Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 160535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N26W TO 04N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N
BETWEEN 19W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
29N77W AND EXTENDING W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. A
1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 27N98W
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONNECTED TO IT AND EXTENDING N ACROSS
CENTRAL US. PRE-FRONTAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS TEXAS TO MOVE E REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS
PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N74W. A
SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 16N80W TO 10N82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 100 NM FROM
THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF
THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT OVER THE SW PORTION. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N55W WITH A SHEARLINE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS FRONT TO
TRANSITION INTO A SHEARLINE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N77W. SURFACE RIDGING
AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER NW ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 58W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO 18N63W
TO 23N54W TO 30N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THIS LAST
POINT TO 44N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF 21N...BETWEEN 42W-51W. TO THE E...A LARGE
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 40N26W WITH FAIR WEATHER.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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