Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 020552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 29.1W AT 02/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 356 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 11
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 25W-29W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 6N-
20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SSMI TPW DOES NOT
SHOW ANY SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N66W ACROSS
PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N71W
MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 85W S OF 18N TO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W-SW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N W
OF 84W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER AFRICA TO THE COAST THEN
RESUMES S OF TROPICAL STORM FRED NEAR 13N29W TO 7N49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 37W-41W AND
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 44W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 28N-35W AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 36W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS INTO THE
GULF NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE COVERING THE
W GULF AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 22N95W 26N92W TO
OVER LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW TO THE E YUCATAN
PENINSULA COVERING THE E GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF
ERIKA EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF JUST N OF
CEDAR KEY TO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW NEAR 29N85W THEN S-SW TO 26N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH E OF THE SURFACE LOW. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S
OVER THE NW GULF AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH OVER
TENNESSEE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED BEFORE
DISSIPATING WED NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED W OF JAMAICA
NEAR 18N80W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED N
OF 20N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 79W-84W. THE UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N66W
TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
62W-76W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE
FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THU. THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA WED.
THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND WED THEN ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 20N66W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI AND THE GULF
OF GONAVE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH
WED NIGHT BEFORE SHIFT SE EARLY THU. MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY THU BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ISLAND WED AND EARLY THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS E ALONG 27N72W TO 26N52W. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 45-56W. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH DIPS S INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N37W ALONG
25N42W 22N55W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N66W THEN TO OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 33N37W ALONG 30N39W TO 27N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 30N69W. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN WILL SHIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS A WEAK FRONT SINKS SLOWLY S INTO THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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