Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 021105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MIXED WITH ITCZ CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W...IN THE
EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA...FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N TO CUBA
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA ALONG 78W AND 85W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ARE IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND IN NORTHWESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 5N77W...TO THE GULF
OF PANAMA NEAR 7N79W...TO 7N81W ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA...TO
9N84W ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. PART OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND PART OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
RELATED TO THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W...CURVING
TO 12N20W AND 7N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N22W TO 6N29W
2N34W 4N39W AND 3N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF
AFRICA FROM 7W EASTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO
11N BETWEEN 10W AND 18W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W...
AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 26W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N90W...TO 26N91W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND CUBA NORTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IS PUSHING MULTILAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FLORIDA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
ALONG 92W/93W FROM 17N TO 23N.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KXIH...KMDJ...
AND KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

ALICE TEXAS IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND
FOG...AND THE KINGSVILLE NAVAL AIR STATION IS REPORTING A
VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG. MOBILE ALABAMA IS
REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A VISIBILITY
OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IS BEING OBSERVED IN CRESTVIEW IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND IN MARIANNA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
IS BEING OBSERVED IN ST. PETERSBURG.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
PLEASE READ ABOUT THE WAVE AND THE NEARBY CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE REST OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N
NORTHWARD.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
FROM 13N SOUTHWARD. SOME OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE BROAD WESTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS EASTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.43 IN HAVANA
CUBA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 25N68W 22N71W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR 20N68W...AND
REMAIN IN THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...EVENTUALLY
MOVING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO
17N60W JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 57W AND
75W. A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N74W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 25N68W 22N71W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 54W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N33W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N35W AND TO 18N38W. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 19N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND
40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND
54W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 65W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 35N44W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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