Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 210525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 5N20W TO 5N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 2N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 10W-14W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N
BETWEEN 14W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N86W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N89W TO
15N93W. 20 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF
93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF HAS 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN 97W-102W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM
27N-31N BETWEEN 81W-83W. THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE
GOES IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE GULF IS PRESENTLY
VOID OF ANY IFR FOG OR STRATUS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N82W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE
AND THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO S LOUISIANA TO S
TEXAS N OF CORPUS CHRISTI WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO COVER THE ENTIRE GULF WHILE THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES E TO THE N BAHAMAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N73W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE S COAST OF
CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE LOCATED OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...
AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SW TO W FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM AGAIN THU ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N69W. A 1011 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N50W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 31N47W TO 26N52W TO
25N59W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N48W TO 22N57W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N BETWEEN 35W-48W. A
1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 44N16W WITH SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 45W. A 2126 UTC ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A SMALL AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 10W-12W. OF NOTE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N69W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N47W ENHANCING THE SURFACE
FRONT. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 26N23W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE AND THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE E AT 15 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT GALE WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST OF MOROCCO UNTIL 1200 UTC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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