Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 271904
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 76W UNTIL 1800 UTC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE BACK TO
GALE FORCE ON 0600 UTC SATURDAY UNTIL 1800 UTC SATURDAY...AND
AGAIN ON 0600 UTC SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

A GALE CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO...DUE TO A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE
METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-4N BETWEEN 1W-
36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO THE AFRICAN COAST E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US WITH SW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE GULF.
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MID WEST EXTENDS S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE FL STRAITS
NEAR 24N81W TO 22N87W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING S FL. NW WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE ENTIRE FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
WILL THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
BASIN WHILE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON
AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 42 HOURS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. 15-30 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS GENERATING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND IN CONTINUED EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 25N80W...INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. FARTHER
EAST...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED
JUST SE OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF
32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO TRANSITION
TO A SHEAR LINE BY SAT AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND
THEN THE SHEAR LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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