Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 302001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
401 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

Showers and thunderstorms extend along a cold front over the
southeastern CWA this afternoon, with some potential for a couple
stronger storms but no severe weather expected. Had a couple
possibly severe storms earlier along lake breeze convergence.
Additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are under
the upper trough over western Lake Superior. All showers and
thunderstorms will exit the eastern CWA by around 9Z tonight, if not

Behind the system, expect breezy northwest winds tonight into
Friday, with possible swim risk problems along the north central
U.P. as a result.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

Nam shows an upper level trough over the lower Great Lakes 00z Sat
which moves into New England on Sat and moves into the Canadian
Maritimes on Sun. Looks dry and quiet into Sun and did not make too
many changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF had a 500 mb trough over the western
U.S. 12z Mon with a broad ridge over the plains and a trough over
the ern U.S. Upper pattern does not change much 12z Tue through 12z
Thu with manual progs showing a cold front slowly sinking southward
into the upper Great Lakes Wed and Thu. Temperatures look to be
slightly above normal for this forecast period and with the front in
the area, will keep in some slight chance pops in for most of the
cwa through Wed and then chance pops Wed night and Thu.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 401 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

A cold front crossing Upper Michigan will bring SHRA and possibly
some thunderstorms to all sites from west to east today. The best
chance for TSRA among the sites will be mid-afternoon at KSAW.
Otherwise, expect ceilings to fall to at least the MVFR range with
the showers. Favorable upslope winds will then allow both KCMX and
KSAW to lower to IFR ceilings for a period behind the showers before
drier air brings improving conditions tonight.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 424 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

A cold front crossing Lake Superior late today will allow west winds
to quickly veer northwest to north at 15 to 25 knots this afternoon,
especially across the east half. The stronger winds will continue
well into Friday before persistent high pressure brings winds under
15 knots late Friday through the 4th of July.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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