Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 240531

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.


Hurricane Maria is centered near 27.0N 72.5W at 24/0300 UTC or
about 248 nm east of Great Abaco Island, moving north at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is from 24N-31N between 68W-76W. See the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Lee is centered near 32.1N 49.8W at 24/0300 UTC or
about 747 nm east of Bermuda, moving south-southeast at 1 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 31N-34N between 49W-52W. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.


A tropical wave extends its axis from 22N23W to 07N25W, moving
west at 5-10 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb low, the
northern vortex, centered near 21N21W. No significant deep
convection is associated with the wave axis at this time. The ongoing
convection is related to the monsoon trough axis and will be
mentioned below.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 19N57W to 06N58W moving
west at 10-15 kt. The wave remains on the southwestern periphery
of a 700 mb ridge anchored near 22N40W and lies beneath an upper
level trough axis extending along 53W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 08N-20N between 53W-58W.


The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
14N17W to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 07N55W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails along the monsoon trough
and in the vicinity of the ITCZ near the tropical wave over the
central Atlantic mainly west of 52W.



A mid to upper-level low is noted on water vapor imagery centered
over southern Alabama near 32N86W with a trough axis extending
southward over the eastern Gulf to a broad base over the Yucatan
peninsula and northwest Caribbean. A weak pressure pattern across
the basin is resulting in gentle to moderate easterly winds with
areas of isolated showers generally occurring north of 26N and
east of 88W under the influence of the middle to upper level
lifting dynamics in place. Elsewhere, dry and stable northerly
flow aloft and generally gentle to moderate easterly winds are
providing for fair conditions and mostly clear skies. Through the
remainder of the weekend into the middle of next week, little
change is expected in overall conditions.


West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails west of 73W as Hurricane
Maria is well north of the basin and an overall weak pressure
pattern remains in place across the central and western Caribbean.
As a result of the weaker pressure pattern, winds remain
generally light to gentle and variable at times. A couple of weak
surface troughs are analyzed, one from the coast of central Cuba
near 22N80W to 19N83W, and the other extending south of Hispaniola
near 18N70W to 15N72W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
in the vicinity of the second trough affecting the waters south of
14N between 71W-77W. A tropical wave currently along 58W will
continue approaching the Lesser Antilles through the weekend increasing
the probability of convection across the islands and adjacent


A surface trough currently extends from the south-central coast
near 18N70W to 15N72W and continues to provide focus for
isolated showers across the southeastern portion and south coast
of the island. The troughing will slide westward through the
weekend as weak ridging builds in from the central Atlantic from
the east.


Outside the influence of Maria across the west Atlantic waters,
surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the
basin. A 1020 mb high is centered near 34N57W, and a 1021 mb high
is centered across the central Atlantic near 28N39W. Between
these two highs, Tropical Storm Lee continues to influence the
waters from 30N-33N between 48W-52W. In addition, a mid to upper-level
trough extends along 52W enhancing convection from 20N-25N
between 50W-53W.

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