Tropical Weather Discussion
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079
AXNT20 KNHC 221759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Cindy is centered near 31.0N 93.5W at 22/1500
UTC or about 140 nm NW of Morgan City Louisiana moving N at 11
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Isolated
moderate convection is from 30N-33N between 92W-97W...well inland
across interior portions of eastern Texas and Louisiana. See
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 10N18W to 20N15W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 10W-22W and
an area of weak and broad surface low pressure focused on a 1009
mb low centered near 16N19W. Scattered moderate convection is from
07N-13N between 15W-23W.

Tropical wave extends from 08N42W to 15N39W moving W at 5-10 kt.
A 1012 mb low remains embedded within the Monsoon Trough at the
southern extent of the wave axis. Broad 700 mb troughing is noted
between 38W-45W with 850 mb relative vorticity coinciding with the
surface low circulation. Scattered moderate convection is from
03N-10N between 36W-45W.

Tropical wave extends from 04N58W to 13N57W moving W at 5-10 kt.
The wave is moving within the southern periphery of a 700 mb low
centered E of the Lesser Antilles near 15N56W. Subtle and broad
low to middle level troughing is noted between 56W-61W with a
maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity occurring across inland
portions of Guyana. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-09N
between 57W-61W.

Tropical wave extends from 09N81W to 19N77W moving W at 15-20 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 72W-83W
within the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over
the SW North Atlc near 29N77W. The wave is also moving within the
influence of an upper level low centered over the western
Caribbean Sea near 16N83W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 09N-19N between 77W-85W...and is more closely related to the
upper level dynamics in place over the region.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The Monsoon Trough extends from 10N19W to 08N29W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N29W to 09N37W
to 08N42W to 05N50W to 06N57W. Aside from convection associated
with the tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from
the Equator to 07N between the Prime Meridian and 05W...and from
the Equator to 03N between 36W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Tropical Depression Cindy continues to remain inland across
interior portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana this
afternoon stretching widely scattered showers and isolated tstms
across the NW Gulf waters generally N of 27N between 92W-97W.
Cindy remains centered beneath a vigorous middle to upper level
low nearly collocated with the surface low with influence covering
the area from 26N-34N between 90W-99W. Water vapor imagery
indicates relatively dry air aloft to the S of the upper level low
over the remainder of the western Gulf and over a narrow corridor
between 90W-92W within the southeastern periphery of Cindy. Fresh
to strong southerly winds are noted across much of the Gulf...
however cloudiness and isolated showers and tstms are occurring
within 120 nm either side of a line from Mobile Bay near 30N88W to
the eastern Bay of Campeche near 19N91W. Otherwise...ridging
continues to influence the SE Gulf and Florida peninsula as an
extension of a 1023 mb high centered across the SW North Atlc near
30N66W. Cindy is expected to track across Arkansas and the
Tennessee River valley through Friday night while winds gradually
diminish across the Gulf into moderate to fresh levels by Friday
night into Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low is centered across the western Caribbean near
16N83W supporting scattered showers and tstms across much of
Central America and the Caribbean waters generally S of 20N
between 77W-85W. The presence of a tropical wave along 80W and the
Monsoon Trough axis along 10N across Costa Rica is providing
additional focus for this convective activity. The upper level low
is expected to move NW toward the SW Gulf of Mexico by Saturday
with the tropical wave moving westward into the East Pacific
waters during the weekend. Increased probability of convection and
precipitation is expected across Central America and southern
Mexico through Sunday. Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean
is under the influence of moderate to fresh trades with a weak
tropical wave...currently along 58W...expected to bring
precipitation to northern Venezuela and the Windward Islands
through Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly clear skies prevail currently across the island as surface
ridging to the N across the SW North Atlc remains in place
providing mostly fair weather conditions. In addition...an upper
level anticyclone centered over the island is continuing to
provide an environment of overall subsidence.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered offshore of NE
Florida and the Georgia coast near 31N80W that continues to
support a 1023 mb high centered S-SW of Bermuda near 30N66W. Most
cloudiness and precipitation remains N of 32N...with generally
gentle to moderate winds prevailing within the southern periphery
of the ridging. Occasional fresh easterly winds were captured by
scatterometer this morning S of 21N between 71W-74W...impacting
the approach to the Windward Passage and along the northern coast
of Hispaniola. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and
eastern Atlc is under the influence of surface ridging anchored by
a 1025 mb high centered near 34N48W. Water vapor imagery indicates
a middle to upper level low is centered near 29N53W and is
inducing a weak 1018 mb low centered near 25N54W and surface
troughing extending NE of the low to 28N52W. Isolated showers and
tstms are occurring from 24N-28N between 50W-53W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN




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