Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 290647
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
247 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES ITS
TREK EASTWARD TODAY...CONTINUING THE FLOW OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CWA. SOME BANDED PRECIP HAS BEEN SPIRALING NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN CWA SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUOUS
DRY NE FLOW...SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 15F
ARE LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. IN FACT...SFC
OBS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEB CAM IMAGES INDICATE THAT NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DAY BREAK BEFORE THE
REMAINING WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGING TRACKS SE ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH SOME HIGH-BASED
CUMULUS INLAND CANT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. LESS CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHTER WINDS SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND. COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON...THESE TEMPS WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN THE OFFING ACROSS THE
CONUS/SRN CANADA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. IN GENERAL...
RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE WILL BE THE
RULE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF CANADA WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES
PEAKING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN FAVOR TROFFING OVER ERN
CANADA AND AT TIMES INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS TROFFING WILL REACH
PEAK AMPLITUDE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...IT APPEARS
ENERGY APPROACHING THE W COAST WILL SPLIT...SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT
OF A CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES TROF ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE UPPER LAKES UNLESS THE ERN TROF
RELAXES SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MEAN ROCKIES
TROF TO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NE TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. THUS...THERE IS LITTLE PCPN IN THE FCST FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ONE SHORTWAVE DROPPING THRU NRN ONTARIO OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME -SHRA...BUT WITH TRACK OF WAVE
JUST NE OF UPPER MI...PCPN IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS FAR
S...ESPECIALLY WITH INSTABILITY LACKING. WOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY
IF WE WERE MUCH FARTHER INTO THE WARM SEASON. DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN
CANADA RIDGE WHICH REACHES PEAK AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE FORCED TO DROP FARTHER S INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WHICH SHOULD OCCUR
TUE NIGHT WARRANTS LOW CHC POPS. AT THIS POINT...THAT`S THE ONLY CHC
OF RAIN FROM SAT THRU THU.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN ON MOST DAYS WILL SUPPORT RATHER LARGE
TEMP RANGES FROM NIGHTLY MINS TO AFTN MAXES. THRU THE WEEKEND...
TEMPS AT NIGHT WILL LIKELY DROP TO OR BLO FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR
COLDER AREAS. AFTN TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F AWAY FROM THE
COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES. SOME WARMING WILL BEGIN
MON...BUT MORE SO TUE AS W TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE TUE NIGHT. HOW WARM WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. COOLER WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL FOLLOW FOR WED WITH HIGH PRES
BUILDING TOWARD NRN ONTARIO. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...RECENT NAEFS
OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO KEEP UPPER MI ON THE EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BEING FAVORED OVER WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES/NRN
PLAINS AND NORMAL TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS BEING FAVORED OVER SE CANADA.
SO...IT APPEARS TEMPS ACROSS UPPER MI WILL OVERALL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL HEADING INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

WITH THE DEVELOPING DRY SPELL AND MOSTLY COOL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE AN ISSUE
AT TIMES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. AS IT STANDS RIGHT
NOW...OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE WILL LIKELY BE THE DAY OF MOST
CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH
THAT FROPA 5 DAYS OUT...TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CHANGE SOME
IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON
BAY AND A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY/FAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS CONTINUED NE WINDS UNDER 20 KTS FOR MOST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER ENE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL FUNNEL AND
ACCENTUATE THE NE FLOW SAT WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
SHARPEST. AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. SW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KLUBER



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