Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 251805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...

THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10 FEET TO 13 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 77W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO
ONCE THE EVENT BEGINS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF LIBERIA. THE
ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE
AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 7N13W...5N20W 4N35W 7N49W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 6N TO 12N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD FROM 44W EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W
FROM 6N TO 12N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W
INCLUDING INLAND/COASTAL AREAS FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST
STATES. THE COLD FRONT OF 24 HOURS AGO NOW PASSES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR
31N85W...TO 27N87W 23N91W 19N95W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR
31N85W...TO 27N87W 23N91W 19N95W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...
INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KHQI...KVQT...
KATP...AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL FLORIDA
FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...TO
19N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST OF 22N80W 18N82W 16N84W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N75W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND
32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE AREA THAT
IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THIS WIND FLOW IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 32N42W TO 23N43W
14N45W AND TO 10N49W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...IN
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM
70W EASTWARD...FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND FROM
19N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.15 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...
0.06 IN ST. THOMAS...0.05 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.02 IN TRINIDAD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N80W...
BEYOND 8N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...REMNANT RAINSHOWERS...FROM EARLIER SCATTERED
STRONG...ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 85W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN TRADE WIND
FLOW...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N75W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND
32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS
CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS EVENTUALLY BECOMES
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR REST OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TO THE WATERS THAT ARE
BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
FROM THE 23N75W IN THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO
NORTHWESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...TO 19N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
WEST OF 22N80W 18N82W 16N84W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.56 IN
FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N
BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 25N73W...TO 22N77W AT THE
COAST OF CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N75W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND
32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.  1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N59W TO 27N65W...TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
22N74W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
18N81W. THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEYOND 32N73W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N59W TO 27N65W...TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N81W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
23N43W 14N45W AND TO 10N49W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W
TO 27N30W 22N36W AND 20N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 29W AND
31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 23N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 22W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 28W AND 42W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
34W AND 48W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 6N TO 12N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W INCLUDING INLAND/COASTAL
AREAS FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO GUYANA.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N15W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 17N27W JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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