Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 161748

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1248 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

A cold front extends into the discussion area near 32N68W SW to
the NW Bahamas across the Florida Straits to the northern coast of
the Yucatan peninsula near 22N88W. Near gale to gale force SW
winds are occurring generally N of 29N within 150 nm E of the
front. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
the Equator near 22W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-
07N between 08W-15W...S of 03N between 18W-28W...and S of 04N
between 35W-48W.


While west-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the
basin this afternoon...a cold front continues to extend from the
Florida Straits to the northern Yucatan peninsula coast near
22N88W then become stationary to the Chivela Pass region near
18N94W. Most precipitation associated with the front continues to
impact areas E of the front in the SW North Atlc waters.
Otherwise...a secondary push of cooler and drier air is progessing
southward across the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula
represented by a surface trough extending from the Tampa Bay
region to 26N90W. The boundaries are expected to merge across the
SW North Atlc waters tonight into Friday. Elsewhere...a ridge
continues to build in across the northern Gulf anchored currently
by a 1022 mb high centered across eastern Texas near 30N97W. The
high will move eastward through Friday providing the basin with
generally light to moderate anticyclonic winds. By Friday...S-SE
winds will reach moderate to fresh levels as cyclogenesis is
forecast to occur across the NW and north-central Gulf waters.

Upper level dry and stable south-southwesterly flow aloft prevails
over the Caribbean this afternoon providing for mainly tranquil
conditions at the surface. While skies remain mostly clear...the
main feature impacting the basin is a cold front extending across
the Yucatan Channel generating isolated showers across western
Cuba and the waters N of 21N W of 82W. The front is expected to
skirt across Cuba and the extreme northern Caribbean waters
through Friday...otherwise...gentle to moderate trades are
forecast to prevail and persist through Saturday. A localized
strong pressure gradient will establish itself off the coast of
Colombia by Friday night increasing winds in this region into
fresh to strong levels early Monday as strong high pressure is
anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc.

Mostly clear skies persist this afternoon across the island as
upper level dry air and stable conditions aloft prevail. The
overall tranquil weather pattern is expected the next few days.

A broad middle to upper level low is centered over the NE CONUS
and portions of eastern Canada providing troughing to much of the
western North Atlc. This troughing supports a cold front
extending into the discussion area near 32N68W SW to the NW
Bahamas through the Florida Straits. Aside from the near gale to
gale force conditions described above in the Special Features
section...scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 26N
within 180 nm E of the front. To the west of the front a secondary
push of cooler and drier air progresses southward in the form of a
surface trough extending from 29N78W to the Tampa Bay region and
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. These two boundaries are expected
to merge tonight into Friday as the entire frontal system moves
eastward. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026
mb high centered near 32N41W and a weakening 1025 mb high centered
near 32N28W. The only weakness in the ridging is a surface trough
within the eastern periphery of the ridge analyzed from SW of the
Canary Islands near 27N18W to SE of the Azores near 36N23W.

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