Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 142339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST MON APR 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO ACCORDING TO THE 14/2100 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A COLD
FRONT IS ALONG 30N93W TO 27N96W. SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 30 NM OF
FRONT. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
30N88W TO 19N96W. STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEA
HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET FROM 22N TO 28N TO THE WEST OF 94W. THE 24-
HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 30N84W TO 19N92W.
STORM-FORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 13 TO 20 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...SEA HEIGHTS 13 TO 20
FEET.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF SIERRA
LEONE AND GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
5N17W TO 3N20W...TO AND ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W AND 33W...
TO 1S36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 6S BETWEEN 22W AND 51W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO 1S BETWEEN 13W
AND 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S.A...FROM KANSAS TO TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR
BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR...ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...TO THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS...CURVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN MEXICO
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF 1003
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 27N TO
29N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS THAT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KHQI...KGUL...KCRH...AND
KVBS...AND KDLP. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBBF...KVAF...
KHQI...KGUL...KEIR...KSPR AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 6500 FEET...
KATP...KMDJ AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...COVERING MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A
LOW LEVEL AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED
AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N60W TO
27N63W...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N71W...TO 17N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N61W
27N62W 24N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN A FEW CELLS IN CUBA NEAR 21N78W AND
23N81W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO
28N73W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N84W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE EAST OF 74W...AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE
FROM 10.5N TO 14.5W BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN IS THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE
WEST OF 84W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N60W TO
27N63W...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N71W...TO 17N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N61W
27N62W 24N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
85W.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN
SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN LA ROMANA AND IN PUNTA
CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
THAT IS CUTTING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST...GIVING WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF A WESTERN-TO-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N60W TO
27N63W...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N71W...TO 17N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N61W
27N62W 24N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N56W 26N59W
23N65W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N28W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N33W 15N45W AND 14N50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO
30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 33W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 29N48W 26N42W 23N30W
AND 24N17W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO
28N73W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N64W TO 31N60W.
EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. A SECOND AREA
OF CONCERN IS...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST
OF 74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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