Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 190517

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1217 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 05N10W and
continues to 00N22W. The ITCZ begins near 00N22W to 00N48W.
Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm north of both boundaries
between 20W-40W.



A surface ridge prevails across the Gulf waters in the wake of a
cold front that currently extends across the west Atlantic and
central Caribbean. A weakness in the ridge is analyzed as a
surface trough in the far western portion of the basin, extending
from 28N96W to 21N95W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh northerly winds across the basin with locally strong winds
in the Straits of Florida. Winds will weaken during the next 24
hours as the pressure gradient relaxes across the basin. Fresh to
locally strong southerly flow will set-up again across the
western Gulf and persist through early this weekend ahead on the
next cold front forecast to reach the Texas coast by Sunday


The tail end of a frontal boundary is analyzed as a cold front
from 20N75W to 18N78W, then as a stationary front from that point
to 10N84W. These fronts are underneath a mid-level divergent flow
that along shallow moisture supports scattered showers south of
20N and between 75W-83W. Latest scatterometer data show fresh to
near gale-force winds in the northwest Caribbean behind the
front. The frontal boundary is expected to stall across the
Windward Passage by Friday morning then dissipate by Saturday
morning. Strong trade winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia
coast on Friday night and then expand across much of the central
Caribbean over the weekend as high pressure builds north of the


Partly cloudy skies and scattered showers prevail across the
island as a cold front approaches from the west. The front is
forecast to stall in the Windward Passage overnight and then
dissipate by Saturday morning. This scenario will allow for the
continuation of cloudy skies with potential for scattered showers
through the early weekend. Fresh northeast winds are expected
across the Windward Passage through Saturday night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic in the wake of the


A cold front is moving across the west Atlantic waters with
moderate to fresh winds west of it. In the central Atlantic, an
upper-level low is reflected at the surface as a trough that
continues to support scattered moderate convection from 21N-28N
between 38W-43W. Elsewhere, the Azores high dominates the remainder
central and east Atlantic. The front will continue to move towards
the central Atlantic waters through Friday. After that, the front
will dissipate over the central portion of the basin this

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