


Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
932 AXNT20 KNHC 080556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Jul 8 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 31W from 02-16N. Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 48W from 03-18N. No significant convection or shower activity is seen with this wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 65W from the British Virgin Islands southward to central Venezuela. No significant convection or shower activity is seen with this wave. A NW Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 88W from the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula southward across central America and into the Eastern Pacific near 03N88W. This wave is enhancing convection over SE Mexico including the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, where numerous strong strong convection is ongoing. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring over the portions of the NW Caribbean near the Yucatan Channel. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Mauritania near 20N16W, then curves southwestward to 08N30W. An ITCZ is analyzed from 06N32W to 07N47W, where it is broken by a tropical wave. Another segment of the ITCZ is analyzed from 0849W to 09N58W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within ...GULF OF AMERICA... An elongated upper-level low across the central Gulf is triggering strong convection over the Bay of Campeche, along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Yucatan Channel. A weak 1019 mb high over the far SE Gulf is helping to maintain moderate to fresh E winds across the Gulf S of 24N, with seas of 2-5 ft also occurring in this region. Across the Gulf N of 24N, gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent surface winds beneath an upper-level low are leading to the development of scattered moderate convection over the Windward Passage and the adjacent northern Caribbean waters, as well as the coasts of Haiti and Cuba. A 1028 mb Bermuda High continues to support a trade- wind pattern for much of the Caribbean Sea. Some widely scattered showers are possible over the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds with 6-8 ft seas are evident in the south-central basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring in the northern Caribbean Passages. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-6 ft are occurring in the eastern, SW, and NW Caribbean. The remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two surface troughs are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms east of the Bahamas from 21N to 30N and between 64W and 75W. Otherwise, much of the Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge stemming from a 1030 mb high centered near 36N36W, and another 1028 mb high near 34N57W. This results in moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across the majority of the Atlantic N of 10N and E of 75W. Winds are locally fresh to strong in between the Canary Islands, along the north shore of Hispaniola, and also through the northern Caribbean Passages. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring W of 75W. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to build westward toward Florida and the Bahamas through the week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to strong E to SE winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Fri night. $$ Adams