Tropical Weather Discussion
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738
AXNT20 KNHC 201046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 5N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 1W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 20W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N87W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N90W TO 17N92W. 20
KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE W GULF HAS 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NE TEXAS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN
98W-101W. THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE GOES IFR
PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE GULF IS PRESENTLY VOID OF IFR
FOG OR STRATUS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 26N85W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
THE NE GULF. ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH CONVECTION REMAINING INLAND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE S COAST OF
CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE LOCATED OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA
RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE N COAST
OF VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE SEA HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SW TO W FLOW AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM AGAIN WED ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N72W. A 1008 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N55W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW TO 31N52W TO 26N60W TO 26N65W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 25N53W TO 22N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-34N
BETWEEN 45W-52W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
42N20W WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF
45W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N55W ENHANCING THE SURFACE
FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE E AT
15 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT NEAR
GALE WINDS THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 30N10W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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