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000
FXUS63 KMQT 092008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

GIVEN PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
/BEEN SLOWER TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL ABLE TO GET TO 39F AT IWD
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. COULD SEE TEMPS JUMP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARM LAYER ALOFT /GENERALLY AROUND 850MB/ WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS PRECIP-TYPE WISE. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THE SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY DRY. EVEN IF MIXED PRECIP DID OCCUR IT WOULD
BE VERY LIGHT...AND LIKELY CHANGE BACK TO MAINLY SNOW DUE TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. CURRENTLY HAVE TO LOOK N OF THE SFC LOW/COLD
FRONT AND CLOSER TO THE 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO WELL N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TO SEE IFR CEILINGS AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SE...AND GLANCE E LAKE SUPERIOR/E UPPER MI
WITH LIGHT PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI FROM APPROX 09-15Z LATE TONIGHT INTO MID DAY
MONDAY. HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S
THROUGH MUCH OF WI AND IA...AND NO VIS RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY
NOTED...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR MUCH TO DEVELOP. FCST MODELS HAVE
THE INITIAL VIS REDUCTIONS OVER FAR W MN AND CENTRAL IA BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER /LOW 30S/. HAVE KEPT A
SMALL POTENTIAL IN THE AVIATION FCST...BUT WILL NOT PUT ANYTHING
MORE THAN PATCHY FOG INTO THE PUBLIC FCST PRODUCTS/GRIDS.

WARMER MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON...WITH
HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 50F FROM WATERSMEET THROUGH MNM ALONG THE WI
BORDER. ALL THIS DESPITE W WINDS. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SSW AND LIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK...BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE W WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S AGAIN.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD STAY OVER OR N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS
A LOT OF ICE PUSHING N TODAY...WITH MUCH MORE OPEN WATER...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WHILE A
COUPLE OF THIN CLOUD STREAMERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF THE W-WNW WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE JUST TOO WARM TO PRODUCE A
WHOLE LOT. 850MB TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM -1 TO -4C ARE FCST ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINUSLA BY 00Z TUESDAY /LOWEST OFF THE GFS/.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE AND EASTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD ENSURING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. ONLY
BRIEFLY DOES THIS PATTERN APPEAR TO FLATTEN OUT ALLOWING FOR A
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TO BRING IN WARMER TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAYS WARMUP WILL SHIFT E OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH ITS ASSOC SFC LOW. MIN TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID
20S.

WITH THE LOW SHIFTING EAST INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AND LEAD TO A COOLER DAY ON
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAYS
READINGS AND CLOSER TO NORMAL. WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LOW-LVL
LAPSE RATES STEEPENING...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF TUE AFTERNOON.

SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL TUE NIGHT AND BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND -21C
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. INCREASED LOW-LVL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT
ALONG WITH SOME RECENT BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR ICE
COVER SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED N-NE UPSLOPE
AREAS...MAINLY OVER MQT AND BARAGA COUNTY WHERE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER SOME LOCATIONS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND QUICKLY LOWERS
INVERSION HGTS AND BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...LOOK FOR WED NIGHT TO BE A VERY COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS AND
PWATS ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WILL FAVOR BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEM-NH BIAS FOR WED NIGHT TEMPS. PRETTY GOOD BET IT WILL COOL OFF
FAST ENOUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING TO ADD BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO
THE SUB ZERO TEMP DAYS THIS SEASON WHICH WOULD PUSH NWS MQT TO A
RECORD 58 DAYS FOR THE WINTER SEASON. THIS WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 57 DAYS (SET IN 1962-63) AT OUR OFFICE.

WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
QUICKLY RISING TEMPERATURES ON THU. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO
RISE INTO THE LOWER 20S EAST AND LOWER 30S WEST. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
CWA WITH THE WAA...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FCST FOR WEST AND
CENTRAL CWA ON THURSDAY. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TRACK WITH THE
GFS MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLNS. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREV RUN AND NOW LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE TRACK OF THE 00Z GEM-NH ACROSS NW AND NCNTRL UPPER MI. THIS
TRACK IS MORE IN LINE WITH GOING FCST FOR POPS AND EXPECTED QPF AND
GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSE TO THIS FCST WHICH
WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE BETTER CHC OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPS ACROSS
UPPER MI FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND ALSO BRINGING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 03Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM 09-15Z MONDAY. DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING W WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP SCOUR OUT SOME OF
THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE /STUCK AT OR BELOW 4KFT/ DURING THE DAY.
THIS WILL BE DESPITE THE INCREASING SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S OVER W UPPER MI AND DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE LOW 30S.
ADVECTION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP LOWER CEILINGS/VIS
OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
FOG TO IFR CONDITION WOULD BE AT SAW THROUGH MID MORNING WITH S-SW
WINDS BEFORE THEY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE W.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

WSW GUSTS NEAR 25KTS THIS EVENING WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN OUT OF A MAINLY W DIRECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENING DURING THE
DAY MONDAY AS A REINFORCING LOW SWINGS IN FROM THE NW. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN EXIT INTO S QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE W TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY /WITH GUSTS NEARING 25KTS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/...AND SLIP
SE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
THURSDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY /WITH
W-NW GUSTS AGAIN NEARING 25KTS/.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF