Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 290904
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
504 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PACE OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL PLAYS A BIG PART IN UNCERTAINTY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS NOW TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
BATCH OF MORNING RAIN SHOWERS NOW OVER SW WI AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO SCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE UP TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS
POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 20-30KTS...AND ALMOST ALL OF THAT WILL
BE IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT
LAKE BREEZE/BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY HELP TO LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT THAT RISK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF MORNING PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND OTHER
VERY SHORT TERM DETAILS.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE
TROUGH/FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE
A FEW REASONS FOR THIS ASIDE FROM AMPLE MOISTURE. FIRST...THE FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY SNOW MOVING...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPPER MI...AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPORARILY SLOW IT DOWN.
SECOND...THE SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT WILL HELP BOOST FORCING.
THIRD...MEAN FLOW/STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION. MODELS CURRENTLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN AREA OF GREATEST PRECIP FROM IRONWOOD
TO MARQUETTE...WITH 1-2 INCHES (OR MORE) SHOWN IN THIS AREA.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE...WHEN COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT RECENT
RAINFALL...WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RISES ON AREA RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA BY 12Z MON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NW AHEAD OF A 1033MB HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NRN STREAM RIDGING OVER FAR WRN CANADA/ALASKA VCNTY THAT HAS BEEN A
PROMINENT FEATURE FOR MANY WEEKS...AND REALLY MUCH OF THIS YEAR...
WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...A TROF WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NW CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THESE UPCOMING CHANGES WILL LEAD TO A
WARMER PATTERN (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO
THAT...ONE LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DIVE S INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IS STILL
VERY STRONG IN NW CANADA/ALASKA (500MB HEIGHTS AT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVG). WITH THE COLD AIR MASS...THERE
WILL BE TWO NIGHTS WITH FROST LIKELY (SAT NIGHT/SUN NIGHT). AS FOR
PCPN...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN/EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA...SEVERAL DRY DAYS WILL FOLLOW THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL. DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS THE NW CONUS TROF SENDS ENERGY
DOWNSTREAM.

BEGINNING SAT...AT 12Z THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLICING THRU LWR MI
AND HEADING SE WHILE THE CENTER OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WEAK SFC WAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK COULD RESULT IN SOME -RA LINGERING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL
(AROUND KMNM) IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CAA/BLUSTERY WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W AND N WITH FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO HOVER AT OR BLO 0C OVER WRN
AND NCNTRL UPPER MI THRU THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE N TO THE MID/UPPER 50S S. AT LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE A LONG FETCH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z...FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THINNING OUT FROM NW TO SE THRU THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE NIGHT...NOT QUITE A PERFECT
LOCATION FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE FOR WINDS TO FULLY DECOUPLE GIVEN LATE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH
AT THAT POSITION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING
INTO NRN ONTARIO DURING THE NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...WON`T CONSIDER THIS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
MIN TEMPS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL AID RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WITH MINS AS LOW AS THE
MID/UPPER 20S IN THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS AND MID/UPPER
30S LAKESIDE. SHOULD BE COLDEST INTERIOR W HALF. FROST/FREEZE IS
LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR.

WHILE THE CENTER OF THE PARENT SFC HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT E ON SUN...
ANOTHER HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LAKE
BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY CONTINUE TO
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S N TO THE LWR 60S SCNTRL/INTERIOR W. MANY LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE 40S.

ON SUN NIGHT...GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO UNDER A QUARTER
INCH OVER THE E HALF WITH THE NAM DOWN TO ALMOST ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE CNTRL...BOTH MODELS LOWER THAN SAT NIGHT. WITH SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING BACK INTO UPPER MI...SUN NIGHT COULD END UP AS COLD AS
SAT NIGHT IN MANY AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS.
OVERALL...MIN TEMP RANGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT NIGHT...BUT
COLDEST INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. WILL SEE ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE IN THE
INTERIOR.

SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MESO HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY MON.
SO...LAKE BREEZES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...THOUGH THE LAKE BREEZE
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS ON SUN. IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. 50S EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKES.

TUE THRU THU...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ENSURE ONE MORE DRY DAY ON TUE BEFORE SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROF BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SHRA/TSRA AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF PREVIOUS AND LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS
UTILIZED. THIS RESULTS IN SCHC TO CHC POPS WED INCREASING SLIGHTLY
FOR THU. TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THU WITH INCREASING
DWPTS GIVING A SUMMER FEEL TO THE WARMTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOULD BE A QUIET OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. MAY BE SOME LLWS AT THE SITES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS IN THE FCST INTO FRI MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTN/FRI
EVENING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS TURN NORTH OFF THE LAKE
BRINGING IN THE MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER...DRY AIR QUICKLY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FRI NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE
THEY MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TITUS


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