Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 282337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 04S21W TO 04S33W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY
S OF THE EQUATOR EXTENDING FROM 04S33W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 02S-06S
MAINLY W OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE W SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE COAST OF E
MEXICO WHILE ANOTHER 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N88W. SLIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR
WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN AS A COLD FRONT FROM 22N80W TO
19N86W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH 16N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE BOUNDARIES. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH CONTINUES QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 21N78W TO
18N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 19N BETWEEN
75W-81W AFFECTING E CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND THE
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA. TO THE
E...AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE
AND HENCE FAIR WEATHER. GENTLE TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-
78W WHERE A GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW CONTINUES. OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE E WHILE LOSING
ENERGY AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST N OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA INCREASING TO FRESH/STRONG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
MOISTURE INCREASES AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
APPROACH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN 12-24 HOURS. THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION PRIMARILY ACROSS HAITI BY SUNDAY...THEN
COVERING THE WHOLE ISLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO 22N78W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS
ALONG THIS FRONT. TO THE E...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30N67W TO 22N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS EXTEND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...A WEAK 1021 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N40W
ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 27N BETWEEN 36W-42W. A STATIONARY
FRONT ASSOCIATED TO THIS LOW EXTENDS FROM 31N36W TO 23N44W.
LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE W ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE
E/CENTRAL ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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