Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMQT 241941
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
241 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

DRIZZLE HAS BEEN THE MAIN WEATHER TYPE EARLY THIS MORNING AT NWS MQT
AS NEAR SFC TEMPERATURES HOVER BETWEEN 30 AND 36F...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING.

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE COLD FRONT SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR /EXTENDING FROM THE LOW JUST E OF JAMES BAY/ TO SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF IMPACTS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE DAYTIME ARRIVAL OF COOLER
AIR...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES /SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS N BY
00Z SUNDAY/. THE SECOND...AND RELATED IMPACT WILL BE THE CHANGE OVER
FROM DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS W AND CENTRAL
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. JUST LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO COME BY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME EHANCMENT WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT A A COUPLE OF PESKY SHORTWAVES SWINGING IN. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 3KFT UNDER A DEEPENING
INVERSION AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE EXITING COLD FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SE MOVING LOW SHIFTING
FROM ND TO S MN THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH S TO HAVE
LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WX.

LOOK FOR THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH TO PUSH ACROSS THE W HALF OF ONTARIO
SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO /COLDEST E WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING
GIVEN THE LESS FAVORABLE NE WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO FETCH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR/. ELSEWHERE...A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD LINGER AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN IL 00Z MON WITH A BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS BY 00Z WED WHILE A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE
SAME THING. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA ON MONDAY WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT DID WARM UP
THINGS A BIT FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AS WINDS GO TO THE SW.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST 12Z WED WITH COLD AIR POISED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THU WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. THE COLD AIR REALLY MOVES IN ON FRI WITH A DEEP 500
MB TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z FRI. MORE TROUGHING
THEN MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH A SFC TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL GO BELOW NORMAL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

LOW LEVER MOISTURE WILL BE REINFORCED BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
ALREADY PASSED KCMX AND KSAW. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT AT ALL
SITES...WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT LOW CONDITIONS INTO SUN MORNING AT
KSAW DUE TO UPSLOPE NE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A LOW OVER N QUEBEC WILL DRIFT E TODAY AND DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING N
WINDS WITH GUSTS NEARING 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING NE WINDS TO FUNNEL OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 25-30KT GUSTS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA TO SHIFT INTO NW ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SW QUEBEC ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW DIVING SE
FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING WILL PUSH INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN WEST CENTRAL CANADA ON
SUNDAY WILL CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG MONDAY MORNING...AND WISCONSIN ON
MONDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR A HIGH OVER THE N PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO
SHIFT TO OH RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE TO THE S OF A
TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO. ANOTHER LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE N PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.