Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 171035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 17/0900 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 365 nm SSE of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 30.0N 71.7W, moving north at
7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is from 29N-32N between 69W-75W.
Little change in intensity is expected during the next 24 hours.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 17/0900 UTC, Tropical Storm Lee was located about 685 nm west-
southwest of the Cape Verde Islands near 13.0N 35.4W, moving
west at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous
moderate convection is mainly south of the center within 60 nm
of 11.5N35W. Lee is expected to move west-northwest with little
change in intensity the next 24-48 hours. Please see the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC for more details.

At 17/0900 UTC, Tropical Storm Maria was located about 400 nm
ESE of the Lesser Antilles near 13.0N 54.9W, moving west at 13
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection in spiral bands that extend outward
up to 200 nm from the center. Maria is forecast to intensify,
and become a hurricane in the next 12-24 hours. Please see the
latest NHC Intermediate Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is along 70W south of
21N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of moderate
moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Minimal convection is
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave moving into Central America is along 86W south
of 22N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of deep
moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700
mb trough are both evident. Isolated convection is associated
with this wave.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
07N17W to 07N25W to 10N29W. Scattered moderate convection is
along the trough axis between 15W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico from 27N93W to
21N94W. Isolated showers are near the trough axis. In the upper
levels, an upper level high is over the W Gulf near 22N97W with
strong subsidence. An upper level trough is over the E Gulf with
axis along 85W. Minimal shower activity is associated with the
upper trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean. See above.
The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the Pacific
reaches the NW coast of Colombia and is producing isolated
moderate convection in the SW Caribbean. 10-20 kt winds prevail
in the Caribbean, with strongest winds in the central Caribbean.
Expect the tropical waves to continue moving west with scattered
showers. T.S. Maria is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles
as a hurricane, with marine conditions deteriorating Mon and Tue.

...HISPANIOLA...

Convective activity is minimal over Hispaniola. Expect diurnal
convection to develop in the afternoon hours the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, T.S. Lee and T.S. Maria. A
surface trough extends south of a stationary front N of the area
from 31N37W to 24N40W. The remainder of the basin remains under
the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high
centered near 34N52W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell



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