Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 140600

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
05N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from
05N17W to 03N35W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N to 07N between 20W and 30W.



Surface ridging dominates the basin anchored by a pair of 1020 mb
highs, one near 20N96W and the second near 25N83W. This surface
pattern is supporting light to gentle variable winds. Deep layer
dry air supports clear skies S of 25N. Looking ahead, another
cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf Thu, then reach
from the Florida Big Bend area in the NE Gulf to near Tampico
Mexico by Fri afternoon, then stall from Tampa to the Bay of
Campeche on Sat before lifting back to the W and NW through Sun.
Gale force winds are possible along the coast of Mexico near
Tampico Fri night and Sat.


The tail of a weakening cold front extends from eastern Cuba near
20N78W to 20N85W with possible isolated showers within 60 nm
either side of the boundary. Ahead of the front, the remnants of a
former cold front are analyzed as a trough from the Windward
Passage to eastern Jamaica to Panama adjacent waters near 10N79W.
Isolated showers are within 240 nm west and 150 nm east of the
trough axis, respectively. Isolated showers associated with the
trough are in NW Hispaniola continuing through Thursday morning.
Fair weather is elsewhere. In addition to showers, fresh to
strong winds are in the vicinity of the surface trough as
indicated by latest scatterometer data. Light to moderate trades
are in the remainder central and eastern basin. Winds are
forecast to increase to 20-25 kt over the south-central Caribbean
on Thu night, with gale conditions possible Sat night and Sun
night as high pressure builds N of area.


Cloudiness prevail over Hispaniola due to the proximity of a
surface trough that currently crosses the Windward Passage towards
Cuba. Isolated light showers are still possible tonight and early
Thu. Then, moisture will diminish later on Thu as the trough
continues to weaken and drift westward.


A cold front enters the forecast area near 30N62W and continues
SW across the southern Bahamas into eastern Cuba. A surface trough
is farther east and stretches from 30N57W to NE Dominican Republic
adjacent waters near 20N68W. The cold front will continue to move
SE while gradually dissipating on Thu. A ridge will then build
along 25N in the wake of the cold front. Another cold front is
forecast to move off the NE Florida coast early Fri, reach from
Bermuda to South Florida Sat, then reach from 24N65W to eastern
Cuba early Sun. The remainder of the Atlantic Ocean is under the
influence of a 1035 mb high pressure located just south of the
Azores. This high extends a ridge SW to near the NE Caribbean.

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