Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 141803

AXNT20 KNHC 141733

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1233 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A significant pressure gradient between lower pressure across
South America and a ridge anchored across the SW North Atlantic
is generating gale force winds over the SW Caribbean Sea from
10.5N-12N between 74W-77W with NE winds 30-35 kt and seas 10-12
ft. This gale will linger another 6 hours, then low pressure
emerging from the east coast of the United states will weaken
the ridge over the western north Atlantic and cause winds in the
area to fall below gale force. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nigeria near 05N05E
to 05N04E. The intertropical convergence zone axis continues
from 05N04E to 03N06W to 04N14W, then resumes from 02N20W to
00N29W to north of the coast of South America near 02N47W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present
from 03S-05N between 04E-29W.



10-20 kt E to SE surface return flow continues over the Gulf of
Mexico. Convergent SE winds are producing patches of scattered
showers along the east coast of Mexico. An upper-level ridge
extends NE over the Gulf from Bay of Campeche to the Florida big
bend. A subsident air mass continues to cover the Gulf. This
overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist during the next
few days with no new frontal incursions expected.


Gale conditions continue along the coast of N Colombia. See the
special feature section for additional details. Otherwise, a
broad ridge of high pressure and deep layer subsidence remains
in place across the Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds across the
Caribbean will subside slightly during the next day or so in
response to the weakening of the ridge to the north, then
increase once again on Monday as the ridge rebuilds.


Fresh to strong NE winds continue across the island and adjacent
coastal waters. The winds will decrease slightly during the next
day or so as the ridge to the north weakens, then increase once
again on Monday. The relatively dry weather pattern will
continue as the ridge to the north stays in place.


A 1041 mb high is centered over coastal New England. A ridge
axis extends WSW to N Florida. A 1011 mb low is centered E of
the Lesser Antilles near 22N48W. A surface trough extends NE
through the low from 17N54W to 25N41W to 32N39W. Broad surface
troughing extends NNE from 06N51W to 22N44W. Scattered
convection associated with the low is found from 22N to 24N
between 46W and 49W. Scattered convection associated with the
trough is situated from 20N to 32N between 34W and 40W. An upper
level trough supporting these systems extends SW from 32N42W to
28N45W to 23N56W. During the next 24 hours the upper-level
trough will lift to the NE in response to the approach of a
broader mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. This will
remove the upper-level support for the low to the east of the
Lesser Antilles and allow it to dissipate. Otherwise, a frontal
boundary is expected to make an incursion into the waters N of
25N and W of 60W, then stall and weaken.

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