Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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798
AXNT20 KNHC 040554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 4N19W ALONG 2N27W 1N35W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR FROM 41W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 23W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 04/0900 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ALONG 27N88W 25N91W TO A WEAK 1010
MB LOW NEAR 21N93W THEN INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W
TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE W GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES THAT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH ON THU. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE E REACHING FROM NE FLORIDA ALONG 21N93W TO THE E BAY
OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU MORNING THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE FAR E BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY THU EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH EARLY THU EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN
TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN AND COUPLED
WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ONLY PRODUCING PATCHES
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 17N W OF 79W TO OVER W CUBA.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT MORNING PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS FRI NIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH SOME
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF HAITI. AN
UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W FROM
NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY FRI BRINGING MOISTURE TO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
THEN MERGE WITH A FRONT OVER THE SW ATLC FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N69W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
NEAR 23N58W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N55W TO A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 23N56W CONTINUING S TO 16N56W. THE UPPER LOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 58W-62W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS INDUCED TO THE E OF THE UPPER
LOW WHICH IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 46W-53W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM
13N55W TO 15N52W THEN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N52W TO
20N50W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH NE OFF THE COAST OF
PORTUGAL. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC
LATE THU AND WILL EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
EARLY FRI MORNING AND FROM 32N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT
BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AN
INVERTED TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SHIFT NW THROUGH
FRI AS IT WEAKENS THEN IT WILL MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT SAT. A
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT DEVELOPING
A NEW COLD FRONT ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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