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000
FXUS63 KMQT 131738
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
138 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

CLEAR AND QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING NW WINDS JUST OFF SFC
HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM CRASHING TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY EAST. ARE NOW
SEEING MORE UPR TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. STILL
HAVE A FEW HOURS TO SET A RECORD LOW AT OUR OFFICE. CURRENT RECORD
FOR TODAY IS 25 SET IN 1966.

UPPER TROUGH CENTER OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC LIFTS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
BY TONIGHT WHILE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MICHIGAN SLIDES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. NET RESULT ARE RISING
HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES TO LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES TO NORTHERN PLAINS. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE
LOWERING HUMIDITY AS SUNNY SKIES RESULT IN DEEP MIXING TO H85-H8 BY
EARLY AFTN. POCKET OF SUB ZERO H85 DWPNTS OVERHEAD IN AFTN SHOULD
RESULT IN SFC DWPNTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND MAYBE BRIEFLY
AS LOW AS SINGLE DIGITS AS OCCURRED ON SUNDAY IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
DRY AIR WITH TEMPS AS WARM AS UPPER 50S INLAND FROM GREAT LAKES
RESULTS IN HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15-25 PCT AND COULD LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN FACTOR TO MITIGATE THIS LIKELY WILL BE LIGHTER
WINDS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR EAST
UPR MICHIGAN AS NW WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AS GRADIENT WIND IS
ENAHANCED BY LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE. LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE ALSO
MAY RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AS WELL. SETUP
IS MARGINAL BUT WORTH WATCHING. DUE TO CHILLY AND DAMP CONDITIONS
THAT LASTED INTO LATE SUNDAY EVENING FOR FAR EAST...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IN PLAINS RESULTS IN H85-H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION TONIGHT
ACROSS CWA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTENING OCCURRING FROM MID-LEVELS DOWN INTO LOW-LEVELS LATER AT
NIGHT. DECENT LIFT OCCURRING H7-H6 BUT THERE IS LINGERING DRY AIR
BLO H85...LEFTOVER FROM VERY DRY CONDITIONS OF THIS AFTN. FOR TIMING
OF ANY SHOWERS FOLLOWED RIBBON OF H7-H6 LIFT AND MOISTURE H8-H7 BUT
LEARY OF GOING MUCH BEYOND LOW CHANCE POPS WITH BLYR DWPNT
DEPRESSIONS REMAINING AROUND 15F THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
DOES APPEAR THERE EVENTUALLY WILL BE BETTER SUB H7 MOISTENING OVER
EASTERN CWA AFT 06Z...SO DID GO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR THOSE
AREAS. SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE CHILLY MORNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CONVECTION
POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEDNESDAY...

THE OVERALL 500MB PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM CONSISTS OF A 500MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM MANITOBA ON TUESDAY INTO QUEBEC BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY IS CONTROLLED PRIMARILY BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND A
TROUGH/DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD SUNDAY-MONDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEALS WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY IN THE
EVENING/AROUND THE 00Z TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP US IN AN AREA OF
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. PWATS INCREASE TO ABOUT 130-180 PERCENT
OF NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. MUCAPE VALUES REACH AS HIGH AS
1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS UPPER MI WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
COLD FRONT SNEAKS IN AROUND 3Z IN THE FAR WEST...AND MOVES EASTWARD
QUICKLY AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. ANY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST...LIMITED BY CAPPING...AND WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA BETWEEN 21Z-03Z IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.
THIS AREA HOLDS AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
REGION/-10C TO -30C FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND 00Z. ADDITIONALLY...0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM IS AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS
COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LARGER HAIL...THOUGH FREEZING
LEVELS ARE AROUND 12.5KFT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD EXPECT
DRY AIR TO QUICKLY FILTER IN...BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION/STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST. OVERALL...THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE BEST AREAS OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND TAILORED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE THINKING THAT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND OF COURSE
LIGHTNING...ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT/DRY SLOT OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...EXPECTING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS/LOW RH FOR WEDNESDAY. SKIES
CLEARING OUT EARLY AT LEAST FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE RISE WILL BRING AN END TO PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST. MIXING TO 800-850MB--WHERE TEMPS ARE AROUND
8C-10C--YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. TEMPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER. ADDITIONALLY...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING TO THE SURFACE
YIELD GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS USING THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS. THE NAM
INDICATES WINDS COULD GUST HIGHER...AS ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...BUT HAVE KEPT VALUES CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW. WITH
GUSTY WINDS/TEMPS IN THE 70S/AND LOWER RH VALUES THERE ARE CONCERNS
FOR FIRE DANGER...THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH QPF IS
OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY...KEEPING
WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY....MODELS ARE FAIRLY
INCONSISTENT HANDLING A SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE GEM/GFS BRING THE
PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY OVER UPPER MI. WILL STICK WITH CONSENSUS POPS
FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS BUT THEY SHOULDN/T AFFECT VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE
5KFT PLUS BASES AND GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN. HAVE THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE OF THEM OCCURRING NEAR KSAW...BUT MENTIONED THEM FOR ALL
THREE SITES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND THERE
ARE SOME HINTS AT PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEST. BUT WITH
LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED...EXISTING DRY LOW LEVELS AND
STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION. TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD
BE QUIET...WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE. FINALLY...WILL KEEP MENTION OF LLWS IN FOR
KIWD/KSAW THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS TODAY AS RIDGE IS OVERHEAD. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SE TO 25 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON WED. A
WARM FRONT SLIDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
WESTERLY TO 30 KTS ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLA