Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 231804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N14W TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 3N23W 2N31W AND 1N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
BRAZIL AND IN FRENCH GUIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM THE THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 47W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 7N7W IN THE IVORY COAST...TO 3N16W AND
3N22W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 9W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W...
CROSSING NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 25N94W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N
TO THE WEST OF 90W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS...TO TEXAS NEAR
29N101W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NORTHWESTWARD...
BEYOND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A 1016 MB ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N91W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KVAF AND KSPR WITH A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND
FOG. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER WESLACO...MCALLEN...AND EDINBURG
IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...FROM FALFURRIAS TO THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN KINGSVILLE...FROM VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS...AND
AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES...
AND IN THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA...IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL
LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...
AND IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS
BEING REPORTED IN TALLAHASSEE AND IN BROOKSVILLE. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND
SURROUNDING CITIES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF
VENEZUELA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CURVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE
WEST OF 66W FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...AND POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.28 IN
GUADELOUPE..

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF
VENEZUELA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CURVING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N56W 26N60W 21N70W...THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 85W IN
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... FEW
LOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...LA
ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A RIDGE THAT
RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF AN EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND A TROUGH.
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE TROUGH DURING THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N56W TO
30N58W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N56W TO 31N56W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N56W 26N60W
21N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N80W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N85W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N53W...TO 28N55W AND 25N59W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
BERMUDA.

REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE ALONG
26N15W 18N27W 14N39W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 240 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF 25N15W 20N23W...WITHIN 400 NM TO 600 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 20N23W 10N38W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND THE MONA
PASSAGE.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N35W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
31N56W 17N85W SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N56W TO
22N65W. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 59W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 35W AND
46W. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. A
FOURTH AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N66W TO
29N74W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
TO 63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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