Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 191734

205 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W to 08N17W where the ITCZ begins
and continues to 04N33W to over the South America coast near
05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 NM N of the
ITCZ and W of 46W while isolated convection is within 200 NM N
of the same boundary between 25W and 44W.



A frontal system extends across northern Mexico and the Gulf
states coastline as a stationary front to 28N91W then continues
as a cold front to 30N86W. To the E of the cold front, a surface
trough extends from 28N86W to 30N85W. Another surface trough
extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N95W to 27N89W. No
significant convection is related to any of these features. A
diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection
across the SE Gulf waters affecting the Florida Keys and Straits
from 23N-25N and E of 84W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle
to moderate easterly flow across the basin. Expect during the
next 24 hours for a surface low to form over southern Texas and
move E enhancing convection across the NW Gulf waters.


The broad area of high pressure that prevails across the
Atlantic extends SW reaching the Caribbean. The pressure
gradient generated by this high pressure combined with the low
pressure across northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong
trades across the central Caribbean mainly S of 15N between 70W-
78W. The proximity of the monsoon trough currently extending
over Costa Rica and Panama, is supporting scattered moderate
convection across S of 12n between 80W-84W. Moderate to fresh
trades prevail across the reminder of the basin, as noted in
scatterometer data. Low-level moisture transported by the trades
is generating isolated convection that is moving quickly across
the basin. Expect a similar weather patter to prevail during the
next 24 hours.


Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the island due to the strong easterly trade winds coupled
with daytime heating. This pattern will repeat tomorrow.


A shortwave upper-level trough over the west Atlantic is
supporting cloudiness and isolated moderate convection across
the area mainly W of 70W. A surface trough extends from 25N77W
to 29N73W, then transitions into a cold front from that point to
31N69W. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin
as a broad area of high pressure prevails, centered near 34N32W.
Expect during the next 24 hours for the cold front and trough to
drift E while weakening. Isolated convection will continue
across the W Atlantic.

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