Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 160602

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.


Hurricane Gert is centered near 34.8N 70.3W at 16/0300 UTC or
about 310 nm WNW of Bermuda moving NE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt
with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 33N-37N between 67W-71W. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
for more details.


A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1011 mb
low pressure located near 14N32W. The wave axis extends from
22N33W to the low and has been moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is
in a region of low to moderate vertical wind shear, however
intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave environment
limit convection to scattered moderate within 220 nm NW quadrant
of low pressure center. Slow development of this system is
anticipated during the next day or two, but conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation
by later in the week while the system moves WNW over the tropical

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending
from 21N55W to 10N59W, moving W at 25 kt. The wave is in a region
of moderate to strong vertical wind shear and continue to be
affected by Saharan dry air and dust, which is limiting convection
to isolated showers within 200 nm of its axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 17N78W to 09N78W, moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave is in a
region of moderate to strong vertical wind shear and dry air
subsidence, which is hindering deep convection at the time.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
14N28W to 14N43W to 10N47W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 10N48W to 10N57W. Outside of convection
associated with the tropical waves, numerous heavy showers and
isolated tstms are off the W African coast from 08N to 15N E of
21W associated with the next tropical wave that will emerge to E
Atlc waters later today. Otherwise, a 1011 mb low embedded in the
monsoon trough near 14N44W support isolated showers from 11N to
16N between 42W and 48W.



Upper level divergent flow persists over the northern Gulf coast
and interior portions of the SE CONUS between a broad upper level
low centered NW of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N91W and an upper
level anticyclone centered near 30N80W. Isolated showers are
occurring over Louisiana adjacent waters N of 26N between 89W-
93W. Similar shower activity is over the E Bay of Campeche
associated with a surface trough that is moving off the W Yucatan
Peninsula. Otherwise, the E Gulf is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 26N84W.
Gentle to moderate SE flow is W of 90W while variable light to
gentle flow is over the eastern half of the basin. The high is
expected to persist across the NE Gulf waters through Friday. A
surface trough will develop each evening across the Yucatan
peninsula shifting W into the Bay of Campeche during the overnight
hours. Locally higher winds can be expected in the vicinity of
the trough axis.


A tropical wave is moving into the W Caribbean, however it lacks
deep convection. This tropical wave will continue to propagate
westward across the remainder of the basin through Wednesday
night. Another tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles where it
is supporting isolated showers. This second wave will move into E
Caribbean waters later this morning and is forecast to support
showers across Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. The wave will
move to the central basin Thu supporting showers across
Hispaniola. Diffluent flow between an upper ridge located NE of
Jacksonville, Florida and an upper low centered N of Hispaniola
continue to support isolated showers over Haiti and the Windward
Passage. Similar activity is occurring over E Cuba adjacent
waters. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds in the south-central
waters are expected through Thursday with moderate to fresh trades


Diffluent flow between an upper ridge located NE of
Jacksonville, Florida and an upper low centered N of Hispaniola
continue to support isolated showers over Haiti and the Windward
Passage. This shower activity is forecast to continue today,
increasing overnight due to an approaching tropical wave. The
tropical wave will move over the central Caribbean Thu supporting
showers across the Island.


Isolated showers are N of 26N between 68W and 76W associated with
the convective rainbands of Hurricane Gert centered north of the
discussion area. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin generally
N of 20N is under the influence of the Azores subtropical high
which supports fair weather. For information about tropical
waves, see section above.

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