Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W STARTING AT 0600 UTC TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
28W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN NO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT WIND
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N
TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR
59W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND DRY AIR AHEAD
OF IT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE WAVE
IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST COVER THE
ENTIRE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS NEAR
85W...MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
MODERATE MOISTURE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 17N
BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
16N16W TO 11N26W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N40W TO 10N51W. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N
TO 18N E OF 18W AND FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS HAS AN AXIS
EXTENDING E-SE ACROSS THE N-NW GULF. A TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT WITH A 1011
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N84W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW W-SW TO 27N90W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. WITH THE
BASE OF THE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO THE NE BASIN...DIFFLUENCE IS BEING GENERATED. THE
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE NE
BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 25N E
OF 88W. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE
BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 85.5W WHERE WINDS ARE
FROM THE SW RANGING FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT. SEAS IN THIS REGION OF
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT. BY TOMORROW NIGHT...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND ACROSS THE S-SE CONUS WHILE
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS WHERE A DIFFLUENT WIND
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING
GENERATED BY THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW OVER THE
SW N ATLC SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN
74W AND 83W. DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN AS
INDICATED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORT NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KT FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT.
GALE-FORCE WIND ARE FORECAST IN THIS REGION STARTING 0600
UTC...THIS MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ENTERING THE E BASIN SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUNDAY
MORNING...THUS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AT THE TIME. DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 28N W OF 71W. SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...THUS FAVORING
FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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