Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 160003

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front entering the NW Gulf Tue will reach from the
Florida panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico Tue
evening, and move SE of the area on Wed. Northerly winds to gale
force are possible near Tampico and Veracruz Tue night and Wed,
and frequent gusts to gale force are expected over the NW waters
Tue and Tue night. Strong high pressure will follow the front.

Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore
Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Liberia,
Africa and continues to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to
02N30W to 03N35W to the Equator at 50W into NE Brazil. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90-110 nm N of ITCZ axis between
35W and 40W.



High pressure over the SE CONUS extends a ridge across the Gulf
region, producing mainly gentle to moderate NE-E winds, except
fresh northerly winds in the SE Gulf. Stratocumulus clouds over
the Gulf waters are more concentrated in the southern Gulf.
Persistent low clouds are banked up against the Sierra Madre
Oriental in Mexico. The ridge will slowly move E tonight. Fresh
to locally strong N to NE winds will persist E of 85W through
Tue night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue
afternoon followed by a strong high pressure system. Please see
Special Features section for more details.


A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba across Jamaica to
the coast of Panama near 09N82W. Scattered showers are noted in
association with the frontal boundary S of 17N. Stratocumulus
clouds are observed behind the front over the NW Caribbean.
Patches of low level clouds with embedded showers elsewhere E of
the front are forecast to weaken and dissipate by Tue evening. A
recent ASCAT pass indicates fresh to strong N winds behind the
front, with strong northerly winds near the coast of Nicaragua.
Moisture associated with the remnants of the front will drift
westward Tue into Wednesday, increasing the likelihood of
showers over Central America and the NW Caribbean. Otherwise,
strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night
through Fri night. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft
in the tropical Atlc waters until Tue evening.


Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated
showers will prevail for the next couple of days. A surface
trough passing N of Puerto Rico will produce little convection.


A stationary front extends from 31N70W across the Bahamas to
eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Strong N to NE winds W of the front
will gradually diminish through Tue as the front weakens. A
strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed, then
weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thu
evening, then become a westward moving trough over the far SE
waters Fri. Strong high pres behind the front will bring strong
N to NE winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas on Thursday.

High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin to the
African coast. The most recent satellite-derived wind data
indicated a large area of fresh to strong trades from 20N-31N
between 20W-60W. A surface trough associated with an upper-level
low extends from 29N64W to 23N64W. Fresh to locally strong E-SE
winds are NE of the trough due to the pressure gradient between
it and the strong mid-Atlantic ridge. A band of showers is well
east of the trough, and covers the waters from 20N-22N between
45W-50W, and from 21N-25N between 50W-57W. Another surface
trough is SE of another upper-level low centered near 27N42W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated
with this system is found from 26N-31N between 35W- 43W.

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