Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 230737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
337 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the wrn U.S. and
troughing in the east with a ridge across the central U.S. poking
into the upper Great Lakes this morning. The ridge builds into the
upper Great Lakes tonight and remains through Monday.

Looks quiet and very warm for this forecast period and did not make
too many changes to the going forecast overall. Kept in some chance
pops far west in the late afternoon Monday. Fire weather will
continue to be a concern for Monday with low relative humidities and
plenty of sunshine available with wind gusts up to 30 mph. This
would be enough to cause red flag conditions and will issue a red
flag warning for all of the U.P. and cancel the watch as conditions
are very high for wildfires.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

Several rounds of convection are expected in the long term, with
POPs almost every period. Put focus into Tue through Wed night as
consensus blend will adequately handle conditions beyond then.

A weakening cold front over western Upper MI Tue morning will
continue to move southeast through the day Tue while a shortwave
moves through and lake breezes form. All these will help fire
convection in an area of increasing CAPE out ahead of the front and
on the warm side of lake breezes. At this time, think that 500-1000
J/kg of CAPE will develop mainly over interior west and central
Upper MI with high temperatures up to 80 degrees. Low level winds
will be weak as will shear, so not expecting organized severe
storms. However, there is potential for some strong storms.

Tue night through most of Wed looks mostly dry, aside from a stray
shower or two, as surface and upper riding passes overhead.

Convection returns late Wed (mainly after 00Z Thu) as a shortwave
moves in from the southwest. Another shortwave move through just
behind the first, possibly keeping convection over the area into Thu
night. Due to timing of initial convection late Wed, CAPE will not
be sufficient for severe weather.

A more significant shortwave may move through the region late in the
week into the weekend, but confidence is fairly low at that point.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 137 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

As the pres gradient tightens over the Upper Lakes in the wake of hi
pres retreating to the E and in the presence of nocturnal cooling,
expect LLWS to impact the TAF sites this mrng. With daytime heating
by mid-late mrng, the strong SW winds just above the sfc-based invrn
wl mix out and result in gusty winds. Since the SSW flow wl be
tapping dry air thru today, VFR conditions wl be the rule at least
until this evng. As the SW flow draws moister air into the Upper
Lakes tngt ahead of an aprchg cold fnt, some shra/perhaps a TS may
move into IWD/CMX this evng.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 258 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Southerly winds of up to 25 knots are expected tonight through
Monday night as a low pressure trough approaches from the west. The
trough will stall over the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday through
Thursday, bringing winds generally under 20 knots.

Upper Michigan...
  Red Flag Warning from 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for MIZ001>015-084-085.

Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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