Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 141733

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1233 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...

The cold front extending from eastern Cuba to west of Jamaica
near 18N79W to near 10N82W in the SW Caribbean has become a
stationary front at 14/1500 UTC. Strong N winds are expected W of
the front through tonight. Winds will be minimal gale force within
60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua until this afternoon. The most
recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of strong to
minimal gale force winds behind the front, particularly between
12N-16N. Please see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Ghana/Cote
D`Ivoire boundary along the west coast of Africa, and continues
to 05N15W to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 01N30W to
01N40W to the Equator at 48W into NE Brazil. No significant
convection is noted.



High pressure of 1042 mb over the eastern United States extend a
ridge across the Gulf region. A 1035 mb high has developed over
eastern Mexico between Tampico and Tuxpan. Cold air stratocumulus
clouds cover much of the Gulf waters while persistent low clouds
are bankep up against the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Under
the influence of the ridge, mainly moderate to fresh northerly
winds are noted over the eastern half of the Gulf, with gentle to
moderate N-NE winds across the western half of the area. Seas are
generally in the 4-6 ft range, with the exception of 6-8 ft over
the SE waters based on altimeter data. The ridge will slowly move
eastward through Mon night. The next cold front is forecast to
enter the NW Gulf Tue afternoon, reach from the Florida panhandle
to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico Tue evening and move to
just SE of the area early on Wednesday. Fresh to strong winds, and
building seas are expected in the wake of the front.


The cold front over the Caribbean Sea has become stationary, and
now extends from eastern Cuba to west of Jamaica near 18N79W to
near 10N82W in the SW Caribbean. Please, see SPECIAL FEATURES
section for more details about this front. Cold air stratocumulus
clouds from the Gulf of Mexico are moving across western Cuba and
the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are along
the frontal boundary. Part of this convective activity is
affecting eastern Cuba and Jamaica. A surface trough is just ahead
of the front, and extends from 18N78W to 10N77W. An area of
cloudiness with embedded showers and tstms is associated with
trough, covering mainly the area 14N-18N between 76W and the
front. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted across the
remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean, with the exception
of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Strong
winds will continue to pulse near the NW Colombia coast each
night. Large swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical
Atlantic waters through Tue.


Isolated to scattered passing showers are expected across the
island over the next couple of days under the influence of a


As of 1500 UTC, a stationary front extends from 31N72W across the
central Bahamas and eastern Cuba. A wide band of cloudiness with
scattered showers and isolated tstms is associated with the front.
Part of this convective activity is affecting the SE Bahamas, and
Turks and Caicos Islands. Cold air stratocumulus clouds follow
the front forecast to remain nearly stationary on Mon. A second
cold front will quickly sweep across the NW waters tonight and Mon
and merge with the main front on Mon night. A large area of
cloudiness with embedded showers and tstms is over the central
Atlantic, and covers mainly the waters from 20N-28N between 50W-
60W. This activity is related to a surface trough, reflection of
an upper-level low. The pressure gradient between this trough and
strong high pressure to the N is producing strong to near gale
force near the northern end of the trough that extends from 26N56W
to 21N58W. The same ASCAST pass that shows these strong winds
also indicates the wind shift associated with the trough. The
trough will move westward, and a weak low is forecast by the
computer models to develop along the trough axis on Monday. The
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean is under the influence of a strong
1043 mb high pressure located near 39N41W. This system will shift
eastward over the next 24 hours.

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