Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 57.6W AT 26/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 245 NM ESE OF ANTIGUA...MOVING W AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 24N36W TO 14N36W. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS WELL
NORTH OF THE WAVE TO NEAR 25N. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 700 MB
INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN 34W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 14N17W TO 10N23W TO 14N35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY S TO THE
CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE
GULF NEAR 29N83W TO 25N90W TO 28N96W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF 88W.
TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE GULF. ONE EXTENDS FROM 22N93W
TO 18N94W AND IS A WESTWARD MOVING DIURNAL TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY
SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 24N W OF 93W.
THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC TO S FL NEAR 26N80W TO 23N87W. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT
COVER THE SE GULF. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND SW GULF. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT COVER
THE NW GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF DANNY...EXTEND FROM
HISPANIOLA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N73W. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 15N W OF 76W. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IN DEEP MOISTURE WELL
AHEAD OF THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE REMNANTS OF DANNY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS HAITI. SHALLOW MOISTURE AND THIS TROUGH SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY IN SHALLOW MOISTURE. THE APPROACH
OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N75W TO S FL NEAR
26N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR
30N65W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N TO 30N
BETWEEN 61W AND 70W. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY IN THE FORM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND FROM 22N71W TO HAITI. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TROPICAL
STORM DANNY IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF FL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


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