000
AXNT20 KNHC 090001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N44W TO 08N42W TO 06N39W MOVING W
AT 20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK AND RELATIVELY FAST
WESTWARD MOVING 700 MB TROUGH AND 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY IN
THE VICINITY OF 07N42W OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. A DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER REMAINS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS SOMEWHAT
LIMITING AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N51W TO 07N55W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO COINCIDE WITH A BROAD AND AMPLIFIED
700 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE ALSO REMAINING MOSTLY
EMBEDDED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER THUS RESULTING IN NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N92W TO 09N95W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
BROAD LOW-LEVEL ENERGY IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA S-SW INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
07N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N26W TO 05N40W TO 06N38W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR
01N50W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 16W-
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF FROM
27N80W TO 25N83W. AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNAL HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 80W-82W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER S LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N
BETWEEN 89W-93W...AND PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE INLAND OVER
MEXICO FROM 16N-29N BETWEEN 94W-111W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
85W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF
THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N... AND THE WESTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE. ALSO EXPECT MORE DEEP CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND
LOUISIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNAL MAXIMUM.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA...HAITI...N
GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ALL DUE TO AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DIURNAL HEATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER
HONDURAS...S GUATEMALA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND 20-30 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN S OF 17N...WITH HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A FAIRLY LARGE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER HAS SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FOR A FEW DAYS OVER CARIBBEAN
WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...
A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI E OF PORT-AU-
PRINCE NEAR 19N72W DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNAL HEATING.
CURRENTLY A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING OVER THE ISLAND
SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOST CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO OVER THE ISLAND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N49W TO
21N56W. ANOTHER 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR
37N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF
THE CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N
BAHAMAS N OF 24N BETWEEN 70W-80W. MORE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
CENTERED NEAR 27N53W AND 20N18W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA