Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 210559

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

A broad area of low pressure across the western North Atlc is
forecast to strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours and extend a
cold front into the discussion area near 32N53W by 22/0000 UTC
generating near gale to gale force SW winds N of 29N between 50N
and 52W. The gale force conditions are expected to move N of the
area by 23/0000 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N16W to 02N21W to the Equator near 28W. Scattered moderate
convection is S of 05N between 25W-33W.


A sharp middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor
imagery over the central CONUS with trough axis dipping southward
over the extreme western Gulf waters and NE Mexico. The troughing
supports a 1012 mb low centered along the central Louisiana coast
near 30N92W with a surface trough extending S-SW to 23N95W.
Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring N of
24N between 90W-95W largely enhanced by strong middle to upper
level diffluence. Otherwise...the eastern half of the basin is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high
centered across the Carolinas this evening. Mostly clear skies
prevail across the Florida peninsula...however middle to upper
level cloudiness and moisture is noted W of 85W as the upper
level trough approaches from the west. Looking ahead...the surface
trough is forecast to move into the eastern Gulf by late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. A secondary boundary...currently a cold
front analyzed across western Oklahoma and expected to
emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Tuesday and quickly
merge with the surface troughing lingering across the eastern
Gulf. As this occurs...a broad area of low pressure is forecast to
develop on Wednesday across the NE Gulf waters and drift eastward
across the Florida peninsula into the SW North Atlc waters by
Friday into Friday night.

Overall the Caribbean basin remains under fairly tranquil
conditions this evening with the exception of the northeastern
waters. An area of low pressure well N of Puerto Rico extends a
cold front along 65W to 22N then SW to the northern coast of
Hispaniola near 20N70W. Low-level moisture convergence within
southerly winds is generating widely scattered showers and
isolated tstms N of 13N between 59W-69W...including portions of
the Lesser Antilles...Puerto Rico...and the Mona Passage region.
Otherwise...dry and stable air aloft coupled with gentle to
moderate E-NE winds are prevailing and expected to persist through
Tuesday night. By Wednesday...a cold front is expected to move
across the central Gulf of Mexico and reach the Yucatan Channel
region and NW Caribbean waters introducing another round of fresh
to occasional strong W-NW winds.

Isolated showers are expected during the overnight hours into
Tuesday as a cold front is analyzed to the NE of the island.
Persistent northerly winds will continue to feed Atlc moisture
across northern portions of the islands that will result in these
showers through Wednesday afternoon.

A broad area of low pressure is noted across the SW North Atlc
focused on a 1011 mb low centered near 28N66W. The associated cold
front extends S to 22N65W then SW to the northern coast of
Hispaniola near 20N70W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring
to the E of the low from 18N-27N between 55W-63W. The low is
forecast to continue moving eastward and merge with a cold front
dropping into the discussion area from the NW...currently analyzed
from Bermuda near 32N65W to 30N70W. The entire system will
move into the central Atlc waters by Tuesday night into Wednesday
producing the Special Features near gale to gale force conditions
mentioned above. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high
centered across the Carolinas. The ridge will slide offshore
through Wednesday. Finally...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is
under the influence of another surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb
high centered NE of the Azores near 44W19W. The ridge axis extends
SW from the high to 32N32N to 16N47W.

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