Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 130603

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


The surface pressure gradient between high pressure anchored
across the W Atlantic and low pressure across northern South
America is producing gale force E-NE winds along the coast of
Colombia. The gale is forecast to end on 13/1200 UTC. See latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N20W to 01N30W to 02N36W to the South American coast near
02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon
trough from 01N-05N between 16W-20W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is along the ITCZ from 02S-06N between 20W-48W.



A 1022 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 27N87W
producing 10-15 anticyclonic winds over the Gulf. A cold front
is inland extending from central Alabama to E Texas to S Texas.
Radar imagery shows the front is presently void of convection.
Patchy fog mixed with broken low clouds are along the Texas
coast, and along the coast of the Florida Panhandle producing
possible IFR conditions. Fair weather is noted elsewhere. In the
upper levels, a large ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 93W
with very strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for the cold
front to dip over the N Gulf along 28N with showers over
Florida. Furthermore, expect a new cold front along the Texas
coast Tuesday evening with convection and 25 kt NW winds.


A gale is presently along the coast of N Colombia. See above. 15-
30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
The tail end of a quasi-stationary front is N of Puerto Rico and
over Hispaniola producing scattered showers. Residual surface
moisture in the form of scattered showers continues from
Hispaniola to Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras moving W with the
tradewinds. Elsewhere, a good amount of broken to overcast low
clouds with embedded showers are advecting over the Windward
Islands and N Venezuela, from the Atlantic. In the upper levels
zonal flow is over Central America and the Caribbean Sea with
very strong subsidence. Expect over the next 24 hours for the
front over the Atlantic to dip S and produce scattered showers
from the N Leeward Islands to S of Jamaica. Also expect residual
moisture to produce scattered showers from Jamaica to the Gulf
of Honduras. Meanwhile, expect more scattered showers over the S
Windward Islands and N Venezuela, within the tradewind flow.


Scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to the stationary
front. Expect these showers to move S over the next 24 hours.


A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 27N71W. A
1014 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N46W. A
cold front extends SW to 23N53W. A stationary front continues to
Hispaniola at 18N74W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
fronts. a stationary front extends from 32N35W to the Low at
28N46W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of this
front. A small 1016 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
23N36W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is
over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 30W-50W supporting
the frontal system. Expect in 24 hours for the central Atlantic
cold front to move E. Also expect a new cold front to move into
the W Atlantic from 32N61W to central Florida with showers.

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