Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 151904
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
304 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED
UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS. DPVA AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
WAS SUPPORTING A MASS OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCT SHRA OVER THE SRN
HALF OF MN AND CENTRAL WI. THE NRN EDGE OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD
WAS REACHING INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF UPPER MI WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WAS GENERALLY CLOUD FREE EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND ON NRN EDGE OF FORCING FROM DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE PASSING
SOUTH. SBCAPE OF 50-100 J/KG ALONG WITH SFC-7H LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C
OR HIGHER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA WILL BE
CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE
COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 50 PCT OF NORMAL SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF
FROST AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WI BORDER. HAVE INCLUDED GOGEBIC...ONTONAGON...IRON...BARAGA...SRN
HOUGHTON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN A FROST ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RIGHT
ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THAT CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN (DUE TO
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND LOW QUICKLY PEELING EAST-NORTHEAST). WITH THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
NORTH HALF OF THE CWA (MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR)...WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA AND SHOW DECREASING POPS TO THE SOUTH.
THAT SIMILAR IDEA IS EXPECTED FOR QPF...WITH 0.1-0.2 INCH OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TAPERING TO A TRACE-0.1 INCH OVER THE U.P.

A SECOND UPPER TROUGH (WITH THE MAIN ENERGY IN ONTARIO) WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE U.P. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND USHER IN STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SKY BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN
BORDER...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CLOUDS LINGERING AS A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP UNDER LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN 925-850MB. THUS...THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...CLOSER TO THE HIGH AND
UNDERNEATH THE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (AROUND 30 PERCENT
OF NORMAL).

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW THAT BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME TO TAKE SHAPE AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ZONAL...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS OF WEAK SHORTWAVES SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THEM INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BRING THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...DON/T EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ODILE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PHASING OF THOSE TWO FEATURES
LEAVES VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SATURDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW LOW 70S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN
THE REST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO WILL
FOLLOW THE WARMER IDEA AND DIMINISH POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT CMX THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS





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