Tropical Weather Discussion
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697
AXNT20 KNHC 071318 CCA
TWDAT

AXNT20 KNHC DDHHMM
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR SPECIAL FEATURES
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
IN ABOUT 18 HOURS OR SO...

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TO BE NEAR 31N76W. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 23N79W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 11 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM
31N75W TO 27N74W TO 21N75W. EXPECT STORM-FORCE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 18 FEET TO 23 FEET...TO THE
NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 78W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 67W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE
FRONT BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF
LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W TO 04N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N16W TO
02N25W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N TO
04N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W...AND FROM 05N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 32W AND
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW IS DIGGING THROUGH
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND 90W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM EAST TO WEST.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...TO THE NORTHEAST OF 26N97W 21N90W...EXCEPT FOR THE
PART THAT IS FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE...MOSTLY IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO
26N76W TO 23N79W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG
THE MEXICO GULF COAST...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...SUGARLAND...IN
TOMBALL... AND IN CONROE. LIFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
LOUISIANA...IFR/LIFR AT THE LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL AIRPORT.
MVFR/IFR AT NEW IBERIA. MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...VFR/NO
CEILINGS. FLORIDA...IFR IN BROOKSVILLE. MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OF THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE
ALBERT WHITTED AIRPORT IN ST. PETERSBURG. SARASOTA...LIGHT RAIN
AND MVFR. MVFR...AT MARATHON KEY AND AT THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE RAIN THAT WAS BEING REPORTED SIX
HOURS AGO ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS STOPPED...AT LEAST
FROM WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWARD TO HOMESTEAD.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO 23N80W
ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 20N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO ROATAN OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH CUBA NEAR 22N80W
TO EASTERN HONDURAS.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 64W
EASTWARD. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
21N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND
SOUTHEASTERLY 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 07/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
FOR BARAHONA AT 07/0000 UTC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. SANTO DOMINGO...LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR...OVERCAST AT 1400 FEET. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...AND THEN BECOME
WESTERLY AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE ORIENTATION OF A RIDGE WILL
CHANGE AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES FROM
NICARAGUA EASTWARD TO 70W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT HAITI WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THE CENTER WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME...PUSHING SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY
WILL DISSIPATE ABOUT BY THE END OF THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO.
WEST WIND FLOW DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE WILL
COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE.
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 200 NM TO THE
EAST OF SAINT LUCIA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY DURING DAY TWO...PUSHING MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N50W TO 29N60W 26N70W...TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO
31N64W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N64W TO 30N70W...TO A 1008
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR
23N80W...TO ROATAN OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 31N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF RAIN ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N65W 26N76W...TO CUBA NEAR 23N79W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.09 IN
BERMUDA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N54W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO
26N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 64W EASTWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N29W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N31W AND 15N36W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 26W
AND 31W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 29N FROM 30W EASTWARD.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
60W EASTWARD. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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