Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 211103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 22/1200 UTC,
consists of: the threat of NE near gale or gale in AGADIR,
CANARIAS, and CAP BLANC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to the Equator along 18W. The ITCZ continues
from the Equator along 18W, to 05S26W, 04S34W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within
a 30 nm radius of 03N03W, from 01N southward between 18W and 20W,
and within 60 nm of the coast of South America between 49W and
52W, and between 57W and 59W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level NW wind flow is moving across the open
waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
also is present in water vapor imagery, in the entire area.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
is near 30N77W, across northern sections of Florida, to a Gulf of
Mexico 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 27N88W, to the
coast of Mexico near 20N97W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KHQI, KGHB, KGRY, KVOA, and KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Kingsville. IFR/MVFR in Alice. MVFR in Bay City.
LIFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur. MVFR in Jasper and at the Houston
Hobby Airport. LIFR in Conroe. MVFR in Huntsville. LOUISIANA:
LIFR/IFR in the Lake Charles metropolitan area. LIFR in Lafayette
and New Iberia and Patterson. MVFR in Baton Rouge. LIFR/IFR
conditions are being observed around Lake Pontchartrain.
MISSISSIPPI: IFR in Gulfport. MVFR in Natchez and McComb. ALABAMA:
LIFR in Dothan. IFR in Evergreen and FT. Rucker. IFR in Gulf
Shores. IFR/MVFR in of Mobile. FLORIDA: LIFR in Crestview. MVFR in
Destin and Mary Esther. LIFR in the Panama City metropolitn area.
LIFR in Apalachicola. MVFR in Tallahassee.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow is to the east of the line that runs from
Hispaniola to NE coastal Nicaragua. Upper level W wind flow covers
the Caribbean Sea to the west of the same Hispaniola-to-NE
Nicaragua line.

A surface trough has been re-located to be along 63W/64W from 11N
to 18N. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the
northeast of the line from 17N72W 12N63W.

Rainshowers are possible from 17N southward between 78W and 88W,
including in parts of Central America from Honduras southward, in
areas of scattered to broken low level clouds.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the island. Anticyclonic
wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb also spans Hispaniola. Low level
clouds and possible rainshowers are inland, and in the coastal
waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: moderate rain.
MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling
1600 feet. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata:
MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area, with a ridge that is forecast to extend from
Colombia-to-07N94W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the
area. Hispaniola will be at to the SE and E of a trough that is
forecast to end up across Cuba at the end of 48 hours. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation
center will be on top of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour
forecast period. The anticyclonic center will move toward the NE
and dissipate. Expect SE and S wind flow at the end of day one.
Expect more SE and S wind flow during the first half of day two.
The forecast period will end with broad anticyclonic wind flow
and a ridge passing across Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 50W westward. The trough
supports a cold front that passes through 32N54W, to 24N60W and
19N69W at the eastern shores of the Dominican Republic. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 30 nm
to 45 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N51W to
30N52W, to 28N51W and 26N55W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N27W to 23N25W 12N29W and
06N33W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
10N northward between 20W and 50W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east and to the west of
the 32N54W 24N60W 19N69W Atlantic Ocean cold front. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10N northward between
Africa and the cold front. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near
30N77W, to the west of the cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT


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