Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 291103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AT 29/0900 UTC IS NEAR 42.1N
51.7W...OR ABOUT 285 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE IN
NEWFOUNDLAND. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...OR 55
DEGREES...43 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
973 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 42N TO 44N
BETWEEN 48W AND 50W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND
36W...FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 33W AND 35W...AND FROM 14N TO 15N
BETWEEN 37W AND 38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND
48W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...ALONG 72W...THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. THE WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W...AND
REMAINING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 76W.
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ARE COVERED BY MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO EASTERN
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...REMNANT SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ACCOMPANYING
THE 72W HAITI-TO-COLOMBIA TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 18N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 75W AND 85W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W TO 9N31W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N31W TO 8N44W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS...TO
THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE
LOUISIANA-TO-GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES
ALONG 21N92W 26N90W...TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 29N83W...
ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 29N76W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 27N97.5W...FROM 26N TO 28N
BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 93W AND
94W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 28N
BETWEEN 83W AND 89W IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N68W 28N74W 28N79W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO EASTERN
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...REMNANT SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ACCOMPANYING
THE 72W HAITI-TO-COLOMBIA TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 18N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 75W AND 85W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KOPM...KCRH...KEMK...KGUL IS SHOWING 2 TO 3 MILES OF
VISIBILITY WITH HAZE...KVQT...KGHB...KATP...KMDJ...KAXO...AND
AT K9F2.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN...AND RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDER...ARE IN THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS...FROM ROCKPORT TO
THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COAST...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS IN PORT LAVACA TEXAS...A LOW CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN SARASOTA FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO EASTERN
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...REMNANT SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ACCOMPANYING
THE 72W HAITI-TO-COLOMBIA TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 18N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 75W AND 85W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N78W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N66W. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CENTER IS
REACHING THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 14N78W CARIBBEAN SEA CENTER
REACHES THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.11 IN
CURACAO...AND 0.09 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 85W/86W IN COSTA RICA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N78W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ACCOMPANYING THE 72W HAITI-TO-COLOMBIA
TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 75W AND 85W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI TO COLOMBIA ALONG 72W...
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...ALONG 72W...THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. THE WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W...AND
REMAINING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 76W.
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ARE COVERED BY MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N78W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N66W. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CENTER IS
REACHING THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 14N78W CARIBBEAN SEA CENTER
REACHES THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTIAGO.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH THAT WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...AND AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT WILL RUN
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TOWARD HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL START FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL BE ON TOP OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXTENDING A RIDGE TOWARD
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 36 TO 42
HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI TO COLOMBIA ALONG 72W...
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 31N79W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 61W AND 68W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO
29N38W AND 26N42W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N40W TO 31N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N38W 29N45W 28N53W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N24W...TO 28N33W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N55W...TO 27N70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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