Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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561
FXUS63 KMQT 291742
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
142 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 137 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Through Sat, high pressure ridge currently centered over Lk Superior
slides east across northern Ontario and Quebec beneath weak split
wnw flow aloft. Dry weather will continue with sct-bkn cu this aftn
and again Sat aftn. Light winds and mainly clear skies support some
potential for shallow fog tonight, especially inland central and east
where temps fall off into the 40s again. Lowest PWAT is forecast over
east half so typical cold spots could be dip to upper 30s to near 40
similar to readings observed at cold spots over the west U.P. last
night. Highs on Sat will end up in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
Less direct influence of the high pressure will result in weaker lake
breezes so even shoreline areas should reach into at least the low
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 502 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Weak mid/upper level troughing over the southern Great Lakes and
ridging over northern Ontario will leave sfc ridging in place across
the nrn Lakes through the weekend resulting in dry weather and
temperatures near seasonal averages. The forecast into next week will
be influenced by a trough lifting from BC and the Pacific northwest
into nrn Manitoba Tue that will be reinforced by another vigorous
shrtwv Wed into Thu. Strengthening srly flow and moisture advection
will bring warmer and more humid conditions into the region along
with an increasing chance for shra/tsra as a frontal boundary nears
and eventually pushes through the area and weak shrtwvs brush the
area.

Saturday through Monday, expect gradual warming with max temps
climbing a few degrees each day. On Mon, max temps will generally be
in the low/mid 80s. Dewpoints will also increase into the low to mid
60s by Mon. Some models are producing isold pcpn near or over parts
of the fcst area from Saturday night into Monday. Confidence is low
with any weak shrtwvs that may affect the region. In addition, the
shallow moisture profile will also not be favorable for diurnal
convection.

Tuesday-Thursday, temperatures are expected to climb into the low to
mid 80s with dewpoints into the mid and upper 60s. A front nearing
the area may support some sct shra/tsra into mainly the west Tue
that could spread to the east by Tue night. With the sfc and mid
level low well to the nw over nrn Manitoba, shra/tsra will likely
decrease as the pcpn moves toward the ern cwa. Larger model
differences lower confidence by Wednesday as the more amplified
ECMWF keeps a stronger ridge over the wrn lakes compared to the
flatter GFS/GEFS. The GFS is also faster bringing the stronger
shrtwv and sfc front through the region Thursday compared to the
ECMWF.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Scattered or broken cu clouds especially this aftn along the lake
breeze boundary at SAW. Expect VFR conditions and light winds to
prevail at all 3 TAF sites this fcst period. May be some patchy
ground fog late tonight, with best chance at SAW. At this point
wouldn`t expect the fog to reduce visibility much below MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 137 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

High pressure will linger across the Great Lakes into middle of next
week. This will keep winds around or less than 15 kts.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA



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