Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250521
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0300 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEVELOPED AND IT IS
LOCATED NEAR 14N47W. ERIKA IS MOVING W AT AROUND 17 KT AND IT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE A WNW TRAJECTORY WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMAL
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 28W FROM 14N-21N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 25W-29W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 20N16W TO A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 15N24W TO 15N34W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
BOUNDARY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO COVERING THE W GULF W OF 94W WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS IS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 24N96W TO 22N96W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. TO
THE NE...A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N93W. WITH
THIS...A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF
STATES SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE N-
CENTRAL GULF WATERS MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 89W-94W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES S AND STALL ALONG THE GULF STATES COASTLINE
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM CUBA
AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF 17N AND W OF 78W. TO THE E...A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N71W EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF
THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS W ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 66W. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY ARE A WEAK 1010 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 16N64W WITH SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 63W-66W AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SE
PUERTO RICO. BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE REMNANTS OF
DANNY TO DISSIPATE WHILE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL APPROACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. IN 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE REMNANTS OF DANNY CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SE PUERTO RICO TO MOVE S OF THE ISLAND
WHILE WEAKENING THEN DISSIPATE. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N79W COVERING THE AREA W OF 67W AND EXTENDING INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS BERMUDA TO 29N66W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 65W-75W. TO THE E...ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 45W-50W. A SURFACE
RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR
WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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