Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING
BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RESUMING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01S15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02S26W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
05S35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO
03N BETWEEN 02W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07S TO 01N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...THUS
PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB LOW OVER OHIO SW TO A 1027 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS LOUISIANA TO 29N95W TO NE MEXICO
NEAR 23N97W. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ATLC EXTENDING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. OVER THE
SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 25N95W TO
19N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
GUATEMALA WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDING S OF 25N. HOWEVER...SW TO W
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT ADVECTS MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN GULF.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN SUPPORTS FOG N OF
26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES
OF FOG. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING...DISSIPATING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SIMILARLY...THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF WILL
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE SW
N ATLC LATER THAT DAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER...LESSER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
ADJACENT WATERS THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N80W SW TO 29N81W...ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO 29N83W TO COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W.
NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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