progged to be wide open to the Gulf of Mexico
moisture source. Models are still showing several inches of snow
across much of western and possibly central Upper Michigan; however,
the central and east do have the potential for mixed precipitation,
depending on the track and subsequent positioning of dry slot and
banding features. The large scale features that would be responsible
for this potential winter storm are still outside of the more
densely populated observation platforms, so it is expected that the
exact path of the low and associated heaviest snow band will vary
over the next few days. Again, confidence in forecasting this
potential winter storm will increase over the next couple days as
the system is better sampled. At this point, it will definitely be
worth keeping an eye on for the potential of widespread heavy snow
Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.

Tuesday and beyond, a consensus of the model blends was used. This
gives intermittent chance of lake effect snow; however, exact
placement will be dependent upon wind direction and placement of the
aforementioned stronger storm system.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1236 AM EST THU JAN 18 2018

A clipper shortwave is expected to bring scattered light snow
showers to mainly KCMX Thursday. Cigs are also likely to drop to
MVFR at all sites and possibly IFR at KMCX, but confidence in the
timing and cig values is limited.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 157 PM EST WED JAN 17 2018

W to WSW gales will diminish this evening. Next gale event looks to
be late Sun night across western Lake Superior with northeast gales
expected. North to northeast gales across Lake Superior Mon through
Tue are expected as well.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07



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