Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 021756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 30.9W AT 02/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 455 NM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 9
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 28W-31W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N43W TO 17N44W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-50W AND
REMAINS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN
40W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N76W TO 18N73W MOVING W AT 25 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH RELATIVELY BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING
BETWEEN 70W-78W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N88W TO 17N90W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE LIES WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
28N76W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
12N16W TO 14N26W THEN RESUMES NEAR 13N32W TO 07N51W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N51W TO
06N54W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 44W...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N10W TO 14N22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR
28N95W. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IS PROVIDING MUCH OF
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR THE MAXIMUM AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-
30N BETWEEN 89W-96W. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK 1017 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N84W. SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS W-SW TO NEAR 27N89W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS SE GEORGIA...AND THE
BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 84W-90W.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS PERSIST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE SE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 17N80W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 74W.
ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF 15N BETWEEN 79W-86W IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 75W IS HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON THE CONVECTION WHICH
IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. FINALLY...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE USUAL HIGHER WINDS NOTED GENERALLY
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA COAST
BETWEEN 66W-76W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DUE LARGELY TO RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT AND
OVERALL STABILITY PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED OVER THE
TAMPA BAY REGION NEAR 28N83W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO
NEAR 25N61W. MUCH OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM 31N67W TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 29N-33N
BETWEEN 60W-67W...AND FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 73W-82W. TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS ACTIVITY...A PAIR OF HIGHS...ONE A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
28N76W...AND ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N67W ARE PROVIDING
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 27N BETWEEN 38W-52W. THE
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A WEAK 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N53W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 26N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
27N52W TO 34N40W. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N21W TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 20N51W. FINALLY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THE EASTERN ATLC IS TROPICAL STORM FRED AS IT TRACKS WNW ACROSS
THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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