Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 051039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 73W-77W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 40W/41W
FROM 5N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM
5N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 80W/81W
FROM 10N-18N MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 19N16W ALONG 11N19W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N35W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N40W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N43W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N51W. AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
9N46W 8N54W TO 11N63W INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE N GULF COAST GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
N GULF COAST BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO VERMILION BAY
LOUISIANA. AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS
MORNING EXTENDING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 23N89W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO S OF 22N AND W OF 95W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF
AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING
SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR ORLANDO
FLORIDA TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W
OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.
A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING. TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN
MON WITH A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
RETURN TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N76W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 77W-80W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR
27N70W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 64W-74W. THE ATLC BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N
OF THE AREA NEAR 34N43W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
32N55W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEST PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST COVERS A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AREA OF THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ
TO 21N/22N TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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