Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 041919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS


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