Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 190607

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
207 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.


At 19/0600 UTC, Category 4 Hurricane Maria is located near 15.7N
61.9W or about 30 nm WNW of Dominica and 210 nm SE of St. Croix,
moving WNW at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 924
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt.
Numerous strong convection is within 210 nm of the center in all
quadrants. The eye of Maria will move over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea on Tuesday and approach the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

At 19/0300 UTC, Hurricane Jose is located about 200 nm east of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 35.2N 71.3W, moving N at 7 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm N of the center of Jose. Isolated
moderate convection is elsewhere from 30N to 40N between 62W and
76W. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the
Delmarva peninsula early Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the
New Jersey coast on Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

At 19/0300 UTC, the remnants of Tropical Depression Lee are
located near 15.1N 43.0W or about 1085 nm W of the Cabo Verde
Islands, moving NW at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35
kt. Numerous strong convection and scattered tstms are within 135
nm E of the low center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 11N to 16N between 40W and 44W. For the last advisory on Lee,
please see the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers


A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N78W to 09N82W, moving west at about 15 kt. The wave is in
a region of moderate vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW imagery at
the lower levels show large patches of dry air in the central
wave environment. Moderate shallow moisture and divergent flow
aloft support scattered showers and tstms in the northern wave
environment N of 19N between 74W and 82W, and in the southern wave
environment S of 12N between 76W and 84W.


The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
21N17W to 16N22W to 09N27W. Aside from the convection associated
with the remnants of Tropical Depression Lee, scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 14N E of 25W associated with a tropical
wave coming off the coast of W Africa. Otherwise, similar
convection is from 05N to 09N between 30W and 47W.



Weak surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico basin with
light and variable winds over most of the basin with the
exception of moderate to locally fresh SE winds within 60 nm of
the coast of Texas and moderate to fresh NE winds over the E Bay
of Campeche. Enhanced winds off the W Yucatan Peninsula are
associated with the northern region of a tropical wave moving over
EPAC waters. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf along with dry air
subsidence continue to support clear skies, except for scattered
showers over the E Bay of Campeche associated with the tropical
wave. Surface high pressure will dominate across the basin through


Major Hurricane Maria is moving across the central Lesser
Antilles. Maria is forecast to move NW and make landfall in Puerto
Rico Wednesday morning. Please see special features for further
details. The remaining weather in the basin is associated with a
tropical wave moving across the W Caribbean waters. See the
tropical waves section for more information. Otherwise, a relaxed
pressure gradient due to Hurricanes Maria and Jose allow for light
to gentle trades W of 67W. Expect for the tropical wave to
continue moving west with minimal convection.


Isolated showers are in the Windward Passage and southern Haiti
adjacent waters. Mostly fair weather prevails across the island.
Hurricane Maria is forecast to approach the Island Wednesday


Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, Hurricane Maria and the remnants of
T. D. Lee. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence
of a broad surface ridge centered north of the area.

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