Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 161151
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1002 mb low pressure center is near 32N54W. A cold front
extends from the low center to 30N63W and 26N66W. The cold front
is dissipating from 26N66W to 25N75W. A surface trough is along
31N56W 27N60W 25N66W 21N73W. Gale-force S to SW winds and sea
heights ranging from 9 feet to 14 feet, N of 28.5N E of the
surface trough to 50W, during the next 24 hours. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow is on top of the area of the cold front and
surface trough. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong within 300 nm on either side of the
line from the eastern part of the Dominican Republic near 19N68W,
to 26N55W, beyond 32N50W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 08N23W to 06N33W, to
the coastal waters of French Guiana near 05N52W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N to 11N from
37W eastward.

An upper level trough extends from a 32N22W cyclonic circulation
center to 24N24W 16N36W 09N45W and 04N50W. Precipitation:
Isolated moderate rainshowers from 04N to 17N between 37W and
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level NW wind flow, dry air, and subsidence span the entire
area.

A surface trough is along 22N94W 19N91W, in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible from 20N to 23N between
87W and 94W.

A surface ridge extends from a southern Alabama 1021 mb high
pressure center, into the west central Gulf of Mexico, to 18N96W
in southern Mexico.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure center that
is near 18N76W, off the eastern coast of Jamaica, to 11N81W. The
monsoon trough continues from 11N81W, across Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers within 90 nm on either side of the line from 18N72W
14N74W 10N82W.

An upper level ridge extends from NW coastal Venezuela beyond the
NE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Broad upper level anticyclonic
wind flow spans nearly the entire Caribbean Sea. An upper level
trough is moving through the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

...HISPANIOLA...

Numerous rainshowers will persist across Hispaniola during the
next few days. Deep moisture is going to be pulled NE across the
area due to an upper level trough that is to the west of the
island. The precipitation amounts will be comparatively the
greatest in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum
heating. Localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides are
also possible during this time.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across
the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS model for 500 mb shows
that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48
hours. Hispaniola will be on the eastern side of a trough. The
GFS model for 700 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the
area during day one. The trough that is just to the west of
Hispaniola during day one will move across Hispaniola during day
two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32N60W to
26N74W, across Cuba, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea to
the Gulf of Honduras. The trough is surrounded by comparatively
drier air in subsidence.

A cold front passes through 32N77W to 31N79W. The cold front is
dissipating from 31N79W to 28N80W and 25N80W. A surface trough
curves from 32N76W to 30N75W to 28N77W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through
32N70W 28N70W 25N74W 23N80W, in the Atlantic Ocean and in the
Florida Straits.

A surface trough passes through 32N21W to 31N21W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 28N northward
between 20W and 23W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb high pressure center that is
near 33N37W, to 24N42W, to 17N50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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