Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 010812
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE MAIN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE WX CONCERNS
WILL BE THE LINGERING COOL AIR FOR THE END OF MAY/START OF
JUNE...AND THE THICKNESS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A E-W ORIENTATED
ACROSS W AND CENTRAL ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SINK ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY /DEVELOPING A
LOW NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY/.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS TO BE A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT /NO LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 20KTS PLUS TO DEAL WITH/. TAKING A LOOK
AT THE FCST SOUNDINGS...WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS ALL THE
WAY UP THROUGH 700MB. PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 0.25IN AND
0.45IN...WITH THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE W THIRD OF UPPER MI. THIS
WILL LINE UP WELL WITH THE SFC HIGH/RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA.
HAVE HOISTED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER
MI...WITH FROST ADVISORIES OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND FAR E.
EXPECT THE COOLEST AIR TO SLIDE IN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F HIGHER MONDAY ON LIGHT E WINDS AND FEW CLOUDS AS
THE SFC HIGH ORIENTS ITSELF OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES AFFECTING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START AND END OF THE PERIOD...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD (SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK).

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO DEPART THE AREA. SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOWER 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS)...WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SHOULD
BE A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DEPARTS...THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO EJECT WAVES OF ENERGY NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS ENERGY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH
SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND THROUGH NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT AREA IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL TRY TO SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE NOSE OF 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
PUSHES INTO THAT AREA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
(MUCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 200-300 J/KG) AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE BELOW 6.5 C/KM...SO THINK THUNDERSTORM RISK IS LOW. THOSE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING. CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN PRECIP
COVERAGE/LOCATION/AMOUNTS AFTER THAT AS THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT PVA
AREAS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA AND LITTLE TO NO THERMAL ADVECTION. THE
ONLY REAL FORCING WILL COME FROM THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WITH LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THINK THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LOW (ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER). THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE ONE INCH...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS THERE AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FASTER WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY AND SLIDING THE RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS/CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT WILL LEAD TO A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA (NEAR NORMAL HIGHS)...WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW LIMITING THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES WITH THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZES OFF BOTH LAKE
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT
WEEK...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT AS
EXCITED ABOUT THAT IDEA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS WITH LAKE BREEZES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY EVENING...AND SLOWLY EXIT SE ACROSS LAKE MI AND LAKE
HURON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT TO
FILL AS IT SLIDES ACROSS N MN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHILE EDGING
A TROUGH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER N ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
     004>006-009>011-013-084.

  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-007-012-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF


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