Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 182339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 02S30W to the South
American Coast near 03S40W. Isolated moderate convection is from
00N-06N between 10W-23W, and from 02S-02N between 30W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A small 1011 mb low is centered near Mobile Alabama at 30N88W.
Elsewhere, a 1021 mb high is centered E of the Bahamas at 27N68W
producing 5-10 kt southerly return flow over the Gulf of Mexico.
In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over NW
Alabama near 34N88W. A trough axis extends S to the central Gulf
of Mexico near 25N91W. Upper level diffluence E of the trough
axis is producing bands of scattered moderate convection over
the SE Gulf and central Florida from 25N-29N between 81W-86W.
Expect in 24 hours for the surface low to dissipate. Also expect
a 1020 mb high to develop over the Florida Panhandle with 10-15
anticyclonic surface winds over the Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
  over the next
24 hours for prefrontal showers to be over the Island.
The tail-end of a dissipating cold front is over the Windward
Passage producing scattered showers N of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are over E Venezuela, Trinidad, W Panama,
Costa Rica, and E Cuba. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the
Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia,
and over the NW Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level
high is over the central Caribbean Sea near 14N75W. Upper level
moisture is over the Yucatan Peninsula, the NW Caribbean, and W
Cuba. Strong subsidence is elsewhere. Expect little change over
the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are now over Hispaniola. Expect showers to
persist over E Hispaniola   over the next 24 hours for
prefrontal showers to be over the Island. for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high is centered E of the Bahamas at 27N68W. A cold
front is over the central Atlantic from 31N47W to 24N53W to
20N63W. A dissipating cold front continues to the Windward
Passage at 18N68W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120
nm E of front N of 26N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within
90 nm of the front. A 1033 mb high is centered over the Azores
near 39N25W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough
is over the central Atlantic N of 25N between 40W-60W supporting
the cold front. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend
from 31N42W to 23N50W to 20N60W with convection and showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa


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