Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 261807
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
107 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET DEEP WINTER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON SETTLES TO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC TROUGH DROPPING OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY MAINLY NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK LIFT FM THAT SHORTWAVE COULD RAISE
LAKE INDUCED INVERSIONS OVER LK SUPERIOR A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET.
WIDESPREAD ICE COVER SHOULD MORE THAN OFFSET THAT AFFECT THOUGH. AS
HAS BEEN CASE TODAY...AT LEAST ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR WHERE
WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2-3KFT ARE ONSHORE. LESS THAN IDEAL SNOW GROWTH
AND LIMTED FLUXES/INSTENSITY WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT
THOUGH. COLD WILL REMAIN THE MAIN STORY. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS LATER
TONIGHT TO BE AS LOW AS SEEN ON THU MORNING AS THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH WIND 975-950MB AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO PROHIBIT
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING. NUDGED TEMPS UP TO THE ZERO TO 5 BLO
RANGE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WHERE A PERSISTENT...ALBEIT LIGHT...SFC WIND
STIRS MOST OF THE NIGHT. FARTHER INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...READINGS
MAY STILL MAKE RUN AT 20 BLO IF THE WIND BECOMES COMPLETELY CALM.
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LIGHTER WINDS FARTHER INLAND AND ALSO WARMER
TEMPS ALONG THE SHORE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE NEED FOR A
WIND CHILL ADVY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WEAK LAKE EFFECT ON KEWEENAW TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WSW AND PUSH IT OVER MAINLY EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. PLENTY OF SUN
AND SOME MIXING LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WILL SEE DIURNAL CU FORM BY
MIDDAY AND THERE MAY EVEN BE FLURRIES IF IT BECOMES DEVELOPED ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED
BY NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLOW MODERATING TREND AS THE COLDEST AIR
RETREATS INTO NE CANADA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE SW CONUS RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AND MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.

FRI INTO SAT...WINDS BACKING TO SW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WILL PUSH ANY LINGERING LES OFFSHORE. WEAK WAA AND LATE
FEBRUARY SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE TEENS FRI AND TO
AROUND 20 SATURDAY.

SUN...THE MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WILL ONLY BRING A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW AT MOST AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/PCPN
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE 850MB FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES.

MON-TUE...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS INTO THE MID 20S. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT AS THE SW CONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS...SHORTWAVES EMERGING
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING A LARGE
SHIELD OF PCPN INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY
BE ON THE NRN END OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN...THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD GREATER PCPN AMOUNTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. FOR
NOW...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
THE PATTERN/DETAILS WILL DEVELOP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

NNW WINDS ARE BRINGING LAKE EFFECT WITH IFR VSBY AT TIMES TO KIWD
AND KSAW. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT
BOTH THESE SITES TO CLEAR OUT BUT THE LAKE EFFECT MAY IN TURN BEGIN
TO AFFECT KCMX. IFR VSBY COULD OCCUR THERE AS WELL...BUT ONLY WENT
MVFR AS THE TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FLOWING ACROSS A LOT OF THICKER FAST
ICE. AS WINDS TURN MORE WSW BY FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE
EFFECT TO DEPART KCMX. WINDS OVERALL WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTN AT ALL THE TAF SITES...THEN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

LAKE SUPERIOR IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED THIS AFTN. NW WINDS TO 20 KTS
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THAT WILL LIKELY ALTER THE ICE COVERAGE SOME. BEYOND FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30 KTS...WHILE SHIFING FM SW TO
NW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES
OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA



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