Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 221946
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
346 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS COVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
AS THE AREA IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (AXIS JUST TO THE WEST OF US AND
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO). AT THE
SURFACE...A 1030MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES
BAY...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND INTO ILLINOIS. A LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES IS COVERING
MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING TOOK HOLD EARLY THIS EVENING AND
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP. AT 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE 19 AT DOE LAKE TO 37 AT IRONWOOD WHERE THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED. HAVE SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AT KIMT THIS
MORNING AND 11-3.9 SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST BARAGA AND NORTHERN IRON
COUNTIES. WITH A SMALL TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AT MOST CENTRAL/EASTERN
U.P. SITES...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE VERY SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS IT BECOMES
PINCHED BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND AN APPROACHING LOW AND COLD FRONT IN THE CANADIAN PRARIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE THE 900MB
INVERSION SEEN ON THE 00Z KAPX/KGRB/KINL SOUNDINGS...EXPECT A SUNNY
DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS
WHERE/IF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN...BUT THINK COVERAGE/POTENTIAL IS LOW. THAT 900MB
INVERSION WILL KEEP MIXING FROM REACHING THE MUCH WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES (AROUND 7C)...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST). DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO WINDS BECOMING A LITTLE GUSTY OVER WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THEM TO PEAK OUT AROUND 20MPH.

FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW (IN
CANADA) AND COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS WILL START TO INFLUENCE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT...AS THE ABUNDANT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRIES TO OVERCOME THE EXISTING DRY AIR UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN MINNESOTA AND OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS IS TIED TO WEAK 700-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SPREADING EAST
INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO IRON MOUNTAIN. THERE ARE
SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES AROUND THE 700MB WHICH COULD GIVE A LITTLE
BIT OF A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND GENERALLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. IF
A LOCATION WOULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS...THINK IT WOULD BE IN THE
ONTONAGON...SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY AREA. DUE TO
THE SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN AND THE DEPARTING
DRY AIR...EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. TO STAY
CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SINCE THE HIGH HAS SHIFTED
EAST...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RETURN FLOW WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING. THAT SAID...WILL STILL SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE IN THAT AREA.
OVER THE WEST...THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND MIXING FROM THE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF THE SATELLITE INGEST INTO THE
NUMERICAL MODELS /WITH NESDIS SATELLITE COMMS ISSUES CAUSING MISSING
OR OLD IMAGES ON WEB PAGES/...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
MAY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
SINCE THE 22/00Z RUNS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO DETAILS ON WHEN
THE ISSUE WILL BE FIXED.

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE E PROGRESSION OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. A SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER E
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT
S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-11C...HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL CROSS MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...AND N-CENTRAL ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL NEAR THE NE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

AS THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FROM THE N PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE LOW EXITS INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING WNW WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 25-35MPH /STRONGEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. INCREASED WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FCST FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SFC. FCST MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES AT 12Z MONDAY TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.
WHETHER OR NOT A SFC TROUGH LINGERS BEHIND THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY IS
STILL IN QUESTION...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST STILL FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON. NEXT WEDNESDAY IS A COMPLETE TOSS UP...WITH
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 12Z RUNS RANGING FROM -5C TO 3C. WILL ADD A
SMALL MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN N-NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...AS A SECONDARY
LOW WRAPS NEARS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY AT KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING CONTINUES.

THEN FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TOWARDS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THAT AREA TONIGHT. KIWD SHOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN...BUT KCMX COULD ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA. CEILINGS
FOR KIWD/KCMX SHOULD STAY AT VFR AND POTENTIALLY FALL TO MVFR TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND THEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE THU MORNING. INCREASING SRLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT MAY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS
BACK INTO KSAW. HOWEVER..CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR CIGS OR LOWER. SO...MENTIONED CIGS JUST ABOVE IFR.
FINALLY...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEPARTS THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY BELOW 20KTS. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY
AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF






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