Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 201726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS
LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE
TITLED...IRVING AND MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THOSE AREAS. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS FORECAST BY METEO-FRANCE IS
FQNT50 LFPW. THE WEB ADDRESS FOR METEO-FRANCE IS WWW.METEO.FR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N45W
TO 5N48W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 43W-52W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N12W AND CONTINUES TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N17W
TO 7N23W TO 5N37W TO 9N45W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE AT 9N50W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 22W-32W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 89W-97W. FURTHER E...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SE GULF OF MEXICO
TO INCLUDE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 80W-89W.
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 87W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST AND
SPREAD E OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH
IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-84W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW VENEZUELA FROM 10N-
15N BETWEEN 68W-74W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA
FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 80W-85W...AND OVER JAMAICA... AND
HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE NE COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 61W-67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 80W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 21N63W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY VERY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND TUE
...WITH CONVECTION N OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO 28N70W TO
NEAR COCOA BEACH FLORIDA AT 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 25N55W MOVING N AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N56W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 21N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 49W-54W. A
996 MB GALE LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 33N22W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N14W TO 21N20W TO
18N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE LOW CENTER
FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 20W-25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N52W ENHANCING CONVECTION. A VERY
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
34N23W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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