Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AXNT20 KNHC 240546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 8N27W
7N35W AND 3N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 28W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 28W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 90W WESTWARD.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 23N87W...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND IN
TEXAS...FROM NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF TEXAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND THEN ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST LINE THROUGH THE FAR-WEST
OF TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS...
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO
NEAR 23N99W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGUL...
KGBK...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KMDJ...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...
KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED AT NEW IBERIA IN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ALSO IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
FROM NEW IBERIA EASTWARD...INCLUDING AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...TO ALABAMA...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR PERRY. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PANAMA CITY AND IN
MARIANNA...FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA/SAINT PETERSBURG
METROPOLITAN AREA...FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES...AND AT THE NAVAL
AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N75W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE EASTWARD. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT GOES FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND
50W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN HAVANA
CUBA...AND 0.23 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N79W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
17N86W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE FROM LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 275 NM TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND IT ENDS UP ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 360 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND IT ENDS UP
AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 410 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N75W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N40W AND 17N41W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 31N37W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N37W TO 27N50W 26N60W AND
27N69W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES 27N69W NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND
32N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS OCCURRING
IN THE WARM SECTOR...FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N40W...AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND
52W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
13N TO THE 32N34W 31N37W 27N69W 32N73W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.