Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 180531

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front continues to move across the Gulf region. The
front extends from a 1014 mb low pressure centered near 33N77W
and continues southwest across central Florida into the Gulf of
Mexico to near 26N82W to 22N91W to 19N92W. Gale-force winds are
occurring to the west of the front mainly south of 21N and west of
94W. Seas of 12-16 ft will prevail within the area of gale-force
winds. The front will continue moving southeast across the
southern portion of the basin through the night, with winds
weakening below warning criteria at 0600 UTC. Please read the
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters
Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

The low pressure currently located east of the South Carolina`s
coast will continue moving eastward into the western Atlantic
Ocean while deepening. This will induce an area of gale-force
winds today mainly north of 30N and behind the strong cold front
that is currently moving across the west Atlantic along and west
of 76W. The front will extend from 31N69W to eastern Cuba today,
then weaken southeast of the Bahamas from 24N65W to the Windward
Passage on Friday. Strong high pressure behind the front will
bring strong winds and high seas tot he area northeast of the
Bahamas through tonight. Please read the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the
latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, for
more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 07N11W to
03N18W. The ITCZ begins near 03N18W to 00N34W to 03N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within about 120 nm on either side
of the monsoon trough, while scattered showers prevail within 50
nm to the north of the ITCZ.



A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf region. See the
Special Features section for more details. A surface ridge
dominates the majority of the basin in the wake of the front.
Aside from the area with gale-force winds, scatterometer data
depicts fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the basin.
Winds will slightly weaken as the front and pressure gradient
relaxes across the basin through through the next 24 hours. Fresh
to locally strong southerly flow will set-up again across the
western Gulf and persist early this weekend ahead on the next
cold front forecast to reach the Texas coast by Sunday night.


The remnants of a stationary front were analyzed as a surface
trough that extends across the western Caribbean from 19N85W to
12N82W. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms
are noted west of 80W with this trough affecting the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. Patches of low-level moisture carried by
the trade wind flow are seen across the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea inducing showers. Moderate to fresh northeast winds
are seen in the lee of Cuba, and within about 60 nm of the coast
of Nicaragua. Fresh to strong winds are near the coast of
Colombia. The cold front currently moving across the Gulf of
Mexico will reach the northwest Caribbean this morning, then
extend from central Cuba to Honduras by tonight. Fresh to strong
winds and widespread showers are expected behind the front. Strong
trade winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia coast on Friday
night and then expand across much of the central Caribbean over
the weekend as high pressure builds north of the area.


Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated
showers will prevail for the next day or so over the island due
to the influence of a ridge. Computer models show an increasing of
moisture across Hispaniola toward the end of the work-week as a
cold front approaches from the west. Fresh northeast winds are
expected across the Windward Passage today through Saturday night
as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic in the wake
of the above mentioned front.


A strong cold front is moving across the west Atlantic from 31N77W
to 28N80W. See the Special Features section for more details
about this front and the Gale Warning in effect. To the east, a
forming cold front has developed extending from a 1014 mb surface
low near 34N73W to 24N75W. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of these features mainly west of 70W. A surface trough
extends from 30N65W to 25N65W with minimal convection at this
time. An upper-level low is reflected at the surface as a trough
that extends from 31N50W to a 1021 mb low near 28N47W to 21N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N between 36W-
46W. The strong high pressure near Azores dominates most of the
east and central Atlantic, and will move little through this

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