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000
FXUS63 KMQT 262012
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MQT 88D REMAINS DOWN AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST INFORMATION IS THAT IT
COULD BE UP AS EARLY AS LATER TONIGHT...OR SOMETIME MONDAY IF
ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE NEEDED.

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE...MAINLY PULSING UP AND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA. DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN NOTED S CENTRAL...ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR. SO
FAR...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE COME IN ON US-2 NEAR GLADSTONE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS /ACROSS WI/ WILL CLIP S CENTRAL UPPER MI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WAITING FOR THE MAIN LOW. THIS
LOW IS EASILY VISIBLE OFF THE 19Z SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPINNING SW OF
LAKE WINNIPEG. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN...AND SOME FOG STILL EVIDENT ACROSS MAINLY N CENTRAL AND E
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN...AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.

LOOK FOR THE STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TO PUSH ACROSS NW MN AROUND
06Z...WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM OUR INITIAL THINKING
OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF OF AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. OF COURSE...HIGHER AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CAPES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FOR SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...CAUSING THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE UNDER THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO THE
DEFORMATION AXIS AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULAION. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE POPS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
CATEGORICAL. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON
SUNDAY...MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY.

HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +6C
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD THINK WITH THESE TYPE OF
850MB TEMPS AND THE DRYING ALOFT /PWAT VALUES LOWER TO BELOW 0.75
IN/.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST...EXPECT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT...AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE AREA EACH DAY IN
THE EXTENDED DUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...MANY SPOTS WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
WILL RISE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CEILINGS AND VIS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WILL SLOWLY FALL
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
S MANITOBA CROSSES THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE S OF THE 3 TAF SITES...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY TS MENTION
AT THIS TIME. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING AT CMX...WITH FAVORABLE E FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSLOPE N-NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT SAW BY
MID-LATE MORNING...KEEPING LOWER CEILINGS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS AROUND 25KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DEEPENING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.  IN THE MEANTIME...LOOK FOR A LARGE HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS SAME AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPS ACROSS ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF