Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 260939 CCA

Tropical Weather Discussion...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
530 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC Caribbean Sea section.


A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
16N23W to 07N24W, moving westward at 10 kt. Although satellite
imagery shows that the wave lacks deep moisture as it remains
under Saharan dry air and dust, there appears to be a broad
area of mid-level clouds rotating counterclockwise over the
area from 12N-15N between 22W-26W. The only convection related to
the wave is near where it crosses the monsoon trough. This
convection consists of the scattered moderate type intensity
within 30-60 nm north of the trough within 120 nm either side of
the wave.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
14N34W to 04N35W, moving westward 10-15 kt. This wave is moving
through a very stable surrounding atmospheric environment marked
by Saharan dry air and dust north of 11N. The SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery (TPW) imagery indicates that deep
moisture with this wave is confined to south of 11N. Satellite
imagery shows minimal deep convection with this wave. Only
scattered moderate convection is where the wave crosses the
monsoon trough within 60 nm east of the wave.

A large amplitude central tropical wave has its axis extending
from near 24N51W to 18N51W to 12N51W, moving westward at 15 kt.
The northern portion of this wave is observed as a very noticeable
area of moisture as seen on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave has a
distinct signal at 650-700 mb as suggested in global model
guidance. Saharan dry air and dust is following in behind the
wave as seen in the latest METEOSAT-9 imagery. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm east and 240 nm west
of the wave from 10N-13N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
within 60 nm elsewhere east of the wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 64W south
of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave has a distinct
moist area as seen on SSMI TPW imagery south of 14N and north
of 16N. Broad 700 mb troughing is much of the eastern Caribbean.
Since dry air aloft is evident across the central portion of
this wave as seen in water vapor imagery, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are mainly confined to within the
moisture areas highlighted by the TPW imagery. The wave will
move across the remainder of the Caribbean through this evening,
the central Caribbean Thursday and Thursday night and the
eastern portion of the western Caribbean on Friday.


The monsoon trough axis extends from 13N16W to 10N24W to 08N35W
to 08N42W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and
continues to 10N50W and briefly ends. It begins just to the
west of the tropical wave along 51W, and continues to 13N60W.
Besides convective activity described above in association
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within
60 nm north of the monsoon trough between 26W-30W, within 60 nm
south of the monsoon trough between 38W-40W, within 30 nm of the
ITCZ between 42W-46W and also within 60 nm south of the ITCZ
between 54W-56W.



In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the
western Gulf near 26N93W, with a trough extending south-southwestward
to 18N93W, and another trough extending northeastward to near
30N92W. Water vapor imagery shows a markedly increased area of
moisture covering the much of the western portion of the Gulf.
Ample moisture and instability associated with the upper level
low and first trough has resulted in numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms across the western half of the Gulf south
of 27N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
south of 26N across the central and eastern Gulf. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are over the Yucatan Peninsula, while
scattered showers and thunderstorms are over much of
southeastern Mexico. At the surface, a 1020 mb high centered at
28N88W dominates the wind flow pattern across the eastern and
central portions of the Gulf, with light to gentle anticyclonic
winds. The typical Yucatan Peninsula thermal trough has moved to
the eastern Bay of Campeche. Little change is expected with the
current synoptic pattern over the next couple of days.


A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. See above for
a discussion on this feature. In the upper levels, an upper
level low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 15N79W, with
a trough southwest to northern Panama. An anticyclone is just
north of the coast Venezuela at 11N65W, with associated
anticyclonic flow covering much of the eastern and central
Caribbean except for the northeast portion where the southern
portion of a central Atlantic upper trough is evident. Numerous
strong convection is increasing over the far SW Caribbean south
of 12N and west of 79W, and also south of 10N between the coast
of Colombia and 79W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen north of 15N between 67W-72W, and over
some areas of the eastern Caribbean associated with a tropical
wave there as discussed above. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are elsewhere. The tropical wave moving through
the eastern Caribbean should provide additional moisture and
instability that portion of the sea and also the central and
eastern portion of the western Caribbean over the next 48 hours.


Strong convection that occurred over western Haiti on Tuesday
evening has dissipated. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are increasing over the northeast section of the Dominican
Republic as an upper cyclonic shear axis nearby is providing
additional instability to an already very moist and unstable
environment present over the island. Water vapor imagery depicts
that moisture has increased in the upper levels compared to the
previous days. With plenty of deep layer moisture and instability
in place, and with the added factor of the eastern Caribbean
tropical wave forecast to pass near the island within the next 48
hours, expect for deep convection to become scattered to locally
numerous over most sections of Hispaniola through at least
Thursday night. Some of this activity may produce locally heavy
rain and frequent lightning.


In the upper levels, a large upper level low retrograding in a
general westward direction is identified to be over the central
Atlantic at 27N56W, with a trough stretching southwestward to
across the NE Caribbean Sea and to Hispaniola. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 20N-24N between 53W-58W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen south of 27N between
58W-75W, and are moving westward. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 70W. At the surface, a
1026 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N54W.
To its east, a 1028 mb high is centered over the eastern
Atlantic near 33N37W. A broad ridge covers most of the central
and eastern Atlantic. A large area of Saharan dust is present over
the eastern Atlantic, and muchn of the central Atlantic behind
the tropical wave along 51W. In the tropics, there are three
tropical waves. See above for discussions on these features. No
major changes expected through next couple of days.

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