Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 182340
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
640 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NAMERICA...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE CONTINENT AND A DEEP TROF EXTENDING S DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE TROF SLOWLY SHIFTING E...SFC
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING...AND THUS LES IS SHIFTING AS
WELL. LES IS NOW CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS NORTHWARD
AND ROUGHLY EAST OF A MUNISING-GERMFASK LINE. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS
AT KINL/CWPL STILL SHOWED MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 800MB...SO
LES INTENSITY REMAINS MDT/HVY IN THE MAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A NICE INTERSECTION OF BEST
UPWARD MOTION CENTERED IN THE DGZ.

SHORT TERM FCST CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE CONDITIONS IN THE HEART OF
WINTER. WITH ONE LAKE EFFECT EVENT CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN...NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT TO HVY LES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALREADY ON WED.

TONIGHT...PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DROPPING SSE THRU
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA (SECOND STRONGER THAN THE LEAD). AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TONIGHT...REACHING SW BY 12Z
WED. SO...EXPECT LAKE SUPERIOR LES TO SHIFT COMPLETELY OFFSHORE OF
UPPER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST THRU 12Z...WINDS WON`T HAVE
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO BRING ANY LES CONCERNS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING LES WHERE BACKING
WINDS INTERSECT WITH WINDS THAT STAY MORE VEERED LONGER OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE LAKE. AS A RESULT...THE LAST SNOW BAND
LIFTING N ACROSS WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT AND THE LAST SHIFTING E ACROSS
THE ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE FAIRLY HVY. OVER THE W...THIS
BAND MIGHT PROVIDE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW AS FETCH ACROSS THE WATER INCREASES AS THE ORIENTATION
OF THE BAND BECOMES W-E THEN WSW-ENE UNDER BACKING WINDS. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY OVER THE NE FCST AREA BEFORE LES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHIFT N...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD
OF PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...THAT`S NOT CERTAIN GIVEN THE
LARGE MASS OF STRATOCU TO THE W. WITH MUCH OF THOSE CLOUDS PRESENT
BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY...NOT ALL OF THOSE CLOUDS WERE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...SO THEY MAY BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...
DIDN`T GO TOO LOW WITH MINS. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST
BELOW 0F. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FORCING SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...LOW-LEVELS ARE
SLOW TO MOISTEN. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SCHC POPS ALONG THE WI
BORDER AND LOW CHC POPS OVER THE W TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT.

ON WED....MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED LOW PRES TROF WILL ALSO SWING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE WARMER WATERS. AHEAD
OF THE DEEPENING SFC TROF...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK...
BRINGING CONCERNS FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SPREADING N AND W OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. OF THE HIGH RES MODELS...
THE NAM/GEM ARE A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALLOW WINDS TO BACK ENOUGH TO
BRING HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE FAR ERN FCST AREA IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTN. THE NCEP ARW AND NMM ARE FASTER AND NEVER REALLY QUITE BACK
THE WINDS SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING SNOW FAR ENOUGH W. OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM/GEM WITH THE IDEA OF FALLING PRES ALONG TROF HELPING
TO BACK WINDS/SLOW TROF DOWN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
COLD AIR ALREADY OVER THE AREA THAT WILL ENHANCE LATENT/SENSIBLE
HEATING OVER THE LAKES. FOR NOW...PAINTED AS MUCH AS 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW IN FAR SE SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND SE LUCE COUNTY BY 00Z THU.
COULD BE QUITE A BIT MORE IF WINDS BACK ENOUGH AND THEN DON`T SHIFT
FOR SEVERAL HRS. TO THE W...EXPECT HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG SFC TROF AXIS AS IT SWINGS ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT HVY
SNOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE IN THE AFTN...PROVIDING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME -SN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE HOISTED ONCE AGAIN
IN THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. MAY GET CLOSE TO THE 24 HOUR /12IN OR
MORE/ WARNING CRITERIA IF BANDED PRECIP STAYS OVER E ALGER AND N
PORTIONS OF LUCE COUNTY. WILL NOT HOIST ANY NEW HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...TO LIMIT CONFUSION WITH THE ONGOING ADVISORIES OVER THE E
HALF OF UPPER MI.

PERSISTENT NW FLOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WILL KEEP
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY LES GOING...AS NOTED ABOVE...BEHIND THE
EXITING SFC LOW OVER N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY. THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE S ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH THE SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE N PLAINS THROUGH
THE GULF COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE PARENT HIGH
EXITS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES.

AT THAT POINT WE WILL BRIEFLY SAY GOODBYE TO OUR COLD WINTER
WEATHER. STRONG WAA WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE W /FROM A SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA...AND ANOTHER ONE
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE S PLAINS/. LOOK FOR SFC TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
30S SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. THE INITIAL LOW OVER MANITOBA
WILL SKIRT ACROSS ONTARIO INTO S HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...WITH THE SFC
RIDGE ERODING ACROSS UPPER MI.

FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE /OR MORE
LIKELY FREEZING RAIN IF THE HIGHER QPF LIKE THAT FROM THE 18/12Z
ECMWF PAN OUT. THE GFS IS LESS ROBUST...SO WILL ONLY ADD THE MENTION
FOR NOW AND WAIT UNTIL FCST SOLUTIONS COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS
BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING MORE THAN JUST LIGHT PRECIP /FREEZING DRIZZLE/.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE INTERACTION/PHASING OF
THE S STREAM LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS SUNDAY...AND AN
ADDITIONAL LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE ND/CANADA BORDER SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR THE S LOW TO PUSH ACROSS LAKE MI/ILLINOIS BY 00Z
MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS E UPPER MI/W LAKE HURON BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS COMING FROM...RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. HOW MUCH OF THAT FALLS AS FREEZING RAIN/OVER
OUR SNOW PACK IS IN QUESTION. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. LES TO END AT KCMX WITH THIS WIND SHIFT AS WEAK BAND
MOVES OFF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA. WHILE KSAW HAS TEMPORARILY BROKEN OUT IN TO VFR CONDITIONS...
CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE BACK IN BY MIDNIGHT THERE. KIWD WILL ALSO SEE
A FEW PERIODS OF VFR...BUT CIGS WILL MAINLY BE MVFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT THERE. SNOW RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM WITH VSBYS FALLING LATE IN THE FORECAST AS LES DEVELOPS
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE BRIEF RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED
BY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THAT WILL DEEPEN WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS N AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. OUR INITIAL GUSTS NEARING 20-30KTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH W-NW GALE FORCE GUSTS NEARING 35KTS. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT THE LOW TO EXIT ACROSS S QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT A VERY DEEP LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING TO
PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
     007-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LSZ266.

  GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LSZ264.

  GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF





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