Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 141747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS LATE MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE EXPECTED
TO INITIATE BY 15/0000 UTC NORTH OF THE FRONT. STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY S OF 22N W OF
94W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N12W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S
OF 05W BETWEEN 04W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE SW GULF NEAR 20N94W AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS...MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE GULF GENERALLY N
OF 22N AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGHING BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SE
CONUS AND GULF BASIN. MOST PRECIPITATION REMAINS INLAND
STRETCHING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS NE TO MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE GULF BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG
NORTHERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
GULF TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH STORM FORCE WINDS
FORECAST S OF 22N W OF 94W BEGINNING 15/1800 UTC AND LASTING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME ON TUESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS HOWEVER ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED FROM THE COLOMBIA BASIN NW TO THE
YUCATAN BASIN. E OF 80W...UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES PREVAIL AND
REMAIN WITHIN MODERATELY DRY AIR. THE STABLE CONDITIONS REFLECT
TO THE SURFACE AS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE GENERALLY N OF 17N AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 77W. OTHERWISE...THE LAST IMPACT TO
MENTION IS THE STRONG TRADES OCCURRING S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-
77W...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE TRADES OCCURRING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A RECENT ASCAT PASS FROM
14/1418 UTC INDICATED E-NE WINDS RANGING 25 TO 30 KT S OF 12N
BETWEEN 74W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS GENERALLY
FAIR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOR
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND MAY MOVE INLAND BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
EMBEDDED WITHIN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC IS A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 24N64W NE TO 29N59W THAT IS
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 28N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 54W-61W TO THE EAST...AND FROM
22N-25N BETWEEN 63W-69W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 45N52W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE EASTERN
ATLC...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 34N28W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED EAST OF
THE AZORES NEAR 37N22W. WHILE THE WEAK AND BROAD SURFACE
TROUGHING EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS 26N...VERY LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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