Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 212001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
301 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM EST TUE FEB 21 2017

Skies have cleared nicely this afternoon and has allowed to
temperatures to climb into the upper 40s and 50s, with a few
isolated 60s. Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy lifting
northeast of the area and allowing more zonal flow to develop
across the northern plains.

Expect fairly tranquil conditions to prevail tonight and through
much of the day on Wednesday. With dew point temperatures expected
to remain around/slightly above freezing tonight, we should see yet
another night where overnight lows remain above freezing. There is
the potential to see fog, especially across eastern portions of the
area where boundary layer winds will be lighter. Could see some
drizzle develop; however, with how dry the low-levels look via
soundings not too confident that any drizzle will accompany the

On Wednesday, expect another day with unseasonably warm
temperatures, but expect increasing cloud cover throughout the
day as low pressure begins to move in from the west as shortwave
energy approaches the area. Precipitation should hold off until
the late afternoon/evening hours as it spreads west to east upon
the arrival of the deeper lift. Forecast soundings show
temperatures should remain above freezing, so expect precipitation
to remain all liquid at least through the afternoon and evening
hours, before transitioning back over to wintry precipitation late
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 419 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2017

Models continue to struggle with consistent handling of shortwave
energy and associated precip Wed afternoon into early Thu. Overall
best chances of a wintry mix are over the north. No significant
impacts are expected at this time

Attention then turns to a low pressure system that models continue
to show moving just SE of the CWA or along the SE edge of the CWA
Thu night into early Sat. Still plenty of time for the track,
intensity and speed to shift considerably as the upper energy is
still over AK and there will be interaction with an upper low moving
across southern Canada. At this point, the best heavy snow potential
is over the central and/or western Upper Michigan, especially in
areas favored by upslope NE/NNE winds, but these details may change
significantly. Over the southeastern CWA, better chances for mixed
precip exist. Blowing snow also appears to be an issue near Lake
Superior. Definitely bears close watching by those with weather
sensitive interests.

Beyond that system, much cooler temps and generally NW wind LES are
expected through Mon. Southerly winds Tue will change things up with
a temporary end to LES as it appears now.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM EST TUE FEB 21 2017

Skies will remain mostly clear through this afternoon, with a few
lingering scatter low-level clouds across the Keweenaw and
lightening winds as weak surface ridging moves overhead. Tonight
into Wednesday morning as a surface low will begin to track across
the area, winds look fairly light and even variable at a few
terminals, especially KCMX/KSAW. Models are fairly consistent with
stratus filling in across all terminals early Wednesday morning.
Not terribly confident in how low visibilities will get, with
boundary layer winds between 10-15 knots, so have opted to go with
high-end IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities for now.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 300 PM EST TUE FEB 21 2017

Winds will back to the south overnight ahead of a weak area of low
pressure progged to traverse the northern plains tonight. The
pressure gradient will remain maximized, albeit still on the weaker
side across eastern portions of the lake where winds of 15 to 25
knots can be expected. Late Wednesday as low pressure traverses the
area, winds will veer to the north from west to east across the
lake, around 10 to 20 knots. As low pressure exits the region
Wednesday night into Thursday expect north winds to increase in
speeds to around 25 knots. Winds will decrease in speed during the
day on Thursday as the pressure gradient relaxes. However, expect
winds to become northeasterly and increase in speed Thursday night
into Friday ahead of a system progged to lift north across the area.
By Friday morning, northeast winds will increase to around 25 to 30
knots, and further increase to gales during the afternoon hours.
Friday night into Saturday, could still see the gale force gusts
continue, but winds will back to the north.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


SHORT TERM...Ritzman
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