Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 241154
TWDAT

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
708 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 32.2N 63.7W at 24/1200 UTC
or about 56 nm east of Bermuda moving northeast at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Heavy showers and
thunderstorms are from 31N to 34N between 62W and 65W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 29N to 36N between 60W and
67W. Please see the latest NHC Public Intermediate Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

Tropical Depression Lisa is centered near 23.8N 37.9W at 24/0900
UTC or about 912 nm west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. An area
of moderate convection has developed to the north of the system`s
center extending from 24N-27N between 33W-37W. Please see the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 15N23W to 04N23W, moving west near 10 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough depicted
by global guidance and is embedded within a surge of moisture as
seen on the Total Perceptible Water imagery. Cloudiness and
isolated showers are observed in the wave`s environment between
00N-13N. This disturbance is expected to move rapidly westward
across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days.
Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form while
the system approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the
Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.

A tropical wave is in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis
that extends from 20N53W to 11N53W, moving west near 15 kt over
the past 24 hours. This wave position coincides with a 700 mb
trough noted in global models and is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the Total Perceptible Water imagery. Scattered
moderate convection prevails along the northern portion of the
wave, mainly north of 17N between 50W-55W.

A tropical wave extends across the southern portion of the Bay of
Campeche into the EPAC with axis from 19N95W to 10N96W, moving
west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded
within an area of moisture as seen on the Total Perceptible Water
imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the wave`s
environment south of 20N between 90W-102W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 10N20W to 07N30W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 100 nm north of the Monsoon Trough between
25W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern portion of a tropical wave is moving over the
southern waters of the Bay of Campeche. Please refer to the
section above for details. An upper-level ridge anchored over
southeast Texas covers the northwest Gulf of Mexico while an
upper-level low centered over southern Georgia extends its trough
into the eastern Gulf. At the surface, a ridge axis extends across
the basin anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 29N87W. A
surface trough extends over the southeast Gulf waters into the Florida
Peninsula with isolated convection mainly south of 24N and east
of 84W. Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle easterly
flow across the basin. Expect for the surface ridge to prevail
through the next 24 hours. The tropical wave will continue moving
over the EPAC with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A low-level trough continues to enhancing convection across the
western Caribbean west of 82W affecting portions of Honduras,
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection
is observed south of 12N due to the Monsoon Trough that extends
along 09N between 76W-84W. No significant convection is observed
over the remainder of the basin at this time as a surface ridge
extends over the area anchored over the eastern Atlantic.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
area except south of 14N between 69W-73W where fresh to strong
winds prevail. Expect a similar weather pattern to continue
through the next 24 hours. A tropical wave will approach from the
east enhancing convection over the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico by the end of the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. An upper-
level low will coupled with the easterly trade winds and enhance
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

T.S Karl, T.D. Lisa, and two tropical waves are moving across the
basin. Please refer to the sections above for details. A surface
trough extends across the western Atlantic from 26N80W to 31N77W.
Scattered light to moderate convection is observed along this
boundary mainly west of 78W. A stationary 1016 mb surface high is
centered east of the trough near 28N75W. The remainder of the
basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a pair
of 1025 mb highs centered near 33N40W and 32N27W. T.S. Karl is
expected to briefly become a hurricane within the next 24 hours as
it accelerates northeastward. T.D. Lisa will continue along a
northwestward track becoming a post-tropical/remnant low within
the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/NAR


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