Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 191711

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1211 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.


Strong high pressure building behind a cold front over the Gulf
of Mexico will support frequent wind gusts to gale force over a
small area N of 26N W of 94W into the early afternoon. Sustained
winds to gale force are expected S of 25N behind the front until
mid Monday morning. Wave heights of 8 to 13 ft are expected
associated with these winds. See the latest high seas forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N20W to 08N40W to the South American coast near 07N59W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 10W and



A cold front extends from 30N83W to 26N90W to 21N98W. Gale force
northerly winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft are occurring NW of the
front over a portion of the western Gulf. Please refer to the
special features section for more details. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are elsewhere NW of the front. Moderate winds are
occurring S of the front. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of
either side of the front. Over the next 24 hours the front will
move quickly across the remainder of the Gulf basin. Gale force
winds will continue S of 25N NW of the front until mid Monday
morning. Winds will decrease to below 20 kt over the remainder of
the Gulf by late Monday morning.


A 1009 mb low is centered near 14N72W. One surface trough extends
from 17N76W to the low center. A second surface trough extends
from the low to 12N75W. This system is interacting with an upper
trough to its west to support a cluster of moderate to strong
convection from 14N to 18N between 66W and 72W. The eastern
portion of this convection is also being supported by a surface
trough that extends from the Atlantic to Puerto Rico, to near
17N68W. Mainly moderate winds are occurring over the Caribbean
basin, except for light to gentle winds S of 15n between 72W and
80W. Over the next 24 hours the low will drift NE and weaken.
Convection will continue between the low and the NE Caribbean.


Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist over the
southern and western portion of the island through Monday, as low
pressure and a surface trough persist south of the region.


A cold front is exiting the coast of N Florida. Fresh to strong SW
winds and scattered showers are within 60 nm SE of the front.
Fresh to strong NW winds are NW of the front. A 1020 mb high
centered near 34N59W dominates the remainder of the western
Atlantic waters W of 65W. A cold front enters the area of
discussion near 31N38W to 27N43W where it transitions to a
stationary front that extends to 21N58W. A surface trough then
extends from 21N58W to Puerto Rico. A broad area of cloud cover
and showers are within 60 NM SE and 300 nm NW of the front E of
51W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm
of either side of the front and trough W of 51W. High pressure
centered near 39N17W dominates the remainder of the central and
eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours the cold front will sweep
SE and reach from 31N67W to the Florida Straits by mid Monday
morning. The front over the central Atlantic will begin to

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