Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 191103

805 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to 7N18W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 4N28W 5N45W to inland over South America near
5N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 60/75 NM of 7N between 47W-52W. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are from 2N to the coast of southwest Africa
east of 4W to across the Prime Meridian, within 120 NM north of
the ITCZ between 25W-38W, and from 6N-9N between 40W-44W.



A broad upper ridge anchored over Guatemala covers the Gulf of
Mexico with westerly winds aloft. Divergent flow aloft is
enhancing scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms over the
southeast Gulf south of 26N between 80W-86W. A diurnal surface
trough extends from 23N94W to inland over south Mexico to 17N93W
generating numerous showers/scattered thunderstorms inland over
Mexico and possible isolated showers over the Bay of Campeche
south of 20N between 92W-96W. A broad low amplitude upper trough
covers the northeast CONUS supporting a cold front that enters
the Gulf near the Florida/Alabama border along 29N90W to the
Texas coast near 29N95W then continues as a stationary front
across south Texas and north Mexico. A surface trough precedes
this front extending from southwest Georgia near 32N84W across
the Florida panhandle to 28N87W. A weak surface ridge extends
from the west Atlantic across south Florida to over the east
Gulf. This weak surface ridge will maintain southeast return
flow over the Gulf through Saturday. The frontal boundary across
the north Gulf will dissipate later today. A strong cold front
will move into the northwest Gulf Sunday.


The broad upper ridge anchored over Guatemala covers the west
Caribbean to 73W with near zonal westerly flow aloft across the
remainder of the Caribbean basin. Scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms are across the southwest Caribbean mainly south of
10N between 76W-83W. This is leaving the remainder of the
Caribbean with mostly clear skies except some lingering clouds
over the Gulf of Honduras. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic
will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the south-
central Caribbean through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds
will persist in the Gulf of Honduras through the weekend.


Skies have cleared across the island again this morning.
Moisture will remain limited through Friday night then increase
again for the remainder of the weekend. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms could still develop due to the strong easterly
trade winds coupled with daytime heating.


A shortwave upper trough over the west Atlantic is supporting a
cold front that enters the region near 32N70W and extends to
29N73W where a surface trough continues to the Bahamas near
25N78W with scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms within 45 nm east of the front/trough. Scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms are over the far west Atlantic
south of 28N west of 77W to inland over Florida. The remainder
of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored
by a 1031 mb high near 34N33W and a 1030 mb high near 32N40W,
extending a ridge axis southwest through 30N55W to across south
Florida and into the east Gulf of Mexico. The west Atlantic cold
front will stall and dissipate tonight into Friday. The next
strong cold front is expected Sunday.

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