Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 201957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW. THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA





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