Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 220744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS COVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
AS THE AREA IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (AXIS JUST TO THE WEST OF US AND
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO). AT THE
SURFACE...A 1030MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES
BAY...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND INTO ILLINOIS. A LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES IS COVERING
MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING TOOK HOLD EARLY THIS EVENING AND
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP. AT 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE 19 AT DOE LAKE TO 37 AT IRONWOOD WHERE THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED. HAVE SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AT KIMT THIS
MORNING AND 11-3.9 SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST BARAGA AND NORTHERN IRON
COUNTIES. WITH A SMALL TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AT MOST CENTRAL/EASTERN
U.P. SITES...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE VERY SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS IT BECOMES
PINCHED BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND AN APPROACHING LOW AND COLD FRONT IN THE CANADIAN PRARIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE THE 900MB
INVERSION SEEN ON THE 00Z KAPX/KGRB/KINL SOUNDINGS...EXPECT A SUNNY
DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS
WHERE/IF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN...BUT THINK COVERAGE/POTENTIAL IS LOW. THAT 900MB
INVERSION WILL KEEP MIXING FROM REACHING THE MUCH WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES (AROUND 7C)...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST). DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO WINDS BECOMING A LITTLE GUSTY OVER WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THEM TO PEAK OUT AROUND 20MPH.

FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW (IN
CANADA) AND COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS WILL START TO INFLUENCE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT...AS THE ABUNDANT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRIES TO OVERCOME THE EXISTING DRY AIR UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN MINNESOTA AND OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS IS TIED TO WEAK 700-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SPREADING EAST
INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO IRON MOUNTAIN. THERE ARE
SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES AROUND THE 700MB WHICH COULD GIVE A LITTLE
BIT OF A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND GENERALLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. IF
A LOCATION WOULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS...THINK IT WOULD BE IN THE
ONTONAGON...SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY AREA. DUE TO
THE SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN AND THE DEPARTING
DRY AIR...EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. TO STAY
CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SINCE THE HIGH HAS SHIFTED
EAST...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RETURN FLOW WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING. THAT SAID...WILL STILL SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE IN THAT AREA.
OVER THE WEST...THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND MIXING FROM THE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM SCNTRL CANADA TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY MORNING SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SEEMS THERE WILL BE TWO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE TROUGH...WHICH MAY IMPACT EXTENT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR RAIN
OVER THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON EXTENT OF SEPARATION...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE OTHER
MOVING FROM MINNESOTA TO ILLINOIS WHILE THE NAM AND GEM-NH KEEP WAVES
TOGETHER LONGER BEFORE SEPARATING ON THURSDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY THE
GFS APPEARS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF THAN THE NAM/GEM IDEA. NARROW RIBBON
OF H85-H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME WEAK H9-H7 ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHOULD FORCE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING OVER WESTERN CWA
AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...MOVING INTO THE CNTRL THURSDAY AFTN
AND TO THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING...THOUGH WAVE SPLITTING AT
THAT POINT MAY RESTRICT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS. PREFER
THE SREF IDEA SHOWING MOST QPF OVER THE WEST THEN DIMINISHING AS
SHOWERS HEAD EAST.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A DRY AND PRETTY MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY
AS UPPER LAKES WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CNTRL CANADA. MAIN QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS HOW HIGH WILL MIXING BE.
GIVEN THERE WILL BE ONLY LIMITED MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS ARE FM
THE SW...MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD PUSH TO 925-900MB. RESULT WILL BE
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S WITH EVEN SOME 60S OVER WESTERN CWA.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THOUGH THERE WILL BE LARGER SCALE LIFT
OVER LK SUPERIOR REGION...INCLUDING NORTH AND EAST CWA...MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING. A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME TRANISIENT SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR OVER NORTHERN CWA...BUT WILL KEEP MOST POPS OVR EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND AWAY FM LAND CWA. MILD NIGHT WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
40S AHEAD OF THE LOW.

WINDY ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY EVEN MORE THAN THE FORECAST IS SHOWING
ATTM...THOUGH DID INCREASE WINDS SOME OVER WHAT MODEL CONSENSUS
GENERATED. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO H85-H8 WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
STRATOCU CLOUDS AS THERE IS COOL ADEVECTION H9-H8 THROUGH THE DAY.
BULK OF THICKER CLOUDS MAY REMAIN OVER ONTARIO CLOSER TO SFC LOW.
WINDS IN MIXED LAYER OVER 35 KTS AMD THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BTWN THE ONTARIO LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...EXPECT WNW WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND 25-30 MPH FOR AT LEAST EAST HALF OF CWA. TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE 50S MOST AREAS AND COULD REACH 60 DEGREES OVER
THE SCNTRL THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE AND LESS CLOUDS. INTO SUNDAY...NOT AS
WINDY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES. RETURN S-SE FLOW IN THE AFTN
COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S...SO LOOKING AT
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BEST SHOT OF A
60 DEGREE READING ON SUNDAY WOULD BE OVER THE FAR WEST CWA.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY AS
TROUGHING ALOFT EXPANDS FM THE WESTERN CONUS ACROSS THE PLAINS. MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN VCNTY OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. WARM
AIR AND MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCH
OFF SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT THIS MAY MOSTLY BE EAST OF AREA BY
THEN. GFS TRYING TO SHOW SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WAVE WRAPPING UP
OVER THE AERA ON TUESDAY BUT COMPARED TO ECMWF AND EXTRAPOLATION FM
GEM-NH IT SEEMS OVERDONE AND TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THIS WAVE.
STAYING ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH END OF LONG TERM...BUT AS
THE LARGER TROUGH MOVES EAST MID-LATE NEXT WEEK IT PROBABLY WILL
TURN COOLER FOR A TIME. MODELS NOT QUITE LINKED UP ON THE TIMING OF
THE COOL DOWN JUST YET THOUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WITH HI PRES DOMINATING TODAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION WL BE AT SAW EARLY THIS MRNG...
WHEN LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS FALLING THRU CROSSOVER DEWPT YDAY AFTN WL
ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND DOWNSLOPE S WIND AT
IWD AND CMX WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT THOSE SPOTS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL BE AN INCRS IN MID CLDS THIS EVNG...AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR
SOME -SHRA AT IWD...IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF IN MN...
LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR WL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU THE
EVNG EVEN IF SOME -SHRA IMPACT IWD. AN INCRSG S WIND ALOFT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE -SHRA CHANCES MAY BRING SOME MARGINAL LLWS TO
IWD LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEPARTS THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY BELOW 20KTS. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY
AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF





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