Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 310748
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN HAS TOTALLY CLEARED OUT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST
THAT THE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST HALF WILL DECOUPLE AND GO
LIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 0.25 INCH COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...SEE NO REASON WHY MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT DROP INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC
DWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S ATTM. IN FACT...HAVE OPTED TO ALSO PLACE
MARQUETTE...BARAGA AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN THE FREEZE WARNING
MAINLY DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND FROM THE LAKE /CHAMPION...MICHIGAMME...THREE LAKES...HERMAN/
WILL ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF TIME WITH TEMPS BELOW 30. THOSE WHO HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANTS ARE ADVISED TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE COLD IF
POSSIBLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI...AS COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE FROM S MANITOBA AND FAR W ONTARIO
BUILDS A STRONGER RIDGE INTO W UPPER MI. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE E HALF MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 4-8KTS.
OVER THE W...NEAR CALM WINDS AND THE PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND
0.25IN WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL BELOW 32F. A FEW OF THE
TYPICALLY COOLER FIRE WX RAWS MAY ALSO FALL BELOW 32F OVER THE
E...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

FOR SUNDAY...NE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LAKE MI LAKE BREEZE WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE IN RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE. THIS SHOULD KEEP ISQ TO ESC AND
MNM IN THE 50S. ALONG N CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S ARE MORE LIKELY...WITH 60S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ALONG THE WI
BORDER. WILL LIKELY HAVE CLOUDS /ABOVE 600MB/ ROLL IN FROM THE NW
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARING SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SW ONTARIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY MORNING...THE HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED IN QUEBEC...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS STATES. DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH
THIS HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
MODERATING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD PUT HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT ONE FINAL NIGHT OF FROST
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WHERE WINDS WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT IT WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THAT LOW AND
A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY...THAT AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. SINCE THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STORM MOTION VECTORS INDICATING NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT...WILL TRIM BACK POPS TO JUST THE FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA. THAT IDEA (TRIMMING BACK POPS) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY (AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS)...AS THE NEXT PRECIP OPPORTUNITY LOOKS
TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER THAN EXPECTED. WITH THE 00Z RUN...THE ECMWF
HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA (AND LEAD TO A WRAPPED UP LOW).
NOW WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF ON BOARD WITH A WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THAT PERIOD (EVEN WITH PWAT VALUES
OVER 1.3"). THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPING THE BEST
INSTABILITY FOCUSED IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN DIMINISH
HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA (ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND QUIET AVIATION WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS LESS
THAN 25KTS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR TO
EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY
TUESDAY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS MN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH THAT WILL EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-006-012-013.

  FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
     004-005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRD
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...KF



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