Tropical Weather Discussion
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840
AXNT20 KNHC 151052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
552 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...

A stationary front passes across SE Cuba near 20N77W into the
Caribbean Sea to 16N80W to 13N81W to 09N81W. Expect N gale-force
winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 12N
to 14N to the W of 82W until around 15Z this morning. Gale force
winds along the coast of Nicaragua will diminish to strong by this
afternoon, then become moderate Tue through Fri night. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters
Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends WSW from the Ivory Coast near 05N05E to
03N10W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 03N25W to
01S34W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
from 01N to 04N between 13W and 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pres ridge extending SW over the Gulf will slowly move E
through tonight. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds this
morning E of 85W will persist through Tue night. A strong cold
front will enter the NW Gulf Tue afternoon, reach from the Florida
panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico Tue evening and
move to just SE of the area early on Wed. Gales could occur near
Tampico and Veracruz Tue night and Wed. Strong high pres following
in the wake of the front will shift E through Thu night and
weaken.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front reaching from eastern Cuba near 20N77W to
16N80W to 13N81W to 09N81W will weaken and dissipate by Tue
morning. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
associated with this boundary is occurring up to 60 nm W of the
front and up to 150 nm E of the front. Gale force winds along the
coast of Nicaragua will diminish to strong by this afternoon, then
become moderate Tue through Fri night. Otherwise, strong winds
will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through Fri
night. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the
tropical Atlc waters until Tue evening.

...HISPANIOLA...

Relatively dry weather will be in store for the next couple of
days. Expect partly cloudy skies and isolated showers to prevail.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the stationary front
over eastern Cuba will remain there and eventually dissipate as
the front weakens in place. A surface trough passing to the N of
Puerto Rico will produce little in the way of sensible weather as
most of the convection associated with this trough is concentrated
on the NE side of the trough.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N72W to 28N74W to 24N75W to
eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Strong N to NE winds W of the front will
gradually diminish through Tue as the front weakens. A strong
cold front will move off the SE United States coast on Wed, then
weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thu
evening. The front will become a westward moving trough over the
far SE waters Fri. Robust high pres following the front will bring
strong N to NE winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas. These
conditions will diminish late Thu night through Fri.

Otherwise, deep layer high pressure dominates the remainder of
the basin between the stationary front and the African coast. This
is reflected by a 1044 mb surface high centered west of the
Azores near 41N39W. The most recent satellite-derived wind data
indicated a large belt of strong trades from 20N to 32N between
he coast of Africa and 60W. A surface trough extending from 19N63W
to 27N62W is tightening the pressure gradient N of 20N and serves
and the focus for scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection within 60 nm either side of a line from 21N49W to
23N55W to 26N58W. Another surface trough is developing to the SE
of another upper-level low centered near 27N40W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this
system is found from 25N to 30N E of 40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy




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