Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 130901
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central
Atlantic waters. Seas of 12 to 19 ft are currently N of a line
from 30N63W to 24N57W to 30N44W. The area of 12 ft seas will
sweep eastward across the waters north of 25N between 35W and 65W
through mid week, then will diminish in areal extent and shift
northeast of the discussion area through late Fri.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia and a 1021 mb high pressure northeast of the
Bahamas is supporting strong to near gale-force winds across the
south- central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of Colombia
are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 35 kt winds
near the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla during the night
time hours. Associated seas are likely around 12 ft currently.
Winds will pulse to gale force each night through Fri night.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W to 02N18W. The
ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 04S35W. Clusters of moderate to
isolated strong convection are observed S of 06N and E of 27W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail W of 90W, with light to gentle
winds E of 90W. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range W of 90W, and 1-2 ft
E of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
through the week. Gentle to moderate winds will increase to
moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of the basin through
Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to
the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early morning hours
due to local effects. A cold front may move into the NW Gulf by
the end of the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

Aside from the gale force winds, fresh to strong winds are over
the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are
elsewhere E of 80W. Gentle to moderate winds are W of 80W. Seas
are in the 8-11 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 5-7
ft elsewhere E of 80W. Seas of 2-4 ft are found W of 80W.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh
to strong winds across the south central Caribbean. Winds off
Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through Fri night.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Winds will pulse
to fresh to locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward
Passage, and S of Hispaniola mid week through the upcoming
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant
Swell in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N33W to near 20N60W. Moderate winds
are N of 26N within 60 nm east of the front. Fresh to strong winds
are N of 28N W of the front to 60W. West of the front, high
pressure is centered near 27N69W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere W of the cold front. Moderate winds prevail S of 18N.
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere E of the front. Aside from
the area of 12 ft or greater seas, seas greater than 8 ft cover
the waters N of 21N between 55W and 70W, and N of a line from
21N55W to 30N35W. Elsewhere, seas of 4-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will prevail through
the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds N of 29N and E of 65W
will diminish by Thu. Rough to very rough seas will gradually
subside from W to E through the end of the week.

$$
AL


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