Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 151921
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
221 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

The short term will be quiet as zonal flow spreads eastward across
Canada. A couple of shortwaves will be tracking across s central
Canada to northern Ontario. With the track of the waves to the n of
here and with the main push of waa/isentropic ascent passing well to
the n, pcpn is of no concern. In fact, fcst soundings show a deep
dry column dominating today/tonight. So, a sunny day is expected
today and clear skies tonight. There is one exception, and that is
lingering lake effect clouds that are currently affecting parts of
the Keweenaw and especially the eastern fcst area. As winds back sw
this morning, expect these clouds to clear out, allowing for a sunny
aftn in those areas as well. Under sunny skies and waa, temps today
will rebound into the mid 20s to lower 30s, warmest over the nw part
of the fcst area at locations where sw winds downslope and coolest
downwind of the mostly ice covered bay of Green Bay. With some
locations over the interior w half currently aob -10F, this will be
quite a warm up from early morning conditions. This morning will
also be the last time subzero temps are recorded in Upper MI for
probably at least 2 weeks. While mins tonight will be mostly in the
teens, some locations along Lake Superior may not fall blo 20F, and
some locations over the south central where winds will be lightest
may dip into the single digits.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

Still watching Mon night and Tue for potential mixed precip, but
models have been trending SE and slightly colder with the system
which is putting the significant weather threat out of the CWA.
Still, since the two waves that will be interacting to create this
are still over MT and entering TX, there is room for changes to
guidance. Overall best chances for precip are over the SE CWA, near
Lake Michigan, where a wintry mix is forecast, but amounts are not
of concern currently.

Wed and Thu look dry and warmer thanks to increased ridging aloft.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s while lows remain in the 20s
in most spots.

Late this week into this weekend is highly uncertain as models
depict the upper ridge being attacked by multiple waves coming in
from the W. Rain chances move in late Fri and stick around through
Sun. Highs will be around 40F and lows should be near or just above
freezing.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

With a dry air mass associated with high pres dominating thru this
fcst period, VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. As the
high moves off to the east later today/tonight, increasing w to sw
winds above sfc based inversion will result in marginal LLWS at
KIWD/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 425 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

Tightening pres gradient between high pres to the s and low pres
tracking ese toward northern Ontario will lead to increasing sw
winds across Lake Superior today into this evening. Aided by max
pres falls passing n of the lake, expect winds to reach gale force
over portions of western and north central Lake Superior this aftn
and evening. Winds will then diminish to under 15kt Mon thru at
least Mon evening as a high pres ridge moves over the area. There
will be some increase in winds late Mon night/Tue morning, mainly
over eastern Lake Superior as low pres tracks ne toward Lower MI.
Winds will then be mostly 20kt or less thru the mid and late week
period as conditions become unseaonably warm over the Upper Lakes
with no significant weather features impacting the area.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Monday for LSZ243-244-263-264.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Rolfson



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