Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 200701
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF





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