Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 112338

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


Hurricane Ophelia is centered near 30.0N 36.1W at 11/2100 UTC or
660 nm SW of the Azores moving E at 3 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered numerous moderate convection is
from 29N-32N between 34W-38W. See the latest Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave extends from 07N47W to 15N44W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing and 850 mb relative
vorticity max along the wave axis near 11N. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 07N-12N between 44W-47W.

A tropical wave extends from 09N76W to 16N74W moving W at 10-15
kt. This wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing on the SW
periphery of a mid-level ridge axis. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 10N-14N between 73W-76W.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
06N28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from
06N28W to 06N39W to 09N46W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N-09N between 20W-28W.



A stationary front extends from SE Louisiana near 30N90W across
the NW Gulf to 25N96W to the coast of Mexico near 18N94W. A
surface trough extends from the front near 22N96W to 18N94W.
Scattered showers and few tstms are occurring S of 27N W of the
front. Farther east...a surface trough extends from the Florida
panhandle near 30N85W to 27N87W. A few showers are within 75 nm
of the trough. Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh easterly
winds prevail across the basin. The front across the W Gulf will
weaken to a trough and become diffuse through Friday. Moderate
to fresh NE winds are expected through the upcoming weekend.


Convection associated with an upper level low in the SW North
Atlc near 24N75W has diminished today. A tropical wave is moving
across the SW Caribbean and N Colombia. Widely scattered showers
and isolated tstms are occurring in the vicinity of the wave S
of 14N between 68W-77W. Otherwise...latest scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin.


An upper-level low centered N of the island near 24N75W is
expected to continue drifting west during the next couple of
days. Upper level divergent southwesterly flow is expected to
support an environment supportive of scattered showers and tstms
across the region.


Hurricane Ophelia is detailed above. An upper low centered in
the SW North Atlc near 24N75W is providing support for a pair of
surface troughs, one from 20N75W to 27N73W and the other from
20N68W to 27N63W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurring N of Puerto Rico from 18N-21N between 65W-68W...and
from 23N-27N between 72W-79W. Another area of scattered showers
and tstms is from 21N-25N between 45W-57W. The remainder of the
SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored
by a 1020 mb high centered near 34N53W. Surface ridging also
prevails in the E Atlc anchored high pressure near the Iberian

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