Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 262337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29N W OF A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE W ATLC TODAY. THIS GALE WARNING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES E WHERE IT WILL
MERGE WITH A FRONT CURRENTLY E OF THE STRONG FRONT. SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 5N18W TO 3N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N31W 2N44W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 8W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W ALONG 23N88W TO 23N96W. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE FRONT. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER MEXICO TO THE PLAIN STATES ADVECTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF AS SEEN ON SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF VOID OF ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE W IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVER SE OUT OF THE GULF TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL RACE SE ACROSS THE E GULF ON TUE PASSING SE OF THE
AREA ON TUE NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE MEANDERS OVER THE
W/CENTRAL AND W GULF THROUGH TUE. A SECOND RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
SETTING UP FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND
ON WED NIGHT THEN SHIFT SE TO A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO THE SW GULF ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS CUBA JUST E OF CAMAGUEY ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO
HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM
W OF THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
OVER COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND A SECOND NE TO OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NICARAGUA LATE TUE THEN STALL FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA ON
WED AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON THU. STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH
THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING W OF 70W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TUE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE TUE WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON LATE TUE THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
OVER THE W ATLC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N75W
ALONG 27N77W THEN ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 31N. A
REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N54W TO ALONG 31N64W TO 28N70W WHERE THE
FRONT IS AGAIN COLD AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO ACROSS CUBA JUST E OF CAMAGUEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 24N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH NE OF AZORES.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N43W TO 22N44W. THE REMNANT FRONT WILL MEANDER
FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT IN THE FAR W ATLC ON TUE. THIS MERGED FRONT WILL THEN
EXTEND FROM 32N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TUE THEN SLOW
FROM 32N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON WED NIGHT WASHING OUT N OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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