Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 140552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The 36-hour forecast, that starts at 14/0000 UTC, consists of
a cold front from 30N88W to 23N91W to 18N95W. Expect NW-to-N
gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet,
from 19N to 20N to the west of 95W. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N10W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 01N23W
01N40W, and to the equator along 50W. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N southward
from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep-layer trough cuts the central Atlantic Ocean, toward the
Mona Passage. A cold front passes through 32N60W 28N70W, the NW
Bahamas, South Florida near 26N81W, to 26N89W in the Gulf of
Mexico. The front is stationary from 26N89W to 29N94W. The front
is warm from 29N94W into South Texas. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 20N northward
from 50W westward in the Atlantic Ocean, and everywhere in the
Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible
in the Atlantic Ocean within 30 nm to 60 nm on either side of the
line that passes through 32N57W 28N66W 28N75W 28N80W. Rainshowers
are possible in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 40W
and 62W.

An upper level ridge is along 90W in the Gulf of Mexico.
Anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KXIH and KVBS.

MVFR: KBBF, KGBK, KGHB, KEIR, KSPR, and KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in the deep South, and from Hebbronville to Robstown.
LIFR/IFR/MVFR from Victoria-Port Lavaca-Palacios to the Houston
metropolitan area and surrounding smaller communities, to
Galveston, to Huntsville, and from Beaumont/Port Arthur to Jasper.
LOUISIANA: MVFR from Lake Pontchartrain southward from Galliano
westward. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA:
IFR at the Tampa Executive Airport, and throughout the rest of the
Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. MVFR in Sarasota. LIFR in
Punta Gorda. MVFR in Ft. Myers and Naples.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
area that is from 80W eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is
accompanying the deep layer trough that passes through the central
Atlantic Ocean to the Mona Passage, and beyond.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across the area.

Rainshowers are possible to the north of the line that extends
from 17N60W to 16N70W to 13N83W at the coast of Nicaragua.

24-HOUR rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 14/0000 UTC...
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level to upper level NW wind flow is present across the
area, with the central Atlantic Ocean-to-Mona Passage trough.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, as of 13/2200
UTC: VFR. towering cumulus clouds. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC:
Barahona, as of 14/0000 UTC: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. La
Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: MVFR.
ceiling 1800 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the 24 hours of the 48-hour forecast
period. Day two will start with W wind flow, becoming SW with a
ridge and anticyclonic wind flow everywhere. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will consist of NW wind
flow, with a ridge that starts in the western part of the
Caribbean Sea, and that moves into the central Caribbean Sea by
the end of day one. Expect SW and W wind flow for day two, as the
ridge continues to move toward the east. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that day one starts with NW wind flow, with a
ridge, followed by anticyclonic wind flow with an anticyclonic
circulation center that will move across the area. Day two will
consist of first SW wind flow, with the anticyclonic circulation
center to the east of Hispaniola, followed by anticyclonic wind
flow as the anticyclonic circulation center moves westward.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is about 500 nm to the east of Africa. A
surface trough is along 30N36N to 27N40W to 24N45W. A frontal
boundary is along and to the north of 32N between 30W and 50W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 28N northward between 17W and 30W.

Upper level W-to-SW wind flow moves across the islands of the
eastern Caribbean Sea, into the Atlantic Ocean, to the south of
20N60W 22N40W, beyond 23N17W.

A surface ridge passes through Morocco to a Canary Islands 1017 mb
high pressure center that is near 27N18W, to a second 1017 mb high
pressure center that is near 21N34W, to a 1016 mb high pressure
center that is near 21N53W, to 22N68W, beyond the Straits of
Florida.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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