Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 160538

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


At 16/0300 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose was located about
435 nm SW of Bermuda near 27.4N 71.0W, moving NW at 8 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 70 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous strong convection
is within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is elsewhere from 25N-30N between 68W-72W. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next 24-48 hours. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 16/0300 UTC, the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was
located about 435 nm WSW of the Cape Verde Islands near 12.8N
30.7W, moving WNW at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate strong convection is from 07N-
12N between 29W-36W. The depression is forecast to become a
tropical storm later today. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

A tropical wave in the central Atlc extending from 16N44W to
06N47W, with a 1011 mb surface low analyzed along the wave near
11.5N 46W, is moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of very
deep moisture noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is from 09N-15N between 44W-50W. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form
this weekend. There is a high chance for this system to become a
tropical cyclone within 48 hours.


A tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles has an axis
extending from 23N60W to 12N62W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is
in a region of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A
sharp 700 mb trough is also seen. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 15N-18N between 58W-62W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N77W to 10N79W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a
region of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface
trough and 700 mb trough are both seen. Scattered moderate
convection is over N Colombia and E Panama.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
13N28W. Aside from the convection related to T.D. Fourteen and
the two tropical waves, widely scattered moderate convection is
along the monsoon trough from 03N-05N between 16W-25W.



A surface trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico from
28N90.5W to 22N91.5W. In the upper levels, an upper level trough
is over the Gulf with axis along 92W. Upper level diffluence E
of the trough axis is supporting scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection over the E Gulf within 120 nm of a line from
28N86W to 20N91W. Expect the upper level trough to move E to
Florida over the next 48 hours, with convection persisting over
the E Gulf during the next 48 hours.


A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean waters,
and another wave is passing the Lesser Antilles, as noted above.
The eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough reaches
the NW coast of Colombia and is producing scattered scattered
moderate convection over the SW Caribbean S of 13N. Otherwise,
the outer rain bands associated with Hurricane Jose support
widely scattered showers in the central Caribbean, including
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, between 65W-73W. Winds across much
of the Caribbean remain in the gentle to moderate range due to a
weak surface pressure gradient.


Scattered showers are presently over Hispaniola, enhanced by
inflow into Hurricane Jose located far to the north. Expect
convection to continue over the island for the next few days.


Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, T.D. Fourteen, and a tropical
wave over the central Atlc with the potential to become a
tropical cyclone this weekend. Otherwise, a weakening cold front
that extends southward from 31N36W to 26N38W is expected to
dissipate overnight. The remainder of the basin remains under
the influence of a surface ridge.

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