Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 192343
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
743 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO W UPPER MI. A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE LOW CENTER
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY...THROUGH CNTRL
UPPER MI. WITH THE SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT...PWAT AROUND 1.5
INCHES...AND EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES...NEARLY 2.0 INCHES OF
RAIN FELL AT THE NWS OFFICE BTWN 1915Z-1945Z. AN FLS WAS ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING WITH SMALL STREAMS AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NW UPPER MI.

EXPECT THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TO ONLY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE EAST
TO CNTRL/EAST UPPER MI BY 12Z/WED AND TO NEAR THE STRAITS BY 00Z/THU.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
THE SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI THIS EVENING.
ONLY ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED...GIVEN AFTERNOON TRENDS AND MUCAPE BLO
1K J/KG.

OTHERWISE...HIGH RES MODELS AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH FURTHER
OVERNIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WED MORNING...SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE N CNTRL AND EAST
EVEN WITH WEAK FORCING NEAR THE LOW. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PULLING OUT ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS WAVE PULLS OUT...SHOULD SEE A DRY PERIOD OVER MUCH
OF THE U.P. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING) BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND REMAINS INTO FRIDAY. THE DRY PERIOD WILL BE AIDED BY THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS THAT RIDGING OCCURS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EJECT OUT A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO ONTARIO ON
FRIDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH HOW PROGRESSIVE
THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW (AND WARM FRONT) ARE...AND IT
IS LARGELY TIED INTO THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. AT THIS
POINT...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER (KEEPS THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA DUE TO WEAKER SHORTWAVE UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY) WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...ALONG WITH THE 12Z GEM/NAM...BRING THE WARM FRONT INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THINK THE NON GFS CONSENSUS IS THE WAY
TO GO AT THIS POINT AND FOLLOWS THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT. THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN KEEP
CHANCE POPS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON CONVECTION FIRING IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAXIMUM IS LOCATED. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS IN THAT AREA...WHICH BASED OFF STORM MOTION
VECTORS WOULD TRY TO LIFT THEM EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE FRONT
WHILE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WOULD
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SEEING THESE STRONGER STORMS HEADING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

ONCE THAT WAVE DECAYS AND SLIDES NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON OTHER WAVES EJECTING OUT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
RIGHT OVER THE U.P. THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST.
WITH THAT RIDGE AXIS...IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR DRIER WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE SLIDES NORTHEAST
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT IT TO BE FAIRLY MUGGY OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND....ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THIS
REGION FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. AFTER THE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT
ESE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIFR TO POSSIBLY OCNL VLIFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU AT LEAST MID MORNING WED. -SHRA/-DZ ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX/KSAW. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD OCCUR WED AFTN...THOUGH ONLY KIWD MAY REACH VFR BY THE LATTER
PART OF THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN LAKE TONIGHT
GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WINDS
UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ABOVE THE RELATIVELY COLD WATERS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB





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