Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 280737
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE CLEARING LINE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF MN AND ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO SINK S ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. THE SFC
LOW HAS SHIFTED ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH TRAILING
ACROSS E UPPER MI THROUGH SE WI. DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO STICK
AROUND TOO MUCH LONGER. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS LINGERING BEHIND THE DRY
AIR SHIFTING IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. PW VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 1.15IN /110-125 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ WILL FALL TO AROUND
0.5-0.6IN BY 06Z MONDAY /50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL/. KEPT WITH THE
LOWER TEMP GUIDANCE STILL FOR TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL OF OUR
TYPICALLY COOL LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LARGE SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE N PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDS IT/S REACH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE MORNING ON. WENT MINIMAL ON THE CLOUDS
FOR NOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR ISLE ROYALE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CAN ALREADY BE SEEN PUSHING S OUT
OF W HUDSON BAY. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NW
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THEY MAY CLIP ISLE ROYALE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

OVERALL...LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (FOR LATE JULY) FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL PLACE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND THE UPPER LOW ROTATING NEAR JAMES BAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PERIODICALLY DROP THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING LEAD TO A LARGELY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TUESDAY...AS THE
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW RISING POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
PEAKING IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND AROUND
20-25KTS AND WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY 200-700 J/KG (AND SKINNY
WITH NCAPE VALUES BELOW 0.08) DON/T EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT AT
THIS POINT. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER OR SOUTH CENTRAL THAT SEE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50IN OF
RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TRACK.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
(MAINLY INTERIOR TOWARDS WISCONSIN BORDER) ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
AREA BEING BETWEEN WAVES AND AS A RESULT A LITTLE DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR IN THE AREA. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER WAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS
DEPENDING ON WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. AFTER THAT POINT WAVES BECOME
SUBTLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE DIURNAL
SLIGHT CHANCES TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THAT PERIOD. WILL
SHOW BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HELP FROM LAKE BREEZES
OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK
WEEK...THE BELOW NORMAL 850MB TEMPS AND COOLER FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BROADEN AND
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST REMAINS IN
PLACE. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK TROUGHING TO REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE CWA. THUS...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION...EVEN THOUGH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND LAKE BREEZES ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL SUNDAY WILL END UP DRY...BUT WITH THE PATTERN WE ARE
IN HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AS DRIER
AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL AND YPL RAOBS SLIDES TO THE S. THERE
MAY BE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH OCNL LOWER VSBYS THRU SUNRISE AT
IWD WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE MORE CLDS ON MON
AFTN AND POSSIBLY EVEN A -SHRA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVNG WITH
THE APRCH OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
LLVLS WL BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ENSURE VFR WX EVEN IF A -SHRA
IMPACTS ANY OF THE SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY END N TO S THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE SE CORNER OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THEN N PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY...SLOWLY
EXPANDING S. AS THE LOW MOVES/DEEPENS ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR THE WEAK TROUGH TO
WEAKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF





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